Abstract
Management decisions for novel wildlife threats are challenging to optimize due to deep ecological uncertainty, and multiple, often competing objectives. We present a transparent, transferable, multi-criteria decision framework that integrates quantitative forecasts of management outcomes with decision-maker value weights to identify robust strategies. Specifically, we evaluated options for responding to the imminent threat of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) to North American amphibians. We worked with managers across the northeastern United States to characterize the full complexity of their multi-criteria decision contexts for addressing Bsal risk. We provide quantitative evidence that, across a range of value weights and landscape contexts, acting ahead of invasion is an optimal strategy for mitigating disease risk. We find clear evidence that proactive management is optimal, but our results also show that local context affects the optimal management action. Though demonstrated with Bsal, our framework generalizes to other biosecurity threats, providing decision support that unites ecological prediction, structured decision making, and stakeholder values to meet conservation goals.
Subjects
- Ecology
- Environmental sciences
Acknowledgements
We are deeply grateful to the experts who contributed their expertise to our expert elicitation that informed this work. We thank T. Adams, S. Spencer, A. Brand, and R. Bernard for their contributions during the framing stages of this project, and S. Spencer, S. Koch, S. Flint, C. Utter, and D. Washington for providing Refuge Objective weights. The elicitations described in this information product does not meet the definition of human subject research under federal regulations (UMass HRPO Determination Number: 3740) and therefore does not require Institutional Review Board approval; Refuge managers participated by providing their professional opinions as part of their job duties. All participants that provided their expert opinions consented to participating in this project. All individuals who contributed their expertise on refuge and wildlife management were informed about the purpose of this research and voluntarily participated in this study; The survey described in this information product was organized and implemented by MCB and was not conducted on behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey. This is manuscript 936 of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) and manuscript 15 of the Disease Decision Analysis and Research (DDAR) group of the U.S. Geological Survey. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Work was conducted while Molly C. Bletz was serving as a visiting scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey.
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Bletz, M.C., Grant, E.H.C. & DiRenzo, G.V. Informing optimal management strategies for an emerging disease across a risk gradient.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-48428-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-48428-z
Keywords
- Structured decision making
- Disease
- Wildlife
- Proactive
- Decision science
- Amphibians
Source: Ecology - nature.com
