Abstract
Coral reefs are increasingly threatened by marine heatwaves, prompting the need for proactive interventions that enhance coral thermal tolerance. Assisted evolution, which aims to accelerate natural adaptation rates, has emerged as a promising approach. However, programmes of assisted evolution must outpace the escalating frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves. Here, we present a Roadmap for accelerating progress towards using assisted evolution to enhance coral thermal tolerance. We highlight advances in coral biology across cellular, organismal, and ecological scales that support the feasibility of assisted evolution in coral populations. We compare current experimental gains in thermal tolerance via assisted evolution with projected temperatures, finding that these are unlikely to keep pace with predicted climate change. We identify key knowledge gaps that hinder timely development of assisted evolution and propose a comprehensive research agenda to address these gaps. This agenda will be catalysed by large-scale, multi-institutional field hubs increasing experimental scope and statistical power, support for long-term research at these hubs, spanning coral generations, and development and application of methodologies that safeguard broodstock and experimental corals from disturbances. By implementing these proposals, scientists can realize the potential of assisted evolution and help to safeguard a future for coral reefs.
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Acknowledgements
Our perspectives stemmed from a 3-day workshop, organized by CORDAP and held in Saudi Arabia at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. Funding for the workshop attended by the authors of this manuscript was provided by the Global Coral R&D Accelerator Platform (CORDAP.org).
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Glossary
- Asexual propagation
Coral colonies arise from mitotic division of primary polyps and can also result from fragmentation via fission, release of asexual larvae or polyp bail-out.
- Breeding values
The average trait value of an individual’s offspring, with the variance among individuals providing an estimate of additive genetic variance.
- Broadcast spawning species
Corals that reproduce by releasing gametes into the water for external fertilization, in which larvae develop while drifting before settling on the reef substrate.
- Broad-sense heritability (H
2) The proportion of total phenotypic variance (VP) in a trait attributable to the total genetic variance (VG), including additive, dominance and epistatic effects (H2 = VG/VP).
- Brooding species
Corals that release sperm into the water, which travels to female corals and fertilizes eggs internally, producing larvae that are released and typically settle near the parent coral.
- Degree heating weeks
(DHWs). Measure of accumulated heat stress on coral reefs, calculated by summing the weekly temperature anomalies above the maximum monthly mean over a 12-week period.
- Dominance
Interaction between alleles at a single locus in which one allele (dominant) masks or suppresses the expression of another allele (recessive) in a heterozygous individual.
- Eco-evolutionary parameters
Variables that quantify interactions between ecological and evolutionary processes such as genetic variance, heritability, population size and vital rates.
- Epistasis
Interaction between genes at different loci, in which the expression of one gene masks or modifies the expression of another gene.
- Fitness
The ability of an organism to survive and reproduce and pass on its genes to the next generation, often quantified in terms of reproductive success.
- Genetic covariances
A measure of how two traits vary together owing to shared genetic influences, quantified as the correlation between their additive genetic contribution.
- Genetic gain
Improvement in the average performance of a population for a trait by selecting individuals with desirable genetics, measured as the generational increase in trait mean.
- Linkage disequilibrium
The nonrandom association of alleles at different loci, in which certain allele combinations occur more frequently than expected by chance.
- Narrow-sense heritability (h
2) The proportion of phenotypic variance (VP) arising from additive genetic variance (VA) of a trait (h2 = VA/VP), predicting trait’s response to selection.
- Pleiotropy
When a single gene influences multiple seemingly unrelated traits.
- Reference population
Group of individuals with both known genotypes and phenotypes that is used to train a statistical model.
- Sexual propagation
Production of genetically unique offspring through the fusion of male and female gametes (eggs and sperm).
- Spawn slicks
A floating aggregation of coral eggs and sperm formed on the ocean surface during mass spawning events when multiple coral species release gametes simultaneously.
- Thermal tolerance
The ability of an organism to survive thermal stress, in this case for corals to survive marine heatwave stress.
- Vital rates
Demographic metrics (fecundity, growth, mortality, immigration and emigration) that determine population dynamics and evolutionary trajectories.
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Humanes, A., Bay, L., Riginos, C. et al. Accelerating coral assisted evolution to keep pace with climate change.
Nat. Rev. Biodivers. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44358-026-00147-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44358-026-00147-z
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