Search

Menu
Search
in Ecology

Antarctic Sanctuary: fishing effort responses to an international MPA in the Southern Ocean

187 Views


Abstract

While the impacts of marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely studied, empirical evidence on MPAs established beyond national jurisdiction remains limited. This study provides the first ex-post assessment of how fishers adjusted their effort in response to the establishment of the world’s largest international MPA in the Southern Ocean. The study examines compliance with regulations designed to deter fishing effort around the MPA boundary and how fleets in the area adapted their fishing patterns after its establishment. Using high-resolution vessel tracking data and exploiting quasi-random variation induced by the geographical boundaries of the MPA, we find that the implementation of the MPA led to between 64% and 73% reduction in fishing effort around its boundaries. Since target species remained unchanged and catch volumes and limits were largely stable in this region, the main consequence of the MPA appears to be the displacement of fishing effort to areas surrounding its boundaries. Using vessel-level data over the periods before and after the establishment of the MPA, we also find limited evidence that vessels operating near the MPA before its implementation exited the fishery or significantly adjusted their overall operation hours at sea. Instead, these vessels reduced fishing hours while increasing non-fishing activities at sea, compared to vessels operating under comparable conditions. Our results suggest that effective MPA compliance can be achieved in international waters where sovereign fishing states compete over shared resources, while it may increase fishing costs in the short run due to the loss of historical fishing grounds.

Similar content being viewed by others

Bridging the gap in fishing effort mapping: a spatially-explicit fisheries dataset for Campanian MPAs, Italy

Article
Open access
09 January 2024

Fishery bycatch rates largely driven by variation in individual vessel behaviour

Article

08 August 2025

A database of mapped global fishing activity 1950–2017

Article
Open access
08 January 2024

Data availability

All data used in the analysis are publicly available: AIS fishing effort data are available from the Global Fishing Watch website (https://globalfishingwatch.org/datasets-and-code/). Data on MPA boundaries in the Southern Ocean are available from CCAMLR’s GIS website (https://gis.ccamlr.org/). Ocean productivity data are available from the Oregon State University website (https://orca.science.oregonstate.edu/index.php). Bathymetric data are available from the General Bathymetric Chart of Oceans website (https://www.gebco.net/data-products/gridded-bathymetry-data).

Code availability

All code necessary to replicate the analysis is available on GitHub at: https://github.com/ylu27/Ross-Sea-MPA-Replication.

References

  1. Sala, E. et al. Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate. Nature 592, 397–402 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Levhari, D. & Mirman, L. J. The great fish war: an example using a dynamic Cournot-Nash solution. Bell J. Econ. 11, 322–334 (1980).

    Google Scholar 

  3. McWhinnie, S. F. The tragedy of the commons in international fisheries: an empirical examination. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 57, 321–333 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  4. Munro, G. R. The optimal management of transboundary renewable resources. Can. J. Econ. 12, 355 (1979).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Hannesson, R. Fishing as a supergame. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 32, 309–322 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bjørndal, T., Kaitala, V., Lindroos, M. & Munro, G. R. The management of high seas fisheries. Ann. Oper. Res. 94, 183–196 (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Pintassilgo, P. & Duarte, C. C. The new-member problem in the cooperative management of high seas fisheries. Mar. Resour. Econ. 15, 361–378 (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Crothers, G. T. (STAN) & Nelson, L. High seas fisheries governance: a framework for the future?. Mar. Resour. Econ. 21, 341–353 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Hilborn, R. Moving to sustainability by learning from successful fisheries. Ambio 36, 296–303 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Haas, B., McGee, J., Fleming, A. & Haward, M. Factors influencing the performance of regional fisheries management organizations. Mar. Policy 113, 103787 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  11. United Nations. Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction. United Nations. (2023).

  12. Lester, S. et al. Biological effects within no-take marine reserves: a global synthesis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 384, 33–46 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Costello, C. & Molina, R. Transboundary marine protected areas. Resour. Energy Econ. 65, 101239 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Herrera, G. E., Moeller, H. V. & Neubert, M. G. High-seas fish wars generate marine reserves. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 113, 3767–3772 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Sumaila, U. R. et al. Winners and losers in a world where the high seas is closed to fishing. Sci. Rep. 5, 8481 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  16. White, C. & Costello, C. Close the high seas to fishing? PLoS Biol. 12, e1001826 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  17. UNEP-WCMC & IUCN. Protected planet: The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) and the World Database on Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (WD-OECM). UNEP-WCMC. https://www.protectedplanet.net (2025).

