Abstract
In recent years, the spatial dynamics of mangrove ecosystems in China have exhibited a complex pattern of both restoration and degradation, reflecting the multifaceted and spatiotemporally heterogeneous impacts of human activities, yet these dynamics remain insufficiently understood. This study employs city-level panel data from 2003 to 2023 to investigate how coastal urban activities influence mangrove ecosystems across four dimensions: socioeconomic pressure, marine industrial development, pollution load and environmental governance, and ecosystem status. Using fixed effects models, spatiotemporal heterogeneity models, and moderation models, we identify the evolving impact mechanisms of urban coastal activities on mangroves, with particular attention to the moderating role of environmental protection investment. The empirical results reveal that industrial pollution and habitat fragmentation significantly suppress mangrove area. However, environmental protection investment plays a crucial moderating role in mitigating the negative impacts of marine industrial expansion, highlighting the irreplaceability of environmental governance to foster ecological–economic synergies. Regionally, the Pearl River Delta exhibits a pronounced negative effect from marine economic activities, whereas Guangxi demonstrates a strong moderating influence from environmental investment, resulting in an overall positive impact of urban activity factors. These findings offer robust empirical support for enhancing environmental governance and industrial restructuring in coastal cities, and provide theoretical and policy insights for developing resilience-oriented sustainable development strategies.
Subjects
- Ecology
- Environmental sciences
- Environmental social sciences
- Environmental studies
- Geography
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52472325), the National Social Science Fund of China (20VHQ006), Shenzhen Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project (SZ2024D005) and Shenzhen Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences. We would like to thank all the research team members of Shenzhen International Maritime Institute for their great efforts and contributions.
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Supplementary material03Mangrove_Sample_Points_lat02d (download CSV )
Supplementary material04mf_area (download XLSX )
Supplementary material05_statacoding (download DOCX )
Supplementary material06China_eco_soc_data09 (download XLSX )
Supplementary material07formula (download DOCX )
Supplementary material08bVariable full name_abbreviation_code name (download DOCX )
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stata02_VCM_TVCM
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She, S., Xu, J., Chen, J. et al. Impact mechanisms and policy regulation of human socioeconomic activities on mangrove evolution in China’s coastal cities.
Humanit Soc Sci Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-08499-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-026-08499-9
Source: Ecology - nature.com
