Search

Menu
Search
in Ecology

Links between infrastructure for human movement and early Ebola outbreak trajectories

156 Views


Abstract

Human movement drives the transmission and spread of communicable pathogens. It is particularly important for emerging pathogens when population susceptibility is high and spillover events are rare, which is often the case for Ebola virus (EBOV) in humans. From the first documentation in 1976 to 2020, 18 EBOV outbreaks have occurred in humans, all in Central and West Africa. Many were relatively small and spatially contained; two large outbreaks that spread widely began in 2013 and 2018. To assess the relationship between human movement and Ebola cases, we used transportation infrastructure as a proxy for movement. We also assessed cases in the first 100 days of each outbreak because this is a time point of significance in outbreak response assessment and has recently also become a goal for developing novel solutions for emerging pathogens. We digitized a printed map series and measured contemporaneous road and river networks surrounding spillover sites. We found that the lengths of roads and rivers near spillover sites at the time of spillovers were significantly correlated with the number of Ebola cases in the first 100 days of each outbreak. This relationship was consistent across time and space and suggests that static measures of transportation networks during an outbreak are reasonable indicators of connectivity, movement, and potential pathogen spread. This finding may be useful for guiding management and early containment efforts for outbreaks in data-limited settings to understand connectivity and movement from source locations.

Data availability

Hard copies of all Michelin maps used in this study are available at the Donald W. Hamer Center for Maps and Geospatial Information, Penn State University Libraries. Shapefiles and code used for analyses are available at [https://github.com/bhartilab/EbolaMaps].

References

  1. Huaiyu, T. et al. An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science 368, 638–642 (2020).

  2. Viboud, C. et al. Synchrony, waves, and Spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312, 447–451 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Bharti, N. et al. Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery. Science 334, 1424–1427 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  4. Faria, N. et al. HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations. Science 346, 56–61 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Pearce, R. J. et al. Multiple origins and regional dispersal of resistant Dhps in African plasmodium falciparum malaria. PLoS Med. 6, e1000055 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Wilder-Smith, A. The severe acute respiratory syndrome: impact on travel and tourism. Travel Med. Infect. Dis. 4, 53–60 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Grassly, N. C. The final stages of the global eradication of poliomyelitis. Philosophical Trans. Royal Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 368, 20120140 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Leroy, E. M. et al. Fruit bats as reservoirs of Ebola virus. Nature 438, 575–576 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Formenty, P. et al. Ebola virus outbreak among wild chimpanzees living in a rain forest of Côte d’ivoire. J. Infect. Dis. 179, S120–S126 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Rouquet, P. et al. Wild Animal Mortality Monitoring and Human Ebola Outbreaks, Gabon and Republic of Congo, 2001–2003. Emer. Infec. Dis. J. CDC. 11 (2). https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1102.040533 (2005).

  11. Leroy, E. M. et al. Multiple Ebola virus transmission events and rapid decline of central African wildlife. Science 303, 387–390 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Muyembe-Tamfum, J. J. et al. Ebola virus outbreaks in africa: past and present. Onderstepoort J. Vet. Res. 79, 451 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Judson, S. D. & Munster, V. J. The multiple origins of Ebola disease outbreaks. J. Infect. Dis. 228, S465–S473 (1983).

    Google Scholar 

  14. McCormick, J. B., Bauer, S. P., Elliott, L. H., Webb, P. A. & Johnson, K. M. Biologic differences between strains of Ebola virus from Zaire and Sudan. J. Infect. Dis. 147, 264–267 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Georges, A. J. et al. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in Gabon, 1994–1997: epidemiologic and health control issues. J. Infect. Dis. 179 (Suppl 1), S65–75 (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  16. Murray, M. J. Ebola virus disease: A review of its past and present. Anesth. Analg. 121, 798–809 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Malvy, D., McElroy, A. K., de Clerck, H., Günther, S. & van Griensven, J. Ebola virus disease. Lancet 393, 936–948 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Rosello, A. et al. Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1976–2014. eLife 4, e09015 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Keita, A. K. et al. Resurgence of Ebola virus in 2021 in Guinea suggests a new paradigm for outbreaks. Nature 597, 539–543 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Matson, M. J., Chertow, D. S. & Munster, V. J. Delayed recognition of Ebola virus disease is associated with longer and larger outbreaks. Emerg. Microbes Infections. 9, 291–301 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Lacroix, A. et al. Investigating the circulation of Ebola viruses in bats during the Ebola virus disease outbreaks in the equateur and North Kivu provinces of the Democratic Republic of congo from 2018. Pathogens 10, 557 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Wolfe, N. D., Daszak, P., Kilpatrick, A. M. & Burke, D. S. Bushmeat Hunting, Deforestation, and prediction of zoonotic disease. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11, 1822–1827 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Report of an International Commission. Ebola haemorrhagic fever in Zaire, 1976. Bull. World Health Organ. 56, 271–293 (1978).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Cenciarelli, O. et al. Ebola virus disease 2013–2014 outbreak in West africa: an analysis of the epidemic spread and response. Int. J. Microbiol. 769121 (2015).

