Abstract
Effective conservation of endangered large carnivores requires understanding demographic processes driving population recovery. We present the first comprehensive demographic analysis of the critically endangered Far Eastern leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Land of the Leopard National Park, Russia, using 10 years (2014–2023) of camera-trap data. Using spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) and open-population Cormack–Jolly–Seber models, we estimated population density, abundance, apparent survival, recruitment, and reproductive parameters, and assessed their relative contributions to population growth. Density increased nearly threefold from 0.89 to 2.64 individuals per 100 km2, with an average annual growth rate (λ) of 1.12 (95% CI 1.1–1.15). Adult apparent survival was high (0.79–0.91) and showed the highest elasticity (62.4%) in λ, while fecundity contributed 4.7%. Mean observed litter size was 1.5, which declined significantly over the study period, and sigma (an indicator of home range size) contraction was concurrent with an increase in density, suggesting incipient density dependence as the population approaches the estimated carrying capacity within the protected area. These findings demonstrate that the population recovery has been driven primarily by high adult survival due to enhanced protection rather than increased reproductive output. Conservation priorities should include facilitating range expansion and cross-border collaboration to ensure long-term population stability.
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Subjects
- Ecology
- Zoology
Acknowledgements
The authors express their gratitude to all colleagues who participated in the collection and processing of the data: A. Vikalova, M. Mazur, V. Storozhuk, A. Titov, D. Maksimova, E. Blidchenko, T. Petrov, G. Sedash, Y. Darman, E. Nikolaeva, R. Nazarenko, G. Kovach, K. Borodulina, and A. Krutikov. We appreciate the collaboration of Nezhinskoe Military Hunting Society and the Borisovskoye Interregional Branch of the Military Hunting Society of the Far Eastern Military District. Collaborative work for this study was supported by National Tiger Conservation Authority, Government of India.
Funding
This study was carried out as part of a state assignment from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation, with financial support from the ANOs “Far Eastern Leopards” and the “Wildlife Conservation Society”. Additional support was provided by the Wildcats Conservation Association, Liz Claiborne and Art Ortenberg Foundation, and the Robertson Foundation, and the AZA Tiger Conservation Campaign.
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Marchenkova, T.V., Matiukhina, D.S., Reebin, A.N. et al. Demographic drivers of the far eastern leopard population recovery.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-64589-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-64589-3
Keywords
- Amur leopard
- Camera trap-survey
- Multisession SCR
- Open population CR
- Population dynamics
- Carnivore
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