Abstract
Gymnosperms play important ecological and evolutionary roles, but many species in Asia are increasingly threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Here we examined current gymnosperm diversity using species richness, geographic rarity and evolutionary uniqueness, and combined ecological niche modelling with measures of species richness to examine patterns of gymnosperm diversity in eastern and southern Asia under past, present, and future climates. We found that the Hengduan Mountains and parts of central Japan contain especially high diversity, while southwestern, southern, and southeastern China hold many evolutionarily distinct and geographically restricted species. Climate projections suggest that many current diversity hotspots could lose most suitable habitat by 2100, with 33 species facing possible extinction and 29 becoming highly vulnerable. Future climate refugia are predicted mainly in Indochina, India, southern China, Taiwan, and the southern Himalayas. Our results highlight the urgent need to expand protected areas and consider assisted migration for vulnerable species.
Funding
C.Q.T. discloses support for the research of this work from the Science and Technology Department of Yunnan Province, the Major Program for Basic Research Project of Yunnan Province, China (grant number 202101BC070002), and the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, the Special Foundation for National Science and Technology Basic Resources Investigation of China [2019FY202300]. T.S. and T. M. disclose support for the research of this work from JSPS KAKENHI (Grant numbers JP23K13986 and JP24H00055). J.L.-P and N.N. disclose support for the research of this work from Generalitat de Catalunya, thanks to project 2021-SGR00315 (“Ajuts a Grups de Recerca Consolidats”). H.T.L. discloses support for the research of this work from the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST) under the project “Research, Simulation, and Reconstruction of Biodiversity in the southern Central of Vietnam”.
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Tang, C.Q., Matsui, T., Shitara, T. et al. Eastern and southern Asian gymnosperms are doomed to extinction under climate change.
Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03759-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03759-7
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