  25. Coltart, C. E. M., Lindsey, B., Ghinai, I., Johnson, A. M. & Heymann, D. L. The Ebola outbreak, 2013–2016: old lessons for new epidemics. Philos. Trans. R Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 372, 20160297 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Regan, J. J. et al. Public health response to commercial airline travel of a person with Ebola virus infection – United States, 2014. MMWR Morb Mortal. Wkly. Rep. 64, 63–66 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Halloran, M. E. et al. Ebola: Mobility data. Science. 346, 433–433 (2014).

  28. Blanford, J. I., Kumar, S., Luo, W. & MacEachren, A. M. It’s a long, long walk: accessibility to hospitals, maternity and integrated health centers in Niger. Int. J. Health Geogr. 11, 24 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  29. Foster, V. & Sr, D. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Infrastructure: A Continental Perspective. (2011).

  30. Strano, E., Viana, M. P., Sorichetta, A. & Tatem, A. J. Mapping road network communities for guiding disease surveillance and control strategies. Sci. Rep. 8, 4744 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Ji, W. et al. Spatial and Temporal distribution of expressway and its relationships to land cover and population: A case study of Beijing, China. Transp. Res. Part. D: Transp. Environ. 32, 86–96 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Brandily, P. & Rauch, F. Within-city roads and urban growth. J. Reg. Sci. 64, 1236–1264 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Tamayo Cuartero, C. et al. From the 100 day mission to 100 lines of software development: how to improve early outbreak analytics. Lancet Digit. Health. 7, e161–e166 (2025).

    Google Scholar 

  34. 100 Days Mission to Respond to Future Pandemic Threats. GOV.UK https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/100-days-mission-to-respond-to-future-pandemic-threats

  35. Michelin Éditions des voyages (Firm) & Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique centre et sud, Madagascar: carte routière et touristique : climat = Africa central & south, Madagasc746 (2003).

  36. Michelin Travel Partner (Firm) & Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique centre et sud, Madagascar: carte routière et touristique 1/4 000 000 : niveau viabilité des routes, températures, pluviométr 746e(2019).

  37. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique (centre et sud), Madagascar: Africa (central and south), Madagascar. 155 (1963).

  38. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique (Centre et Sud) Madagascar au 1:4 000 000, 1 cm pour 40 km: Africa (Central and South) Madagascar, 1:4 000 000, 63 miles to 1 inch / Michelin Tyre Co. Ltd. 155 (1970).

  39. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique, centre et sud, Madagascar: Africa, central and south, Madagascar. 155 (1974).

  40. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique, centre et sud, Madagascar: Africa, central and south, Madagascar. vol. lle éd., 1981. (1981).

  41. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique, centre et sud, Madagascar: Africa, central and south, Madagascar. 955 (1988).

  42. Pneu Michelin (Firm) & Michelin Cartes et guides (Firm). Africa, central & south, Madagascar: scenic routes, temperatures, rainfall per region = Afrique, centre et sud, Madagascar : parcours pittoresques, températures, pluviométrie. vols 2-2007. (2007).

  43. Michelin Éditions des voyages (Firm) & Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique, nord et ouest: carte routière et touristique : climat = [Afrīqiyā, al-shamāl al-gharb] = Africa, north and west. vol. 1st publis 2003. (2003).

  44. Michelin Travel Partner (Firm) & Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique nord et ouest, carte routière et touristique: niveau e viabilité des routes, temperatures, pluviométrie = Africa north & west, motoring and tourist map : suitability for vehicles, scenic routes, rainfall per region. vol. Édition 7-20 (2019).

