Search

Menu
Search
in Ecology

Multi-objective scenarios analysis for optimizing mariculture spatial allocation: a case study of Lianyungang, China

93 Views


Abstract

Optimizing the spatial allocation of fishery production is crucial for implementing the China’s “Blue Granary” strategy and achieving sustainable utilization of fishery resources. An optimization framework was constructed from three objectives dimensions: demand, pattern, and efficiency. Taking the sea area of Lianyungang in Jiangsu Province as a case study, compound annual growth rate models were used to predict the mariculture output in 2030. The spatial pattern was optimized through spatial identification of protected area and fishery resource, environmental suitability assessment, and spatial use compatibility analysis. Subsequently, an adaptation matrix aligning spatial zones and aquaculture mode was established, proposing multi-scenario mariculture spatial layouts. The results were as follows: 1) Based on 2018 and 2022 as reference years, the predicted mariculture outputs for Jiangsu in 2030 are 1.1375 million tonnes and 1.0658 million tonnes, respectively, with the study area contributing 173,200 tonnes and 158,800 tonnes;2) Spatial analysis identified 891.7 km² of fishery conservation zones and 1,853.8 km² of suitable aquaculture areas within the study region, including 1,205.4 km² suitable for deep-water aquaculture and 648.4 km² for shallow-water aquaculture, of which 188.3 km² are multifunctional three-dimensional spaces; 3) Four scenarios were simulated based on predicted yields and per-unit-area productivity, with spatial layouts optimized using method-specific spatial parameter matching. The spatial ranges for the four aquaculture methods under different scenarios are as follows: deep-water cage culture requires 3,715-4,035 cubic meters of water space, raft culture necessitates 1,755-2,165 hectares of marine area, suspended cage culture occupies 295–725 hectares of operational range, and bottom sowing requires 1,280-1,855 hectares of seabed area. This study presents a methodological framework for mariculture spatial optimization that may contribute to sustainable marine fisheries development.

Similar content being viewed by others

Anticipating trade-offs and promoting synergies between small-scale fisheries and aquaculture to improve social, economic, and ecological outcomes

Article
Open access
04 January 2024

No significant projected climate change effects on the geographic ranges of marine aquaculture species under the sustainable scenario (SSP 1-1.9, 1.5°C warming)

Article
Open access
27 December 2025

Spatiotemporal distribution and fishing ground driving mechanism of swimming crab Portunus trituberculatus in Hangzhou Bay and its adjacent waters

Article
Open access
01 July 2025

Data availability

The authors declare that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper. Should any raw data files be needed in another format they are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

References

  1. Gao, J. T., Li, J. M. & Liu, T. Y. Analysis of Consumer Demand Trends and Influencing Factors for Aquatic Products in China. Dong Yue Tribune. 34 (01), 118–123 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Wang, Y. G., Zhao, M. J. & Zhao, L. Research on the Consumption of Aquatic Products in China under the Target of Dietary Balance for Residents. China Fisheries. 10, 48–50 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Xin, L. J., Wang, J. Y. & Wang, L. X. Prospect of Per Capita Grain Demand Driven by Dietary Structure Change in China. Resour. Sci. 37 (07), 1347–1356 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  4. Yuan, X. J., Yang, Z. J., Li, X. & Zhang, Y. Z. Forecast and Policy Suggestion of Consumption of Aquatic Products in China. Ocean. Dev. Manage. 41 (03), 153–162 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Barbeaux, S. J., Holsman, K. & Zador, S. Marine Heatwave Stress Test of Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management in the Gulf of Alaska Pacific Cod Fishery. Front. Mar. Sci. 7, 703. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00703 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  6. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management Policy (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2016).

  7. Huang, M. R., Ding, L. Y., Wang, J., Ding, C. Z. & Tao, J. The Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth: A Summary of Conducted Studies and Current Knowledge. Ecol. Ind. 121, 106976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106976( (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Rogers, L. A., Griffin, R., Young, T., Fuller, E. & Pinsky, M. L. Shifting Habitats Expose Fishing Communities to Risk Under Climate Change. Nat. Clim. Change. 9, 512–516 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Inglis, G. J., Hayden, B. J. & Ross, A. H. An Overview of Factors Affecting the Carrying Capacity of Coastal Embayments for Mussel Culture (National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, 2000).

  10. Zhao, Y., Zhang, J., Wu, W., Teng, F. & Zhu, Y. Assessing Environmental Carrying Capacity of Sea Cage Culture in the Yellow Sea, China, Using a Coupled Diffusion Model. Aquaculture 520, 735009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2020.735009( (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Gentry, R. R., Froehlich, H. E., Grimm, D., Kareiva, P. & Halpern, B. S. Mapping the Global Potential for Marine Aquaculture. Nature Ecol. & Evolution, 1(9):1317–1324. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0257-9(2017).

