in Ecology

Biodiversity science and policy need more model intercomparisons

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Abstract

Halting the accelerating decline of global biodiversity requires robust models to project future changes and inform policy decisions. Climate models, especially model intercomparison projects, were pivotal for advancing the mechanistic understanding of climate change attributing to anthropogenic causes. Analogous biodiversity model intercomparison projects (BMIPs), developed only in the past decade, could emulate this success. In this Perspective, we briefly summarize existing BMIPs and highlight the opportunities, gaps and challenges for developing BMIPs by applying lessons learned from the climate model intercomparison projects. BMIPs offer valuable insights into potential global and regional biodiversity trajectories and their uncertainty and can help to attribute changes in biodiversity to drivers when based on standardized, historical benchmark data. Moving forward, BMIPs should adopt mechanistic approaches, establish governance structures and ensure open access to modelling tools and data. With strategic investments in data infrastructure, modelling capabilities and global governance, BMIPs can meaningfully contribute to the delivery of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by providing robust projections that support policy and action planning across various spatial scales and scenarios. Achieving this vision requires concerted international coordination, increased funding and proactive knowledge sharing.

Key points

  • Biodiversity model intercomparison projects (BMIPs) provide a coordinated and standardized experimental framework to systematically compare biodiversity models, ensuring consistency in inputs, scenarios and outputs.

  • BMIPs are particularly useful both for addressing general biodiversity modelling questions and for supporting national to international actions to reach the Global Biodiversity Framework goals and targets.

  • Establishing historical benchmark datasets is crucial for validating biodiversity models, enabling impact attribution and a cross-system understanding of predictive performance and model complexity and enhancing confidence in model predictions.

  • Strengthening international collaboration, coordination and knowledge sharing and fostering broader community engagement will enhance the relevance, transparency and impact of BMIPs.

  • Establishing clear governance structures for BMIPs, including mechanisms for overseeing modelling activities, infrastructure and community consultation and strategies for long-term funding, is essential for ensuring the sustainability and effectiveness of BMIPs.

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Fig. 1: Timeline of climate modelling, biodiversity modelling and related model intercomparison projects.
Fig. 2: Spatially explicit biodiversity models and their typical input data requirements and outputs.
Fig. 3: Scale dependence in biodiversity modelling.

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Acknowledgements

D.Z. and K.S. are supported by DFG Grant No. 518316503. S.J.L.G. is funded by the Novo Nordisk Challenge Programme grant number NNF20OC0060118. G.B. is funded by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship (UF160614).

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  1. Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

    Damaris Zurell & Katrin Schifferle

  2. Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie, Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD and Avignon University, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Cécile H. Albert

  3. School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

    Greta Bocedi & Samuel J. L. Gascoigne

  4. School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Natalie J. Briscoe & Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita

  5. Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Lauren B. Buckley

  6. Department of Biology, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

    Andrew Gonzalez

  7. Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC, Jaca, Spain

    Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita

  8. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK

    Nick J. B. Isaac

  9. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    Dirk N. Karger

  10. School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    Carolyn J. Lundquist

  11. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand

    Carolyn J. Lundquist

  12. Coastal Marine Ecosystems Research Centre (CMERC), Central Queensland University, Gladstone Marina, Queensland, Australia

    Carolyn J. Lundquist

  13. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

    Cory Merow & Mark C. Urban

  14. Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

    Cory Merow & Mark C. Urban

  15. Biodiversity Modelling and Environmental Change, School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

    Juliano Sarmento Cabral

  16. Ecological Modelling, Bonner Institute for Organismal Biology — Department of Plant Biodiversity, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

    Juliano Sarmento Cabral

  17. Instituto de Biología Subtropical, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional de Misiones, Puerto Iguazú, Argentina

    Santiago J. E. Velazco

  18. Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA

    Santiago J. E. Velazco

Authors

  1. Damaris Zurell
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  2. Cécile H. Albert
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  3. Greta Bocedi
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  4. Natalie J. Briscoe
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  5. Lauren B. Buckley
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  6. Samuel J. L. Gascoigne
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  7. Andrew Gonzalez
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  8. Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita
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  9. Nick J. B. Isaac
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  10. Dirk N. Karger
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  11. Carolyn J. Lundquist
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  12. Cory Merow
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  13. Juliano Sarmento Cabral
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  14. Katrin Schifferle
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  15. Santiago J. E. Velazco
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  16. Mark C. Urban
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Contributions

D.Z., S.J.L.G., J.S.C, K.S., S.J.E.V. and M.C.U. researched data for the article. D.Z., A.G. and M.C.U. contributed substantially to discussion of the content. D.Z., C.H.A., G.B., N.J.B., L.B.B., G.G.-A., N.J.B.I., C.M., J.S.C., S.J.E.V. and M.C.U wrote the article. All authors reviewed and/or edited the manuscript before submission.

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Correspondence to
Damaris Zurell.

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Nature Reviews Biodiversity thanks Alice Johnston, who co-reviewed with Harriet Gold; and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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BES-SIM: https://bes-sim.org/

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FishMIP: https://fishmip.org

GEO BON EcoCode: https://geobon.org/ecocode-modelling-life-on-earth/

ISIMIP: https://www.isimip.org/

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Zurell, D., Albert, C.H., Bocedi, G. et al. Biodiversity science and policy need more model intercomparisons.
Nat. Rev. Biodivers. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44358-026-00134-4

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