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An individual-based model of North Pacific albacore tuna seasonal migratory behaviour and climate sensitivity

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Abstract

Juvenile North Pacific albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) undertake annual long distance migrations between offshore waters and the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), yet the drivers of the timing of these movements remain unclear. Highly migratory marine predators like albacore often use environmental cues to track seasonal resources and optimize foraging. Mixed layer depth (MLD), defined as the well-mixed surface layer of the ocean, has previously been associated with important albacore physiological and behavioral patterns. Using electronic tagging data and an individual-based model (IBM) we show MLD has a pivotal role in influencing albacore migration timing and depth preferences. Albacore actively expand their vertical habitat in correspondence with wintertime MLD deepening and appear to utilize a 30m MLD threshold to initiate preemptive movements to reach seasonally and spatially explicit foraging resources. Model simulations using MLD-based rules and an ocean sea surface temperature (SST) constraint successfully capture the seasonality of movements and distribution of albacore. Climate projections suggest that by 2070–2099, SST warming will shift albacore distributions poleward and MLD shoaling will prolong their coastal residence, potentially increasing albacore concentrations in the Northern CCLME. These findings highlight the relevance of subsurface ocean conditions to the movement of highly migratory species and demonstrate the utility of IBMs in the study of complex migratory behaviors.

Data availability

Data from tags available through the Albacore Archival Tagging Program are not posted publicly at the request of the Albacore Research Foundation, but can be made available upon request to LAD. This study has been conducted using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information; GLORYS 12V1 product (https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00021). This study uses output data from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble products originally accessed from the NOAA’s Climate Projection Web Portal (https://psl.noaa.gov/ipcc; https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00035.1; Scott et al., 2016). They can now be found on the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory Climate Data Repository (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/CMIP6/). The MATLAB code used to analyze the data and produce the figures can be found here: https://github.com/lorenzodavidson-git/Albacore-Tuna-Scientific-Reports.git.

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Acknowledgements

This research was conducted as part of the Brown University Ocean, Climate, and Ecosystem Data Science Internship Program (https://www.ocean.brown.edu/oce-internship). R. Gasbarro provided helpful comments to an earlier draft of the manuscript. We thank the captains and crew of all vessels which released and recaptured albacore, including commercial and sport fishermen. We thank the Albacore Research Foundation for their support of research using the albacore tagging program data, as well as John Childers and Suzy Kohin, who were instrumental in developing the program.

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

    Lorenzo A. Davidson, Constance M. Erdozain & Emanuele Di Lorenzo

  2. Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Cayla R. Drake

  3. Institute of Marine Sciences Fisheries Collaborative Program, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA

    Barbara A. Muhling

  4. Thomas More University, Crestview Hills, KY, USA

    Stephanie S. Koch

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  1. Lorenzo A. Davidson
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  2. Constance M. Erdozain
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  3. Cayla R. Drake
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  4. Emanuele Di Lorenzo
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  5. Barbara A. Muhling
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  6. Stephanie S. Koch
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Contributions

LAD, CE, and CD contributed to all aspects of this study and share first authorship. EDL, BAM, and SSK contributed to the study design. EDL, LAD, CE and CD led data analysis and visualization. EDL, BAM and SSK advised on data analysis and interpretation of results. LAD led the writing of the manuscript with CE and CD and contributions from EDL, BAM, and SSK.

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Lorenzo A. Davidson.

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Davidson, L.A., Erdozain, C.M., Drake, C.R. et al. An individual-based model of North Pacific albacore tuna seasonal migratory behaviour and climate sensitivity.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46968-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46968-y

Keywords

  • Albacore tuna
  • Individual-based model
  • Mixed layer depth
  • Migration phenology

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