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Modeling the environment-related risk of frogeye leaf spot (Cercospora sojina) in soybean across the United States


Abstract

Frogeye leaf spot (FLS), caused by Cercospora sojina, is a common soybean disease across the U.S. Fungicides are a key management tool, particularly when susceptible cultivars are planted; however, widespread QoI resistance has raised concern about overreliance on the remaining effective fungicide classes. Protecting these chemical classes is essential for long-term sustainability, particularly under narrow profit margins. To develop an FLS prediction model that supports more efficient fungicide use, environmental and epidemiological data from multiple site-years were analyzed in 2024 using correlation analysis, logistic regression (LR), and machine-learning approaches. The most effective model combined a 30-day moving average (ma) of daily hours of relative humidity (RH) ≥ 80% and maximum temperature (°C) in a LR model. FLS risk peaked when the 30-d ma of daily hours of RH ≥ 80% was 15–20 h and maximum temperature was 24–36 °C. When daily hours of RH ≥ 80% averaged < 5 h, risk remained low regardless of temperature. Random forest and support vector machine models achieved greater accuracy and sensitivity than LR but showed poorer specificity. This research provides a strong epidemiological foundation for improving decision-making and advancing integrated disease management. The resulting prediction model is deployed in a public decision support system (https://cropprotectionnetwork.org/crop-disease-forecasting), enabling real-time FLS risk assessments and promoting stewardship-minded fungicide use.

Data availability

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are not publicly available to preserve farm-level anonymity, but county-level data are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Environmental variables were obtained through the IBM Environmental Intelligence Suite (EIS) weather data API, a proprietary dataset accessible via paid license from IBM. Information regarding access to the IBM Environmental Intelligence Suite and its weather data products is available at: [https://www.ibm.com/products/environmental-intelligence](https:/www.ibm.com/products/environmental-intelligence) . Researchers with appropriate access to IBM Environmental Intelligence Suite can independently obtain equivalent environmental data using the methods described in this study.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the numerous research staff and students from several research groups whose efforts made this work possible. Their contributions in establishing, maintaining and monitoring experiments, as well as data collection, were vital to the development of this study. We sincerely thank them for their time, expertise, and care in generating the dataset that underpinned this research.

Funding

This research was partially supported by Iowa State University USDA Hatch Project IOW04108 and the soybean checkoff through the United Soybean Board, North Central Soybean Research Program, Atlantic Soybean Council, Mid-South Soybean Board, Southern Soybean Research Program, Indiana Soybean Alliance, and Louisiana Soybean and Feed Grains Research and Promotion Board.

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J.F.G. and R.W.W. ran the statistical analysis and co-wrote the manuscript draft. R.W.W. is the corresponding author. All authors contributed to the collection of data and reviewed and edited the iterative manuscript drafts.

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Richard W. Webster.

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González-Acuña, J.F., Allen, T.W., Bish, M.D. et al. Modeling the environment-related risk of frogeye leaf spot (Cercospora sojina) in soybean across the United States.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46975-z

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Keywords

  • Predictive modeling
  • Decision support systems


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