Abstract
Deforestation remains one of the greatest obstacles to limiting global warming, yet the economic mechanisms linking global supply chains to final consumers are poorly understood. Fine-scale satellite monitoring tracks where forests are lost, but rarely reveals who ultimately drives this loss through consumption. We further apply machine learning techniques to identify key socioeconomic drivers behind consumption-induced forest loss. Our results indicate that 38.15% of global forest loss—equating to approximately 5.01 Mha of the 13.12 Mha total in 2022—is embodied in international final demand, with five countries (Brazil, the United States, China, Indonesia, and Russia) accounting for 48.16% of global deforestation. China and Russia exhibit polarizing trends that amplify global forest pressures. Among the evaluated socioeconomic determinants, urbanization, manufacturing intensity, and domestic economic and conservation capacities emerge as the primary factors characterizing cross-national patterns of forest loss. This integrated framework offers a robust, data-driven foundation for advancing global forest conservation and promoting equitable responsibility across international supply chains.
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This work was supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (grant no. 52425005) and the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 52370189) awarded to S.Q. M.G. was supported by the Joint Funds of the Regional and National Science Fund of China (grant no. U25A20769) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (grant no. 2253100005).
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Liu, Z., Li, Y., Wang, X. et al. Forest loss is increasingly driven by international consumption.
Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04093-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-04093-8
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