  45. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique, nord et ouest: Africa, north and west = [Afrīqiyā al-shamāl wa-al-gharb]. vol. 1976 9e éd. (1976).

  46. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique, nord et ouest: [Afrīqiyā, al-shamāl al-gharb] = Africa, north and west. vol. 15e éd., 1988-1989. (1988).

  47. Pneu Michelin (Firm). Afrique, nord et ouest: carte routière et touristique = [Afrīqiyā, al-shamāl al-gharb] = Africa, north and west. vol. 17e éd., 1991-1992. (1991).

  48. Hijmans, R. DIVA-GIS | free, simple & effective. DIVA-GIS https://www.diva-gis.org/ (2022).

  49. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). ArcGIS Desktop. (2012).

  50. GRASS GIS -. Bringing advanced geospatial technologies to the world. (2023). https://grass.osgeo.org/

  51. Carioli, A., Schiavina, M., Freire, S., MacManus, K. & GHS-POP R A – GHS population grid multitemporal (1975–2030). European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) (2023). https://doi.org/10.2905/2FF68A52-5B5B-4A22-8F40-C41DA8332CFE

  52. Camacho, A. et al. Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease. Epidemics 9, 70–78 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  53. WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola virus disease in West Africa—the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N. Engl. J. Med. 371, 1481–1495 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  54. Amblard, J. et al. Identification of the Ebola virus in Gabon in 1994. Lancet 349, 181–182 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  55. 1996 – Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever in Gabon (New Outbreak) – Update 2. (1996). https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/1996_10_18-en

  56. 2001 – Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever in Gabon – Update. (2001). https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2001_12_11-en

  57. Gabon : Ebola Outbreak Appeal No. 04/2002 Operations Update No. 01 – Congo | ReliefWeb. (2002). https://reliefweb.int/report/congo/gabon-ebola-outbreak-appeal-no-042002-operations-update-no-01

  58. Formenty, P. et al. Outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in the Republic of the Congo, 2003: a new strategy? Med. Trop. (Mars). 63, 291–295 (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  59. Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever in the Republic of the Congo – Update 5. (2003). https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2003_02_26-en

  60. Nkoghe, D., Kone, M. L., Yada, A. & Leroy, E. A limited outbreak of Ebola haemorrhagic fever in Etoumbi, Republic of Congo, 2005. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 105, 466–472 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  61. Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever in the Democratic Republic of the Congo – Update 3. (2007). https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2007_09_27-en

  62. Grard, G. et al. Emergence of divergent Zaire Ebola virus strains in Democratic Republic of the congo in 2007 and 2008. J. Infect. Dis. 204, S776–S784 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  63. OCHA ROWCA. Sub-national time series data on Ebola cases and deaths in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal and Mali since March 2014 – Humanitarian Data Exchange. (2015)

  64. WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola virus disease in West Africa—the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N. Engl. J. Med. 371, 1481–1495 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  65. Maganga, G. D. et al. Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of congo. N. Engl. J. Med. 371, 2083–2091 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  66. Grimes, K. E. et al. Contextual, social and epidemiological characteristics of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Likati health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2017. Front. Public. Health. 8, 349 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  67. Hemingway-Foday, J. J. et al. Lessons learned from reinforcing epidemiologic surveillance during the 2017 Ebola outbreak in the Likati district, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Health security 18, S-81 (2020).

  68. Democratic Republic of Congo: Ebola Virus Disease – External Situation Report 15 – Democratic Republic of the Congo. (2018). https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/democratic-republic-congo-ebola-virus-disease-external-situation-13

  69. Ebola Virus Disease Democratic Republic of Congo. 6 (2018). https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/272509/SITREP-EVD-DRC-20180511.pdf?ua=1

  70. DRC Ministry of Health. Ebola Cases and Deaths in the North Kivu Ebola Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – Humanitarian Data Exchange. OCHA Services HDX (2025).

  71. Vossler, H. et al. Analysis of individual-level data from 2018–2020 Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of the congo. Sci. Rep. 12, 5534 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  72. Ebola Virus Disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. (2020). https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/ebola-virus-disease-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

  73. Ebola Disease. WHO | Regional Office for Africa https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-disease (2023).