  12. Geng, W. Q., Wang, Q. & Zhan, C. Suitability Assessment of Marine Ranching Site Selection: A Case Study of Yantai Northern Sea Area. Mar. Environ. Sci. 42 (02), 302–308 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Liang, X. et al. Delineating Multi-Scenario Urban Growth Boundaries with a CA-Based FLUS Model and Morphological Method. Landsc. Urban Plann. 177, 47–63 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Ma, S. H. & Wen, Z. Z. Optimization of Land Use Structure to Balance Economic Benefits and Ecosystem Services Under Uncertainties: A Case Study in Wuhan, China. J. Clean. Prod. 311, 127537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127537 (2021).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Liu, H. Y. et al. Safety Assessment of Cultivated Land Production and Zoning of Potential Productivity Improvement in North China Plain. Journal Agricultural Sci. Technology https://doi.org/10.13304/j.nykjdb.2024.0272(2025).

  16. Zhu, Y. T., Ding, Y., Bai, W. X., Yan, S. Y. & Liu, G. S. Optimization of County-Level Territorial Spatial Patterns in Major Agricultural Production Areas Under Multi-Objective Synergy. Trans. Chin. Soc. Agricultural Eng. 41 (02), 281–290 (2025).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Wang, J., Zhang, C. L., Xue, Y., Reng, Y. P. & Xu, B. D. Interspecific Association of Main Fish Species in the Haizhou Bay and Its Adjacent Waters. Chin. J. Appl. Ecol. 31 (01), 293–300 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  18. Van, G. M. & Hatton, L. Compound Annual Growth Rate for Software. IEEE Softw. 29 (04), 19–21. https://doi.org/10.1109/MS.2012.79 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Kapetsky, J. M., Agular-Manjarrez, J. & Jenness, J. A. Global Assessment of Offshore Mariculture Potential from a Spatial Perspective (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2013).

  20. Qiao, S. Y., Fan, Y. P. & Yin, W. Spatiotemporal Dynamic Assessment and Obstacle Analysis of Economic Resilience in China’s Marine Fisheries. Scientific Reports, 14:27818. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79238-w(2024).

  21. Sanchez-Jerez, P., Karakassis, I., Massa, F., Fezzardi, D. & Aguilar-Manjarrez, J. Aquaculture’s Struggle for Space: The Need for Coastal Spatial Planning and the Potential Benefits of Allocated Zones for Aquaculture (AZAs) to Avoid Conflict and Promote Sustainability. Aquaculture Environ. Interact. 8, 41–54 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Kyriazi, Z. From Identification of Compatibilities and Conflicts to Reaching Marine Spatial Allocation Agreements. Review of Actions Required and Relevant Tools and Processes. Ocean Coast. Manag. 166, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.03.018 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Wang, Q. L., Wang, J. T., Wu, P., Yang, X. & Cheng, Y. X. Layout Approach and Use Management for Deep and Far Sea Space: A Case Study on the Outer Sea of Eastern Guangdong Province. Trans. Chin. Soc. Agricultural Eng. 40 (22), 306–314 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Cho, Y., Lee, W. C., Hong, S., Kim, H. C. & Kim, J. B. GIS-Based Suitable Site Selection Using Habitat Suitability Index for Oyster Farms in Geoje-Hansan Bay, Korea. Ocean Coast. Manag. 56 (02), 10–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2011.10.009 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Qiu, M., Zhang, Y., Sui, C. G. & Yang, P. F. Suitability Evaluation of Deep-Water Cage Aquaculture Based on GIS: Taking Changhai County as an Example. J. Fisheries Res. 40 (06), 449–457 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Sun, Q. W. et al. GIS-Based Assessment for Culture Suitability of Kelp (Saccharina japonica) in Sanggou Bay and the Surrounding Waters. Progress Fish. Sci. 41 (01), 41–50 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Vanacker, M., Wezel, A., Arthaud, F., Guerin, M. & Robin, J. Determination of Tipping Points for Aquatic Plants and Water Quality Parameters in Fish Pond Systems: A Multi-Year Approach. Ecol. Ind. 64, 39–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.12.033 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Zhao, Y. et al. Study on Suitability Evaluation and Aquaculture Planning of Mariculture in Sanmen Bay. Transactions Oceanol. Limnology https://doi.org/10.19637/j.cnki.2305-7067.2025.01.012(2025).

