Abstract
Biodiversity researchers usually use projections from climate models to assess future risks associated with changes in the distribution of species and the composition of ecological communities. However, selecting the scenarios underlying these projections without a detailed understanding of their inherent assumptions carries risks. In this Perspective, we examine what climate-change scenarios are, what parts of these scenarios are useful for biodiversity research, which scenarios map most closely onto policy agendas, and how biodiversity researchers can make the best use of projections of future climate generated from these scenarios. Closer inspection of climate-change scenarios reveals hidden complexity that can confound even specialists and spark debate about their plausibility, but with careful caveats, biodiversity researchers can rely on the climate projections produced from these scenarios. Scenarios based on technological interventions designed to actively cool the climate are of increasing interest to policymakers owing to society’s ongoing failure to act decisively on emissions reduction. Projected responses of biodiversity to climate change will be most valuable to society when they address plausible futures targeted by policymakers. We aim to facilitate this goal with accessible discussions and pragmatic recommendations that are targeted specifically at the biodiversity research community.
Key points
Climate-change scenarios are deceptively complex, comprising a combination of narrative storylines and forcing pathways (temporal trends in phenomena that influence greenhouse-gas emissions) that yield the types of input needed by climate models to project future climate. Such projections are called climate-change pathways.
A climate-change scenario is considered plausible if its elements are internally coherent and consistent both with other elements of the scenario and with current knowledge; by this standard, many climate-change scenarios used in the biodiversity literature are technically implausible.
A climate-change pathway projected using an implausible climate-change scenario can remain relevant to policy, with the caveat that the climate-change pathway is associated with the emissions pathways derived from the scenario, and not with other assumptions underpinning the scenario.
Ongoing failure to implement emissions cuts means that deliberate intervention in the global climate system to slow and then reverse warming is increasingly appealing to policymakers; however, such ‘climate overshoot’ scenarios have not been common in IPCC Assessment Reports.
In the absence of useful climate-overshoot projections, biodiversity researchers should consider at least those climate-change scenarios that address questions pertinent to current climate policy (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5) and should carefully contextualize the use of extreme scenarios such as SSP5–5.8.
We encourage collaboration between the biodiversity and climate science communities to ensure that climate-change scenarios are more cognizant of biodiversity and therefore more relevant not only for biodiversity research, but also for policymakers.
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Acknowledgements
D.S.S., A.J.R. and J.D.E. were supported by Australian Research Council Discovery Project DP230102359. A.S.M. and C.H.T. were supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme through the RESCUE project (number 101056939). C.H.T. was supported by the AXA Research Fund.
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Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: https://wcrp-cmip.org/
Earth System Grid Foundation: https://aims2.llnl.gov/search
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: https://www.ipcc.ch/
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: https://www.ipbes.net/
IPCC Working Groups: https://www.ipcc.ch/working-groups/
Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework: https://www.cbd.int/gbf
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Sustainable Development Goals: https://sdgs.un.org/goals
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Glossary
- Assessment Report
(AR). An AR is a formal, comprehensive evaluation of knowledge on a topic, based on expert assessment of evidence and agreement within the recent peer-reviewed literature. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ARs assess climate change, its impacts and its future risks, whereas the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) AR assessed biodiversity, ecosystem services and their links to human wellbeing.
- Carbon dioxide removal
(CDR). Human activities designed to remove and durably store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. CDR can include enhancement of biological or geochemical carbon dioxide sinks, as well as Direct Air Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (DACCS).
- Climate-change pathways
Temporal trajectories projected by Earth system models for some environmental characteristic, which could be a feature of the climate, such as air/sea temperature or precipitation, or could be some other phenomenon associated with climate change, such as sea-level rise or ocean pH.
- Climate overshoot
The temporary exceedance of a specified level of global warming, such as 1.5 °C. Climate overshoot implies a peak followed by a decline in global warming, achieved through anthropogenic removal of carbon dioxide and/or other deliberate interventions that counteract one or more of the drivers of warming.
- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP). A climate modelling activity from the World Climate Research Programme that coordinates and archives climate model simulations based on shared model inputs by modelling groups from around the world.
- Earth system model
(ESM). A coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model that simulates interactions between the physical, chemical and biological processes of the global climate system, including a representation of the carbon cycle.
- Integrated Assessment Models
Models that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework; these models are one of the main tools for undertaking integrated assessments.
- Nationally Determined Contributions
The Parties to the Paris Agreement periodically determine their contributions towards its long-term goals. These national targets (or plans) are called Nationally Determined Contributions.
- Projection
A projection is what is expected to happen in the future under a given course of action (and/or other assumptions about the future) that might or might not be implemented. Earth system model outputs constitute projections, not predictions.
- Radiative forcing
The difference between the net downwards and upwards radiative flux (expressed in W m−2) at the tropopause (the top of the atmosphere), caused by a change in an (external) driver of climate change, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide, the concentration of volcanic aerosols or the output of the Sun.
- Radiatively active substance
An atmospheric component that interacts with incoming solar radiation (for example, some aerosols may block incoming radiation) or outgoing infrared radiation (for example, carbon dioxide, CH4 and water vapour, which can trap heat). These substances control radiative forcing and drive the greenhouse effect.
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Schoeman, D.S., Meyer, A.S., Poloczanska, E. et al. The policy relevance of climate-change scenarios for biodiversity research.
Nat. Rev. Biodivers. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44358-026-00193-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44358-026-00193-7
Source: Ecology - nature.com
