Abstract
A successful theory in ecology is the equilibrium species numbers on islands. Most of it is about the total number of species on “islands” (sensu lato), ignoring complications like species identities, history, and environmental differences. We propose an operational approach for identification of potential species pools, moving from predicting only numbers toward a better understanding of species identities. This procedure includes two main steps: (1) provide an initial pool of species names, and (2) refine that list via niche-based environmental filtering. To provide the initial species pool (step 1), we explored two regions of different sizes. For step 2, we used ecological niche modeling to separate potential colonizers from species that do not have any distributional potential on the island(s) in question. As an example, we used data on butterflies of the Caribbean Islands. We found that, regardless of the size of the pool, our methods were able to refine (reduce) potential species pools without increasing omission errors. Our predicted species pools, however, show apparent “errors” of commission—we interpret these species as representing as-yet unrealized potential colonizers. Overall, this approach allows researchers to refine estimates of species pools, and thereby improve the ability to predict potential local species richness and species identities.
Data availability
Curated data used in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.27397749 . The code needed to reproduce all steps of the project (including data download and preparation) is openly available at https://github.com/claununez/Island_Biogeography_Pools.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the members of the KUENM group for their support in the development of this manuscript.
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CNP, JS, and ATP designed the research. CNP and JS gathered the data. CNP, JS, and MEC developed R code and performed the analyses. CNP and FMS created the figures. All authors wrote and reviewed the manuscript.
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Nuñez-Penichet, C., Soberón, J., Cobos, M.E. et al. Enhancing island biogeography: improving identification of potential species pools via environmental filtering.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-43084-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-43084-9
Keywords
- Caribbean
- Island biogeography
- Niche modeling
- Species pools
- Sulphurs
- Swallowtails
Source: Ecology - nature.com