  18. Sala, E. et al. The economics of fishing the high seas. Sci. Adv. 4, eaat2504 (2018).

  19. Palacios-Abrantes, J. et al. Climate change drives shifts in straddling fish stocks in the world’s ocean. Sci. Adv. 11, eadq5976 (2025).

  20. Cruz, L., Pennino, M. & Lopes, P. Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 1093–1100 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Elvidge, C., Zhizhin, M., Baugh, K. & Hsu, F.-C. Automatic boat identification system for VIIRS low light imaging data. Remote Sens. 7, 3020–3036 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Kroodsma, D. A. et al. Tracking the global footprint of fisheries. Science 359, 904–908 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Paolo, F. S. et al. Satellite mapping reveals extensive industrial activity at sea. Nature 625, 85–91 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  24. CCAMLR. Fishery Summary 2023: Dissostichus Mawsoni in Subarea 88.1. CCAMLR. https://fishdocs.ccamlr.org/FishSum_881_TOA_2023.html (2024).

  25. Neal, T. Estimating the effectiveness of forest protection using regression discontinuity. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 127, 103021 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Englander, G. Property rights and the protection of global marine resources. Nat. Sustain. 2, 981–987 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Grembi, V., Nannicini, T. & Troiano, U. Do fiscal rules matter? Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ. 8, 1–30 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  28. McDermott, G. R., Meng, K. C., McDonald, G. G. & Costello, C. J. The blue paradox: Preemptive overfishing in marine reserves. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 116, 5319–5325 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  29. CCAMLR. Conservation Measure 91-05: Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area. CCAMLR. (2016).

  30. Brooks, C. M. et al. The Ross Sea, Antarctica: a highly protected MPA in international waters. Mar. Policy. 134, 104795 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Reimer, M. N. & Haynie, A. C. Mechanisms matter for evaluating the economic impacts of marine reserves. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 88, 427–446 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Feng, C. Research on the implementation and practice of the CCAMLR System of Inspection. Polar Rec. 59, e35 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  33. McBride, M. M. et al. Krill, climate, and contrasting future scenarios for Arctic and Antarctic fisheries. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71, 1934–1955 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  34. Brooks, C. M. et al. Protect global values of the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Science 378, 477–479 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Ferraro, P. J., Sanchirico, J. N. & Smith, M. D. Causal inference in coupled human and natural systems. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 116, 5311–5318 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  36. Lynham, J., Nikolaev, A., Raynor, J., Vilela, T. & Villaseñor-Derbez, J. C. Impact of two of the world’s largest protected areas on longline fishery catch rates. Nat. Commun. 11, 979 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Nichols, R., Yamazaki, S. & Jennings, S. How did a network of marine protected areas impact adjacent fisheries? Evidence from Australia. Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 65, 119–142 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  38. CCAMLR. Conservation Measure 10–02. CCAMLR. (2022).

  39. Stevens, D. W., Dunn, M. R., Pinkerton, M. H. & Forman, J. S. Diet of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) from the continental slope and oceanic features of the Ross Sea region, Antarctica. Antarct. Sci. 26, 502–512 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Constable, A. J. Lessons from CCAMLR on the implementation of the ecosystem approach to managing fisheries. Fish. Fish. 12, 138–151 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  41. CCAMLR. Conservation Measure. 51–07. CCAMLR. (2009).

  42. CCAMLR. Conservation Measure. 51–01. CCAMLR. (2010).

  43. Mormede, S., Devine, J., Gruss, A. & Dunn, A. Assessment model for Antarctic Toothfish (Dissostichus Mawsoni) in the Ross Sea region to 2022/23. CCAMLR. (2023).

  44. Hill, S. et al. Is current management of the Antarctic krill fishery in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean precautionary? CCAMLR Sci. 23, 31–51 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Babcock, R. C. et al. Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential rates of change in direct and indirect effects. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 107, 18256–18261 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  46. CCAMLR. Fishery report 2023: Euphausia Superba in Area 48. CCAMLR. (2024).

