Abstract
Human activities are driving simultaneous native extinctions and alien naturalizations, reshaping global tree diversity with major implications for ecosystem structure and function. Here we analysed functional traits and environmental niches of 31,001 tree species worldwide, comparing naturalized, threatened and non-threatened species to assess current patterns and project future shifts under intensified extinction and naturalization. Future tree-rich ecosystems are projected to become increasingly dominated by fast-growing, high-resource-use species with acquisitive traits, while slow-growing, conservative species face greater extinction risk. Although group means along the main functional axes do not differ significantly, naturalized species occupy broader functional and environmental spaces and thrive in colder and more variable climates, whereas threatened species are more specialized to warm, stable and nutrient-rich environments, with non-threatened species intermediate. Projected naturalizations expand local functional diversity, but their acquisitive strategies could reduce long-term ecosystem stability, while extinctions cause pronounced contractions of functional and environmental trait space, especially in climatically variable regions. Overall, our findings reveal an accelerating global shift towards faster-growing tree communities, with likely consequences for carbon storage and biodiversity, underscoring the need to safeguard slow-growing species and limit the dominance of acquisitive trees.
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Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available via GitHub at https://github.com/kun-ecology/global_tree.fun-env.space and are mirrored on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17662284 (ref. 104). The trait data were obtained from ref. 42, and the environmental data were extracted from ref. 43.
Code availability
R scripts for reproducing the analyses and figures are available via GitHub at https://github.com/kun-ecology/global_tree.fun-env.space and are mirrored on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17662284 (ref. 104).
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Acknowledgements
This project was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (32171588 and 32471676), the Innovation Program of the Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (2023ZKZD36), the Fundamental and Interdisciplinary Disciplines Breakthrough Plan of the Ministry of Education of China (JYB2025XDXM904). We also consider this work a contribution to the Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), funded by the Danish National Research Foundation (grant no. DNRF173 to J.-C.S.). J.M.S.-D. is supported by the programme RYC2022-035668-I, funded by MCIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and FSE+. J. Pisek is supported by the Estonian Research Council (PRG1405) and by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research, Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Land Use (TK232). C.B. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (2022R1A2C1003504). A.G.G. was supported by the ANID PIA/BASAL (FB210006) and FONDECYT (1240874). Ü.N. is supported by Estonian Ministry of Education and Research, Centre of Excellence AgroCropFuture (TK200).
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W.-Y.G. conceived the project. J.M.S.-D., W.-Y.G., C.C.F.B., R.K. and all others collected the data. K.G. and W.-Y.G. analysed the data. W.-Y.G., K.G. and J.-C.S. interpreted the data and wrote the manuscript. All authors contributed data, discussed the results, revised the manuscript drafts, contributed to writing and approved the final manuscript.
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Supplementary Table 6
Potential naturalized tree species obtained from DAPC.
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Guo, WY., Serra-Diaz, J.M., Guo, K. et al. Global functional shifts in trees driven by alien naturalization and native extinction.
Nat. Plants (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-025-02207-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-025-02207-2
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