Abstract
Knowing the optimum germination temperatures of endangered plants, as well as the magnitude of climate changes (e.g., rising temperatures) across the spatial range of these species, is essential to assess the level of threat for such species and, consequently, to implement tailored and enduring conservation programs. These analyses should be also integrated by the study of land-cover changes, which can act as an indicator of landscape fragmentation and, therefore, as a proxy of gene flow across metapopulations of species of conservation interest. This study, in particular, investigated both the germination behavior of Muscari gussonei, Petagnaea gussonei and Poterium spinosum, and the trends of climate and land-cover changes occurred in the distributional areas of these species. M. gussonei and P. gussonei are two endangered and narrowly distributed endemic plants from Sicily (Italy), whereas P. spinosum is another biogeographically important species with a highly scattered range across south-eastern Sicily. All the studied plants showed the same narrow germination optimum of 10–15 °C, but different final germination percentage (FGP): 82–98% in M. gussonei, 10–38% in P. gussonei, 5–61% in fruits and 21–68% in seeds of P. spinosum. These optimum germination temperatures are low and limited and, therefore, make the three species much more vulnerable to ever-rising temperatures, which specifically increased by up to 2 °C in the period 1931–2020. Similarly, across the species ranges during 2000–2018, the analysis of CORINE Land Cover classes showed highly fragmented landscapes, where forest and seminatural areas (class 3) declined, and agricultural areas (class 2) increased. The ongoing climate changes will make the suitable germination temperatures harder to be reached by plants with low and narrow germination optimum, such as M. gussonei, P. gussonei and P. spinosum, whose survival is further threatened by a complex fragmented territory with declining natural areas.
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are not openly available due to reasons of sensitivity and are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Data are located in controlled access data storage at the Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (Catania University, Italy).
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Funding
This study was partially funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, National Operation Program (Programma Operativo Nazionale – PON), Research and Innovation, Green Themes, Action IV. 6. Project Title “Conservation of species and habitats of community importance: seed biology, ex situ and in situ conservation” (D.M. 1062, 10/08/2021). The authors are thankful to all the people who gave assistance during field activities and laboratory experiments.
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The authors declare that they contributed equally to each part of the manuscript. G. B.: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing original draft, Writing review & editing. V. V.: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing original draft, Writing review & editing.
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The authors of this paper, Giuseppe Bonanno and Vincenzo Veneziano, undertook the formal identification of all the plant material collected in this study. The permission to collect specimens of Muscari gussonei, Petagnaea gussonei and Poterium spinosum was granted by the Regional Government of Sicily. Plant collection and use were in accordance with the relevant institutional, national and international guidelines and legislation. Specifically, in compliance with the collection permission, all specimens were < 10% of the sampled populations. The authors declare that they complied with the IUCN Policy Statement on Research Involving Species at Risk of Extinction, and the Convention on the Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora. Voucher specimens were deposited in the public herbarium of the Botanical Garden of Catania University (Italy). Specimens were collected, identified and deposited by the authors of this article.
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Bonanno, G., Veneziano, V. Analysis of climate changes, habitat fragmentation and germination behavior in Muscari gussonei, Petagnaea gussonei and Poterium spinosum, three Mediterranean plants of conservation interest.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46658-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46658-9
Keywords
- Mediterranean endemic plants
- Global warming
- CORINE land cover
- Germination performance
In situ and ex situ conservation- Sicily
Source: Ecology - nature.com