  47. CCAMLR. Conservation Measure 24–01. CCAMLR. (2023).

  48. CCAMLR. Conservation Measure 51–04. CCAMLR. (2023).

  49. Sorensen, J., Echard, J. & Weil, R. From bad to worse: the impact of COVID-19 on commercial fisheries workers. J. Agromedicine 25, 388–391 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  50. Watson, R. A. A database of global marine commercial, small-scale, illegal and unreported fisheries catch 1950–2014. Sci. Data 4, 170039 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  51. Smith, W. O., Ainley, D. G. & Cattaneo-Vietti, R. Trophic interactions within the Ross Sea continental shelf ecosystem. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 362, 95–111 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  52. Brodeur, A., Clark, A. E., Fleche, S. & Powdthavee, N. COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: evidence from Google Trends. J. Public Econ. 193, 104346 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  53. Axbard, S. Income opportunities and sea piracy in Indonesia: Evidence from satellite data. Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ. 8, 154–194 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  54. Lu, Y. & Yamazaki, S. Fish to fight: does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia? World Dev. 170, 106337 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  55. Di Blasi, D. et al. The challenge to observe Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) under fast ice. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 9, 255 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  56. CCAMLR. List of Authorised Vessels. CCAMLR. https://www.ccamlr.org/en/compliance/authorised-vessels-0 (2023).

  57. CCAMLR. Conservation Measure 10-04. CCAMLR. (2018).

  58. IMO. Revised Guidelines for the Onboard Operational Use of Shipborne Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). IMO. (2015).

  59. Taconet, M., Kroodsma, D. & Fernandes, J.A. Global Atlas of AIS-based Fishing Activity – Challenges and Opportunities. FAO. (2019).

  60. Fournier, M., Casey Hilliard, R., Rezaee, S. & Pelot, R. Past, present, and future of the satellite-based automatic identification system: areas of applications (2004–2016). WMU J. Marit. Aff. 17, 311–345 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  61. ASOC. Enhancing CCAMLR’s Compliance Regime. CCAMLR. (2020).

  62. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. Anti-Shipping Activity Messages. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. (2024).

  63. Welch, H. et al. Hot spots of unseen fishing vessels. Sci. Adv. 8, eabq2109 (2022).

  64. CCAMLR. MPA Planning Domains. CCAMLR. (2018).

  65. Cunningham, B., LaRiviere, J. & Wichman, C. J. Clustered into control: Heterogeneous causal impacts of water infrastructure failure. Econ. Inq. 59, 1417–1439 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  66. Roth, J., Sant’Anna, P. H. C., Bilinski, A. & Poe, J. What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature. J. Econ. 235, 2218–2244 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  67. Rambachan, A. & Roth, J. A more credible approach to parallel trends. Rev. Econ. Stud. 90, 2555–2591 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Tasmania Graduate Research Scholarship provided by the University of Tasmania. The authors are grateful to the editor and reviewers for their constructive comments, which greatly improved the manuscript. The authors also thank participants at the ACE, AAEA, AARES, ESAM, IIFET, J-Tree, and Monash Environmental Economics conferences and workshops for their valuable feedback on earlier versions of this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

    Yifan Lu & Satoshi Yamazaki

  2. Department of Fish Biology, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany

    Yifan Lu

Authors

  1. Yifan Lu
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Satoshi Yamazaki
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Y.L.: Conceptualisation, Methodology, Data curation, Formal analysis, Visualisation, Writing – Original Draft. S.Y.: Conceptualisation, Methodology, Formal analysis, Visualisation, Writing – Original Draft.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to
Satoshi Yamazaki.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary materials (download PDF )

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lu, Y., Yamazaki, S. Antarctic Sanctuary: fishing effort responses to an international MPA in the Southern Ocean.
npj Ocean Sustain (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-026-00193-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-026-00193-2

Source: Ecology - nature.com

The de novo transcriptome of the freshwater copepod Cyclops abyssorum tatricus reveals high-elevation adaptation

ENSO-modulated heat source and moisture sink of Asian monsoon and its impact on rice production

This portal is not a newspaper as it is updated without periodicity. It cannot be considered an editorial product pursuant to law n. 62 of 7.03.2001. The author of the portal is not responsible for the content of comments to posts, the content of the linked sites. Some texts or images included in this portal are taken from the internet and, therefore, considered to be in the public domain; if their publication is violated, the copyright will be promptly communicated via e-mail. They will be immediately removed.

Back to Top
Close