  74. Hasan, S., Ahmad, S. A., Masood, R. & Saeed, S. Ebola virus: A global public health menace: A narrative review. J. Family Med. Prim. Care. 8, 2189–2201 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  75. Pu, Q., Yoo, E. H., Rothstein, D. H., Cairo, S. & Malemo, L. Improving the Spatial accessibility of healthcare in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of congo. Appl. Geogr. 121, 102262 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  76. Mylne, A. et al. A comprehensive database of the geographic spread of past human Ebola outbreaks. Sci. Data. 1, 140042 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  77. Mevik, B. H. & Cederkvist, H. R. Mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) estimates for principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares regression (PLSR). J. Chemom. 18, 422–429 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  78. R: The R Project for Statistical Computing. https://www.r-project.org/

  79. Breman, J. G. et al. The epidemiology of Ebola haemorrhagic fever in Zaire 1976. in Proceedings of an International Colloquium on Ebola Virus Infection and Other Haemorrhagic Fevers held in Antwerp, Belgium 103–124 (Elsevier / North-Holland Biomedical Press, Antwerp, Belgium, (1978).

  80. Furmankiewicz, J. & Kucharska, M. Migration of bats along a large river Valley in Southwestern Poland. J. Mammal. 90, 1310–1317 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  81. Leroy, E. M. et al. Human Ebola outbreak resulting from direct exposure to fruit bats in Luebo, Democratic Republic of Congo, 2007. Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis. 9, 723–728 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  82. World Bank Group. Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review. 89 http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1203-3 (2018).

  83. Rulli, M. C., Santini, M., Hayman, D. T. S. & D’Odorico, P. The nexus between forest fragmentation in Africa and Ebola virus disease outbreaks. Sci. Rep. 7, 41613 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  84. Kuisma, E. et al. Long-term wildlife mortality surveillance in Northern congo: a model for the detection of Ebola virus disease epizootics. Philosophical Trans. Royal Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 374, 20180339 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank Christina Faust and Ephraim Hanks for their valuable feedback and insight in the development of this manuscript.

Funding

This study was supported by the joint National Institutes of Health (NIH) – National Science Foundation (NSF) – National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease (award R01TW012434 to NB), NSF RAPID (award 2202872 to NB), and the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), NIH (1ZIAAI001179-01 to VM). SNS was partly supported by funding to Verena (viralemergence.org) from the NSF (award BII 2021909 and BII 2213854). Funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biology Department and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, 16802, PA, USA

    Alexandria Gonzalez, Behnam Nikparvar, Kelsee Baranowski & Nita Bharti

  2. Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Utah Health, Salt Lake, UT, 84132, USA

    M. Jeremiah Matson

  3. Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99164, USA

    Stephanie N. Seifert

  4. Donald W. Hamer Center for Maps and Geospatial Information, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Libraries, PA, 16802, USA

    Heather D. Ross

  5. Division of Intramural Research, Laboratory of Virology, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Rocky Mountain Laboratories, Hamilton, MT, 59840, USA

    Vincent Munster

Authors

  1. Alexandria Gonzalez
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Behnam Nikparvar
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. M. Jeremiah Matson
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kelsee Baranowski
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Stephanie N. Seifert
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Heather D. Ross
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Vincent Munster
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Nita Bharti
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

NB and VM were responsible for the concept of the study. NB, AG, KB, and BN completed the analyses and prepared the figures. VM and MJM provided relevant insight, data, and feedback. HDR provided support for map discovery, archiving, and digitization. NB and AG prepared the first draft of the manuscript. All authors reviewed and approved the manuscript before submission.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to
Nita Bharti.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary Material 1

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gonzalez, A., Nikparvar, B., Matson, M.J. et al. Links between infrastructure for human movement and early Ebola outbreak trajectories.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33688-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33688-y

Keywords

  • Movement
  • Spillovers
  • Ebola
  • Roads
  • Pathogen transmission

Source: Ecology - nature.com

Genome wide data recover hierarchical genetic structure and help define conservation units for the threatened Asian Houbara

Systemic approaches for the protection of our oceans and marine environments

This portal is not a newspaper as it is updated without periodicity. It cannot be considered an editorial product pursuant to law n. 62 of 7.03.2001. The author of the portal is not responsible for the content of comments to posts, the content of the linked sites. Some texts or images included in this portal are taken from the internet and, therefore, considered to be in the public domain; if their publication is violated, the copyright will be promptly communicated via e-mail. They will be immediately removed.

Back to Top
Close