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Impacts of land use/land cover change on ecosystem service values in the Dinki Watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia

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Abstract

This study examined land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Dinki watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia, and their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs) across three time periods (1994, 2014, 2023). Multi temporal satellite imagery was classified to detect changes, complemented by community perspectives gathered through interviews and focus group discussions. Ecosystem service values were sourced from global databases and adjusted for the Ethiopian highlands using biome-specific coefficients, cross-checked with local experts and community input. Six LULC categories were identified: cropland, built up areas, dense forest, grazing land, sparse vegetation/ slight vegetation, and water bodies from the total area of 160.91 km2. Classification accuracy improved from 86.1% (1994) to 91.67% (2014) and 94.4% (2023), with strong agreement indicated by Kappa values of 0.83, 0.90, and 0.93. The LULC analysis showed notable changes across the watershed, where increases in water bodies and sparse vegetation contributed to overall ecosystem service value (ESV) gains. These changes significantly influenced ESVs, with water bodies and sparse vegetation driving the net increase. Consequently, total ESVs rose from US$200.32 thousand per year in 1994 to US$310.33 thousand per year in 2023, despite losses from cropland and forest ecosystems. Regulating services contributed the largest share, followed by provisioning, supporting, and cultural services. The findings demonstrate that LULC dynamics simultaneously enhance and undermine ecosystem functions. Integrated watershed management combining sustainable agriculture, reforestation, livelihood diversification, and community participation will be essential to balance ecological integrity with socioeconomic development in the Dinki watershed.

Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their heart-felt gratitude to study participants, and all who contributed to this study. All authors and sources of materials used in this paperare highly acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Yared Worku & Mengistu Asmamaw

  2. Ethiopian Forest Development, Natural Forest and Climate Change Research Directorate, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Yared Worku

  3. Center for Water Research, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Argaw Ambelu

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  1. Yared Worku
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  2. Mengistu Asmamaw
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Contributions

All authors contributed significantly to the design, conceptualization, and development of this manuscript. For instance, Yared Worku: was responsible for conceptualization, methodology, investigation, visualization, data collection and analysis, software development and drafting the original manuscript. Mengistu Asmamaw: was contributed on conceptualization and editing the manuscript. Argaw Ambelu: provided supervision, critical review, and editing the entire work. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

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Mengistu Asmamaw.

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Appendices

Appendix

Appendix I

Socioeconomic data

Data on local natural resource management practices and sociocultural mechanisms were collected using tools adapted and customized from existing literature1,64,72. Sampling techniques and data collection procedures were designed to capture qualitative insights through in-depth engagement with local communities. Local perceptions of ecosystem service changes, as well as the magnitude of these changes, were assessed using a combination of Barbour et al.’s42 physical habitat assessment protocol and Solomon et al.’s43 forest cover classification ranges, supplemented by community knowledge. The resulting classifications were aligned with Barbour’s guidelines and are summarized in Table 4. The qualitative findings from key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) were explicitly used to identify and interpret the drivers of LULC transitions observed in the watershed, providing local context for land cover change patterns derived from remote sensing.

Key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussion (FGDs) data collection and analysis

To capture local perspectives on land use and land cover dynamics and ecosystem service changes, a mixed qualitative approach was employed, combining key informant interviews (KIIS), focus group discussions (FGDs), and direct field observations.

Key informant interviews (KIIs)

Twenty-one key informants (9 women and 12 men) were purposively selected across the watershed, which was stratified into three agro-ecological zones: upper (cold/Alpine), middle (dry-warm), and lower (sub-moist warm). A structured checklist guided interviews to gather information on natural resource utilization and management, constraints in resource use, and temporal variations in resource availability.

Focus group discussion (FGDs)

Three in-depth FGDs were conducted, each comprising approximately 10 participants representing diverse community segments, including development agents, kebele administration leaders, model farmers, elderly households, and groups of young adults and women. Discussions followed a semi-structured protocol adapted from Melka et al.73 and Souther et al.72. FGDs provided a participatory platform for sharing experiences, beliefs, and practices related to LULC, facilitating the emergence of collective memory and communal knowledge.

Field observations

Concurrent observations documented economic activities, natural resource utilization, constraints in resource management, and the current status of the watershed’s ecosystems. All qualitative data were transcribed, coded, and analyzed thematically using QDA Miner Lite software, following the procedures of Ugwu et al.74. Responses were categorized into seven thematic codes, allowing systematic interpretation of local knowledge and perceptions related to LULC changes and ecosystem service dynamics.

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Worku, Y., Asmamaw, M. & Ambelu, A. Impacts of land use/land cover change on ecosystem service values in the Dinki Watershed, central highlands of Ethiopia.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-44717-9

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Keywords

  • Biodiversity conservation
  • Ecosystem valuation
  • Environmental sustainability
  • GIS analysis
  • Remote sensing
  • Watershed management

Source: Ecology - nature.com

Interaction of two parenchyma ray types regulates redwood heartwood deposition

Experimental Sodalis infection eliminates ancient insect symbiont

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