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Asymmetric temperature responses to soil moisture drought legacies under anthropogenic forcing


Abstract

As anthropogenic forcing intensifies, soil moisture droughts have become prevalent across many regions. Soil moisture anomalies can influence near-surface air temperature by modulating both energy and carbon fluxes. However, the annual temperature response to soil moisture anomalies in the year following a soil moisture drought remains unclear. Here, we show that annual soil water loss in the year after soil moisture droughts induces a larger annual warming effect than the annual cooling from an equivalent water gain. This asymmetric response arises only when the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing are included, where vegetation is more strongly suppressed after soil moisture drought than enhanced after soil moisture gaining, contributing to reduced transpiration and carbon uptake that collectively amplify warming. More than 60% of global land areas exhibit the asymmetry. Our findings suggest that past climate extremes may accelerate future warming by impairing vegetation’s capacity to regulate biophysical and biogeochemical processes.

Acknowledgments

X.L. acknowledges the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (grant no. 42225107). J.L. acknowledges the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42301106) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. M.W. acknowledges funding from the Swedish Research Council (grant no. 2025-04134), the Swedish National Space Agency (grant no. 2021-00111), the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (grant no. 2022-00643), Stiftelsen Oscar och Lili Lamms Minne (grant no. FO2022-0016), and support from the EU Horizon 2020 GreenFeedBack project (grant agreement ID: 101056921). X.T. acknowledges the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42471022, 52179030 and 42375165) and the Province Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong (2024B515020046, 2022A1515240018). W.L. acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 42271419), Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (grant no. 311021004), and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Sun Yat-sen University (grant no. 23lgbj014).

Funding

X.L. discloses support for the research of this work from the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (grant no. 42225107). J.L. discloses support for the research of this work from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42301106) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

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Jun Li or Xiaoping Liu.

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Li, J., Wu, M., Liao, W. et al. Asymmetric temperature responses to soil moisture drought legacies under anthropogenic forcing.
Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75496-6

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