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Model-based nitrogen optimization for bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in central Oromia, Ethiopia using CERES-wheat

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Abstract

Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in Ethiopia, particularly in Central Oromia, is constrained by the continued use of blanket nitrogen (N) fertilizer recommendations that fail to account for site-specific conditions and increasing climate variability. This study aimed to optimize N management for yield and environmental sustainability and to determine economic optimum nitrogen rates (EONRs) under current and future climate scenarios. The CERES-Wheat model within the DSSAT framework was calibrated and validated to simulate wheat growth under multiple N application rates and split strategies across three representative locations (Degem, Fitche, and Bishoftu) using projected climate scenarios (SSP4.5 and SSP8.5) for the 2050s and 2080s. Model outputs were analyzed for grain yield, aboveground biomass, nitrogen uptake, nitrous oxide emissions, nitrogen leaching, and economic returns, and nitrogen response functions were used to estimate EONRs. Simulations showed that grain yield, biomass, N uptake, and N2O emissions increased very highly significant (P < 0.001) with increasing N rates, with the highest biological performance observed at 115 kg N ha−1 applied in three splits. Economic analysis indicated that 115 kg N ha−1 applied in three splits maximized net returns at Degem and Bishoftu, while two split applications were economically optimal at Fitche. The control treatment resulted in the lowest net benefit and marginal rate of return (0%). Nitrogen leaching was not significantly affected by fertilizer management, suggesting a stronger influence of climatic variability than N rate or splitting strategy. Nitrogen response function analysis projected higher future EONRs, ranging from 158–169 kg N ha−1 at Degem, 182–185 kg N ha−1 at Fitche, and 180–191 kg N ha−1 at Bishoftu. Overall, the results demonstrate that current blanket N fertilizer recommendations are suboptimal under both present and future climates. The study recommends adopting climate-smart, site-specific nitrogen management strategies supported by crop simulation models such as CERES-Wheat to enhance wheat productivity, profitability, and environmental sustainability in Ethiopia.

Data availability

The data will be made available on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The National Meteorological Institute of Ethiopia for providing long-term climate data and Haramaya University for financial support are acknowledged. The authors also express gratitude to two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments.

Funding

The author does not receive any fund from any organization, commercialization and government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Plant Sciences, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Seifu Kibebew & Yibekal Alemayehu

  2. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), P.O. Box 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Nigussie Dechassa

  3. Alliance of Biodiversity International and CIAT Multifunctional Landscape, P.O. Box 158, Lilongwe, Malawi

    Feyera Merga

  4. College of Agriculture and Natural Resources Plant Science Department, Salale University, P. O. Box. 245, Fitche, Ethiopia

    Girma Megersa

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  1. Seifu Kibebew
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  2. Nigussie Dechassa
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  3. Yibekal Alemayehu
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  4. Feyera Merga
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Contributions

Seifu Kibebew contributed to the original study design, methodology, data analysis, and wrote the original draft of the manuscript. Dr. Nigussie Dechassa and Dr. Yibekal Alemayehu were responsible for data retrieval, software, data curation, and contributed to the review and critical revision of the manuscript. Dr. Feyera Merga and Dr. Girma Megersa assisted with the interpretation of results and the final editing and review of the article.

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Seifu Kibebew.

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Kibebew, S., Dechassa, N., Alemayehu, Y. et al. Model-based nitrogen optimization for bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in central Oromia, Ethiopia using CERES-wheat.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-45892-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-45892-5

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Economic optimum
  • Grain yield
  • Nitrogen management
  • Nitrogen response function

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