Impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of rare and endangered Cyatheaceae in China: a MaxEnt model-based prediction

Cyatheaceae is one of Earth’s oldest tree fern families and is currently facing degradation of natural habitats due to ecological environment deterioration. Therefore, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict changes in the potential habitats of Cyatheaceae species in China across past, present, and future periods (2030s-2090s) under three climate scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs245, SSPs585). The model showed high accuracy (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.87, CBI > 0.98), indicating that the predictions were reliable. The species’ distribution was most affected by six environmental factors: bio2 (optimal ~ 5 °C), bio12 (optimal 2,500–3,800 mm), bio4 (optimal < 480), bio11 (optimal 12–20 °C), the human footprint index (hfp, optimal ~ 35), and bio17 (optimal 200–730 mm). From MH to the present, suitable habitats have decreased significantly, from 183.01 × 10⁴ km² to 105.09 × 10⁴ km². The most suitable areas have shifted to southern China. Niche analysis also showed a high level of niche conservatism, indicating limited adaptability to habitat loss. Future projections diverged; SSPs126 exhibited recovery (111.54 × 10⁴ km² by 2090), SSPs245 showed progressive decline (93.50 × 10⁴ km² by 2090), and SSPs585 produced severe contraction (71.41 × 10⁴ km²) with habitat fragmentation. Analysis of niche dynamics under future climate change indicates that this family exhibits a conservative response strategy. MESS analysis revealed climate anomaly zones significantly overlapping core habitats. Model extrapolation validated these patterns, identifying southern regions as conservation priorities. The findings suggest prioritizing conservation networks centered on climate refugia in central Taiwan, central Hainan, and southern China, coupled with microclimate management and germplasm conservation to safeguard this ancient family.