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Linking aerobic scope to fitness in the wild reveals potential opportunities to help recover imperiled salmon populations

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Abstract

Aquatic ectotherms are hypothesized to be vulnerable to warming and deoxygenation associated with environmental change because temperature and oxygen (O2) supply can restrict aerobic scope (AS) in captivity. However, evidence of a direct association between AS and fitness in the wild is lacking, inspiring debate about the circumstances under which AS is the primary driver of population fluctuations. Using respirometry data, telemetry studies, long-term population monitoring, and in situ predator-prey experiments, we related AS to two Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population bottlenecks in the wild, juvenile rearing and migration. We found that AS, which we quantified using the metabolic index (ɸ), was associated with success probability for these bottlenecks only under a relatively narrow window of viable environmental conditions, depending on intraspecific metabolic trait diversity and hydrologic conditions. Opportunities for potentially high-impact temperature- and O2-specific conservation and management actions using existing hydraulic engineering infrastructure could therefore exist when AS is between critical (ɸcrit) and stable (ɸstable) values. Outside of this ecological threshold, changes in AS did not yield appreciable fitness benefits because successful rearing and migration were either exceptionally improbable (i.e., AS<ɸcrit), or seemingly independent of AS (i.e., AS>ɸstable). In addition, AS impairments likely increased susceptibility to predation, and this may have been involved in the putative association between AS and fitness in the wild.

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Data availability

All data supporting the findings (Supplementary Data 1–7) are deposited on Dryad (ref. 87), and can be downloaded using the following link: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.kprr4xhdr

Code availability

All R code supporting the findings are deposited on Zenodo (accompanying data in ref. 87), and can be downloaded using the following link: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13774802.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Alyssa FitzGerald for providing thorough feedback that greatly improved the manuscript; Eric Danner, Steven Lindley, and Nate Mantua also provided insightful reviews. We are grateful to the many people and agencies who contributed to the publicly available datasets used in this study. This work was funded by the US Bureau of Reclamation grant agreements R18AP00136 and R21AC10455 (to C.J.M.); A.G.M. received support from the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, & Ecosystem Studies under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA20OAR4320271, Contribution No. 2024-1332 (A.G.M.). The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any views or opinions expressed herein, are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of NOAA or the Department of Commerce.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of California, Santa Cruz, Institute of Marine Sciences’ Fisheries Collaborative Program, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA, USA

    Benjamin P. Burford, Brendan M. Lehman & Cyril J. Michel

  2. Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 110 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA, USA

    Benjamin P. Burford, Brendan M. Lehman & Cyril J. Michel

  3. Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA

    Kenneth W. Zillig, Vanessa K. Lo, Garfield T. Kwan, Dennis E. Cocherell & Nann A. Fangue

  4. Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, USA

    Alexandra G. McInturf

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  1. Benjamin P. Burford
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Contributions

Conceptualization: B.P.B., B.M.L., K.W.Z., V.K.L., G.T.K., and C.J.M.; Data curation: B.P.B., B.M.L., K.W.Z., V.K.L., A.G.M., D.E.C., N.A.F., and C.J.M.; Formal analysis: B.P.B. and C.J.M.; Funding acquisition: N.A.F. and C.J.M.; Investigation: B.P.B., B.M.L., K.W.Z., V.K.L., A.G.M., and C.J.M.; Methodology: B.P.B., B.M.L., K.W.Z., V.K.L., A.G.M., G.T.K., D.E.C., N.A.F., and C.J.M.; Project administration: B.P.B. and G.T.K.; Resources: N.A.F. and C.J.M.; Supervision: N.A.F. and C.J.M.; Validation: B.P.B.; Visualization: B.P.B.; Writing—original draft: B.P.B.; Writing—review and editing: B.P.B., B.M.L., K.W.Z., V.K.L., A.G.M., G.T.K., D.E.C., N.A.F., and C.J.M.

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Burford, B.P., Lehman, B.M., Zillig, K.W. et al. Linking aerobic scope to fitness in the wild reveals potential opportunities to help recover imperiled salmon populations.
Commun Biol (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-026-09642-7

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