Abstract
Balancing ecosystem service provision with long-term ecosystem stability remains a critical challenge for sustainable land management. Here, we develop a spatial planning framework that integrates ecological resilience—the capacity of an ecosystem to recover from perturbations—with ecosystem services to identify priority areas for ecological restoration. Applying this framework to the Loess Plateau of China, we evaluate three management strategies—Service Priority, Balanced Priority, and Resilience Priority—to delineate restoration priorities. Our results indicate that ecosystem services have generally improved from 2000 to 2020, while resilience exhibits a turning point, shifting from an increasing to a declining trend. Spatial overlay analyses further show that areas with enhanced ecosystem service supply coincide with declining resilience, indicating a spatial mismatch between service gains and resilience loss. The three prioritization scenarios produce distinct spatial patterns, highlighting the importance of balanced strategies that reconcile short-term service gains with long-term ecosystem resilience to inform sustainable restoration and land management.
Similar content being viewed by others
Zoning optimization of ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk in typical karst areas in southwest China
The role of traditional ecological knowledge and ecosystem quality in managing ecosystem services
Evolution and driving mechanism of multiple ecosystem services in resource-based region of Northern China
Data availability
Monthly NDVI data with a resolution of 1 km from February 2000 to December 2023 were acquired from MODIS (MOD13A3 Version 6.1, https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/data/catalog/lpcloud-mod13a3-061). Land use/cover data with a 30 m resolution in 2000 and 2020 was obtained from Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/15853565)58. The datasets supporting the findings of this study, including ecosystem service and resilience assessment results, have been deposited in figshare and are available at [https://figshare.com/s/d6d5d65bbd9e77a02441].
Code availability
The code used for the study is available from the author’s figshare repository (https://figshare.com/s/d6d5d65bbd9e77a02441).
References
Scheffer, M. et al. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, 53–59 (2009).
Dakos, V. et al. Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems. Earth Syst. Dynam. 15, 1117–1135 (2024).
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V. & Van Nes, E. H. Generic Indicators of Ecological Resilience: Inferring the Chance of a Critical Transition. Annu. Rev. Ecol., Evolution, Syst. 46, 145–167 (2015).
Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., van Nes, E. H. & Scheffer, M. Resilience indicators: Prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 370, 1–10 (2015).
Lenton, T. M. et al. Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales. Nat. Commun. 15, 343 (2024).
Felipe-Lucia, M. R. et al. Conceptualizing ecosystem services using social–ecological networks. Trends Ecol. Evolution 37, 211–222 (2022).
Biggs, R., Schlüter, M. & Schoon, M. Principles for Building Resilience: Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems. (2015).
Liu, Y., Kumar, M., Katul, G. G. & Porporato, A. Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 880–885 (2019).
Fernández-Martínez, M. et al. Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks. Nature 615, 848–853 (2023).
Tallis, H. et al. Prioritizing actions: spatial action maps for conservation. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1505, 118–141 (2021).
Moilanen, A. et al. Novel methods for spatial prioritization with applications in conservation, land use planning and ecological impact avoidance. Methods Ecol. Evolution 13, 1062–1072 (2022).
Sun, Q. et al. Mapping Biodiversity Conservation Priorities for Protected Areas for Spatial Optimization: A Case Study in the Songnen Plain, China. Ecol. Evolution 14, e70516 (2024).
Giakoumi, S. et al. Advances in systematic conservation planning to meet global biodiversity goals. Trends Ecol. Evolution 40, 395–410 (2025).
Standish, R. J. & Parkhurst, T. Interventions for resilient nature-based solutions: An ecological perspective. J. Ecol. 112, 2502–2509 (2024).
Chambers, J. C., Allen, C. R. & Cushman, S. A. Operationalizing Ecological Resilience Concepts for Managing Species and Ecosystems at Risk. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Volume 7 – 2019, (2019).
Angeler, D. G. & Allen, C. R. Quantifying resilience. J. Appl. Ecol. 53, 617–624 (2016).
Runge, K. et al. Monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem Resilience Using Earth Observation Data: Identifying Consensus and Limitations Across Metrics. Glob. Change Biol. 31, e70115 (2025).
Lenton, T. M. et al. A resilience sensing system for the biosphere. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 377, 20210383 (2022).
Wang, Z. et al. Escaping social–ecological traps through ecological restoration and socioeconomic development in China’s Loess Plateau. People Nat. 5, 1364–1379 (2023).
Fu, B., Wu, X., Wang, Z., Wu, X. & Wang, S. Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China’s Loess Plateau. Earth Syst. Dyn. 13, 795–808 (2022).
Wu, X. et al. Ecological restoration in the Yellow River Basin enhances hydropower potential. Nat. Commun. 16, 2566 (2025).
Lü, Y., Lü, D., Feng, X. & Fu, B. Multi-scale analyses on the ecosystem services in the Chinese Loess Plateau and implications for dryland sustainability. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainability 48, 1–9 (2021).
Wu, X., Wang, S., Fu, B., Feng, X. & Chen, Y. Socio-ecological changes on the Loess Plateau of China after Grain to Green Program. Sci. Total Environ. 678, 565–573 (2019).
Feng, X. et al. Revegetation in China’s Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 1019–1022 (2016).
Zhang, S. et al. Excessive Afforestation and Soil Drying on China’s Loess Plateau. J. Geophys. Res.: Biogeosciences 123, 923–935 (2018).
Potschin-Young, M. et al. Understanding the role of conceptual frameworks: Reading the ecosystem service cascade. Ecosyst. Serv. 29, 428–440 (2018).