  29. Ma, R. F., Zhu, B. Y., Ma, J. W. & Shao, Z. H. Research on the Judgment of Coordination of Marine Function Classification System. J. Nat. Resour. 37 (04), 850–861 (2022).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Wang, J. T. & Liu, B. Q. Preliminary Study on the Compatibility Discrimination Methods of Marine Function Zoning: A Case Study of Port Functional Zones. Mar. Sci. Bull. 30 (05), 496–501 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Yue, Q., Zhao, M. & Xu, W. A Study on Connotation, Features and Judgment of Compatibility of Marine Function Zoning. J. Ocean. Univ. China (Social Sciences). 03, 32–36 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Belton, B., Bush, S. R. & Little, D. C. Not Just for the Wealthy: Rethinking Farmed Fish Consumption in the Global South. Global Food Secur. 16, 85–92 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2022: Towards Blue Transformation. Rome.(2022) https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0461en

  34. Zhang, Y. Z., Yang, Z. J., Yuan, X. J. & Xu, L. J. Research on the Consumption Trend Changes of Aquatic Products in China from the Perspective of Consumption Upgrading. Chin. Fisheries Econ. 42 (04), 106–115 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Crona, B. et al. China at a Crossroads: An Analysis of China’s Changing Seafood Production and Consumption. One Earth. 3, 32–44 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  36. Chen, Q. & Han, L. M. Analysis and Prediction of Factors Influencing the Consumer Demand for Aquatic Products in Residential Households. Stat. Decis. 17, 97–100 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Little, D. C., Newton, R. W., Beveridge, M. C. M. & Aquaculture A Rapidly Growing and Significant Source of Sustainable Food? Status, Transitions and Potential. Proceedings of the Nutrition Society, 75(03):274–286 (2016).

  38. Garlock, T. et al. Global Blue Revolution: Aquaculture Growth Across Regions, Species, and Countries. Reviews Fisheries Sci. Aquaculture. 28 (01), 107–116 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  39. Tan, C. & Zhang, X. S. Analysis on the Factors Affecting the Consumption of Aquatic Products in the Urban Areas of China. Chin. Fisheries Econ. 05, 41–43 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Sindhuja, P. V. N. & Singh, H. L. Global and National Performance of the Livestock Sector: Growth Rate Analysis. Curr. Adv. Agricultural Sci. 01, 15 (2023).

    Google Scholar 

  41. Zhang, B. Economic Growth and Urban Land Expansion in China: Evidence from Provincial Panel Data. J. Resour. Ecol. 5 (04), 312–320 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  42. Burnell G, Allan G. New technologies in aquaculture: Improving production efficiency, quality and environmental management (Cambridge: Woodhead Publishing Limited, 2009).

  43. Xie, Q. Q., Liu, C. S., Sun, W. J. & Liu, L. S. Study on the Connection Between Marine and Land Systems on Reclamation Management. Mar. Econ. 14 (05), 38–44 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  44. He, Y. X., Zhang, D. J. & Li, F. R. Exploring the Promoting Effect of Maritime Power on the Mariculture Industry Based on Difference-in-Differences Method. Mar. Econ. https://doi.org/10.19426/j.cnki.cn12-1424/p.20231107.001 (2025).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Zhang, H. Y. & Qiu, T. Research on Strategies for High-Level Construction of Blue Granary in Jiangsu Province Under the Threshold of Big Food Perspective. J. Jiangsu Ocean. Univ. (Humanities Social Sci. Edition). 22 (03), 12–21 (2024).

    Google Scholar 

  46. Patricio, A. D., Lvarez, G., Varela, D., Iván, P. S. & Figueroa, R. I. Impacts of Harmful Algal Blooms on the Aquaculture Industry: Chile as a Case Study. Perspectives in Phycology. https://doi.org/10.1127/pip/2019/0081 (2019).

  47. Reid, G. K., Gurney-Smith, H. J., Marcogliese, D. J., Knowler, D. & Silva, S. D. Climate Change and Aquaculture: Considering Biological Response and Resources. Aquaculture Environ. Interact. 11, 569–602 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  48. Wang, J., Beusen, A. H. W., Liu, X. & Bouwman, A. F. Aquaculture Production is a Large, Spatially Concentrated Source of Nutrients in Chinese Freshwater and Coastal Seas. Environ. Sci. Technol. 54, 1464–1474 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  49. Han, L. M. Research on the Blue Granary Strategy in the Development of China’s Marine Affairs (Economic Science, 2018).

  50. Stevens, J. R., Newton, R. W., Tlusty, M. & Little, D. C. The Rise of Aquaculture By-Products: Increasing Food Production, Value, and Sustainability Through Strategic Utilisation. Mar. Policy. 90, 115–124 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  51. Ferreira, J. G. et al. Integrated Assessment of Ecosystem-Scale Carrying Capacity in Shellfish Growing Areas. Aquaculture 275 (1–4), 138–151 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  52. Fang, J., Zhang, J., Xiao, T., