Abstract
The increasing demand and diversification of food consumption among Chinese residents have brought to light the escalating environmental impact. This study seeks to elucidate the correlation between shifts in China’s dietary patterns and environmental consequences over the period of 2017–2023. The study represents the systematic assessment—covering 11 food categories across provincial spatial scales and employing the 2017 Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) table—of how nationally recommended healthy dietary guidelines reshape the spatial distribution of environmental pressures within China, identifying key leverage points. In contrast to the prevailing notion in international research that a healthy diet typically alleviates environmental pressure, under the guidance of China’s Healthy Diet Guidelines, our research results are as follows: (1) The carbon and water footprints of food consumption among Chinese residents exhibited fluctuations and overall increases, with a spatial distribution characterized by higher levels in the southeast and lower levels in the northwest. (2) In a healthy dietary pattern, compared with food consumption in 2023, the total carbon footprint increased by 234.47 Mt CO₂-eq (21.26%) and the total water footprint increased by 291.49 km³(27.76%), with dairy products as the main contributor. (3) Compared to the actual baseline in 2017, adopting the healthy dietary pattern would increase the transferred carbon footprint by 440.98 Mt CO₂-eq (49.72%) and the water footprint by 486.43 km³ (57.51%). Guangdong, serving as a transfer hub, primarily directed carbon and water footprints to Fujian and received them mainly from Guangxi.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 25BGL250); the Joint Funds of the Science and Technology Research and Development Plan of Henan Province (Grant No. 245200810033); the Research and Practice Project on Higher Education Teaching Reform of Henan Province (Grant No. 2026SJGLX304); the Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province (Grant No. 262300421947) and Henan Province Science and Technology Research Projects (Grant No. 262102110365).
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Li, D., Li, X., Shi, X. et al. Environmental footprint implications of guideline-based dietary transition in China: carbon, water, and interprovincial transfer effects.
npj Sci Food (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41538-026-00947-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41538-026-00947-9
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