Mandle, L. et al. Increasing decision relevance of ecosystem service science. Nat. Sustainability 4, 161–169 (2021).
Dakos, V. & Kéfi, S. Ecological resilience: what to measure and how. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 043003 (2022).
Smith, T. & Boers, N. Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density. Nat. Ecol. Evolution 7, 1799–1808 (2023).
Wang, Z. et al. Exploring the interdependencies of ecosystem services and social-ecological factors on the Loess Plateau through network analysis. Sci. Total Environ. 960, 178362 (2025).
Wang, Z. et al. Vegetation resilience does not increase consistently with greening in China’s Loess Plateau. Commun. Earth Environ. 4, 336 (2023).
Zhang, Y. et al. Spatial Heterogeneity of Vegetation Resilience Changes to Different Drought Types. Earth’s. Future 11, e2022EF003108 (2023).
Boulton, C. A., Lenton, T. M. & Boers, N. Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 271–278 (2022).
Van Passel, J. et al. Critical slowing down of the Amazon forest after increased drought occurrence. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 121, e2316924121 (2024).
Feng, Y. et al. Reduced resilience of terrestrial ecosystems locally is not reflected on a global scale. Commun. Earth Environ. 2, 88 (2021).
Smith, T., Traxl, D. & Boers, N. Empirical evidence for recent global shifts in vegetation resilience. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 477–484 (2022).
Liu, Y. et al. Global greening drives significant soil moisture loss. Commun. Earth Environ. 6, 600 (2025).
Fu, F. et al. Locating Hydrologically Unsustainable Areas for Supporting Ecological Restoration in China’s Drylands. Earth’s. Future 12, e2023EF004216 (2024).
Wei, F. et al. Quantifying the precipitation supply of China’s drylands through moisture recycling. Agric. For. Meteorol. 352, 110034 (2024).
Tian, L. et al. Large-Scale Afforestation Enhances Precipitation by Intensifying the Atmospheric Water Cycle Over the Chinese Loess Plateau. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmospheres 127, e2022JD036738 (2022).
Cui, J. et al. Global water availability boosted by vegetation-driven changes in atmospheric moisture transport. Nature Geoscience, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01061-7 (2022).
Zhao, Y. et al. Beyond monocultures: Optimizing soil carbon sequestration with diverse planting strategies on the Loess Plateau. CATENA 246, 108447 (2024).
Zhang, J. et al. Plant water source and water niche of native typical communities in the Loess Plateau of China. Ecol. Front. 45, 1582–1594 (2025).
Liu, C. L. C., Kuchma, O. & Krutovsky, K. V. Mixed-species versus monocultures in plantation forestry: Development, benefits, ecosystem services and perspectives for the future. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 15, e00419 (2018).
Felton, A. et al. Replacing monocultures with mixed-species stands: Ecosystem service implications of two production forest alternatives in Sweden. Ambio 45, 124–139 (2016).
Smith, T. & Boers, N. Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability. Nat. Commun. 14, 498 (2023).
Liu, Y. et al. Effects of thinning on soil water content and water use characteristics of artificial forest in the Loess Plateau of China. CATENA 254, 108997 (2025).
Van Passel, J. et al. Higher tree diversity reduces critical slowing down in the Amazon forest. EGUsphere 2025, 1-31, (2025).
Pickering, M. et al. Enhanced structural diversity increases European forest resilience and potentially compensates for climate-driven declines. Commun. Earth Environ. 6, 852 (2025).
Yang, J. & Huang, X. The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13, 3907–3925 (2021).
Camps-Valls, G. et al. A unified vegetation index for quantifying the terrestrial biosphere. Sci. Adv. 7, eabc7447 (2021).
Forzieri, G., Dakos, V., McDowell, N. G., Ramdane, A. & Cescatti, A. Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change. Nature 608, 534–539 (2022).
Fu, B. et al. Assessing the soil erosion control service of ecosystems change in the Loess Plateau of China. Ecol. Complex. 8, 284–293 (2011).
Su, C., Dong, M., Fu, B. & Liu, G. Scale effects of sediment retention, water yield, and net primary production. A case-study of the Chinese Loess Plateau. Land Degrad. Dev. 31, 1408–1421 (2020).
Zhang, Y. & He, S. PML-V2 (China): evapotranspiration and gross primary production dataset (2000.02.26-2020.12.31). National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center (2022).
Hanson, J. O. et al. Systematic conservation prioritization with the prioritizr R package. Conserv. Biol. 39, e14376 (2025).
Huangfu, Q. & Hall, J. A. J. Parallelizing the dual revised simplex method. Math. Program. Comput. 10, 119–142 (2018).
Yang, J. & Huang, X. The 30 m annual land cover datasets and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2020 (1.0.4) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5210928 (2021).
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42501114, W2412141), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (GK202506004), Young Talent Fund of Xi’an Association for Science and Technology (0959202513114).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
B.F. and Z.W. conceived and designed the study. Z.W. produced and analyzed the results and led the writing of the manuscript. B.F., X.W., S.W., J.Z., L.Z., L.J., H.W., Y.L., and Y.L. commented and edited the manuscript. All authors contributed to interpreting the results and improving the paper.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review
Peer review information
Communications Earth & Environment thanks Xiangyang Hou and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Letícia Santos de Lima and Mengjie Wang. A peer review file is available
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
Transparent Peer Review file
SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Reprints and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, Z., Fu, B., Wu, X. et al. Linking ecological resilience and ecosystem services to inform spatial conservation planning.
Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03244-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03244-1
Source: Ecology - nature.com
