Closing deforestation loopholes in the China–Brazil soy trade

A recent analysis has highlighted the growing reliance of China’s animal-protein-rich diets on Brazil’s land and water resources, revealing the scale of ‘virtual’ land and water use and the persistence of deforestation risk embedded in the Sino–Brazilian soybean trade¹. These findings arrive at a pivotal political moment, when Brazil’s recent hosting of the COP30 Climate Change Conference put forests, land use and agricultural supply chains at the centre of climate diplomacy². Against this backdrop, it is essential to complement environmental risk assessments with governance efforts, emerging cooperation and realistic policy pathways capable of aligning food security with environmental integrity.

There has already been some, but often under-recognized, progress. Over the past decade, China has increasingly incorporated ‘deforestation-free’ principles into soybean procurement through leading state-owned (for example, China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation) and private (for example, Inner Mongolia Mengniu Dairy) agrifood enterprises³. In particular, since 2019, traceability systems for Brazilian soy have improved through integration of remote sensing, geolocation of farms and enhanced supply-chain disclosure. Public–private platforms such as Trase have linked export flows to specific municipalities, enabling downstream buyers to assess the deforestation exposure of supply chains and increasingly avoid purchasing from suppliers operating in deforestation hotspots⁴. These measures help to explain the declining deforestation exposure associated with soybeans after 2017¹, despite continued growth in trade volumes. Parallel to supply-chain reform, China and Brazil have strengthened bilateral cooperation on agricultural science and sustainable land management. In May 2025, the two governments signed environmental cooperation frameworks that include technology exchange for vegetation restoration and degraded land recovery, aligning with Brazil’s goal to restore 12 million hectares of degraded lands by 2030 under its National Native Vegetation Recovery Plan⁵.