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ENSO-modulated heat source and moisture sink of Asian monsoon and its impact on rice production

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Abstract

Asian monsoon dynamics modulated by ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) exert a strong influence on rice production across Asia. This study quantifies the role of major high-pressure systems, Tibetan High (heat source and moisture sink), Mascarene High and West Pacific High (moisture sources), and Siberian High (heat sink) in regulating rice yield variability. Canonical correlation analysis between rice yield (Asia, China, India) and climate variables (temperature and pressure) reveals a pronounced seasonal asymmetry, with ocean-driven monsoon dominance in summer transitioning to continental impact during winter. The leading summer canonical mode is highly robust (r ≈ 0.51, p < 10⁻¹⁴), reflecting strong ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the dominant winter mode (r ≈ 0.46, p < 10⁻⁸) highlights land–atmosphere interactions. Regression and trend analyses show that La Niña years exhibit the strongest climate–yield coupling (R² ≈ 0.4–0.9), with detrended rice yield anomalies increasing (Sen’s slope 6.54). In contrast, El Niño years show declining detrended yields (Sen’s slope − 6.06) despite strong increases in total yield, indicating adverse climatic effects masked by technological advancement. Neutral years display weak and insignificant climate–crop relationships. Overall, only La Niña conditions provide a robust, technology-independent positive climatic influence on Asian rice production.

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Data availability

The original data presented in the study are openly available in Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) at DOI: 10.24381/cds.f17050d7 and FAOSTAT (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL).

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) for the monthly averaged climate datasets (DOI: 10.24381/cds.f17050d7) and also thankful to FAOSTAT (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL) for the rice yield data.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics, Techno India University, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700091, India

    Mourani Sinha

  2. West Bengal Police Service, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

    Somnath Jha

  3. Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Services Singapore, National Environment Agency, Singapore, 228231, Singapore

    Anupam Kumar

Authors

  1. Mourani Sinha
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  2. Somnath Jha
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  3. Anupam Kumar
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study’s conception and methodology. Mourani Sinha did the formal analysis while Somnath Jha and Anupam Kumar validated the discussions. All authors analyzed the final results and approved the final manuscript.

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Mourani Sinha.

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Sinha, M., Jha, S. & Kumar, A. ENSO-modulated heat source and moisture sink of Asian monsoon and its impact on rice production.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46128-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46128-2

Keywords

  • Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling
  • Land–Atmosphere Interaction
  • Canonical Correlation Analysis
  • Seasonal Asymmetry
  • Climate–Crop Relationship
  • High-pressure systems

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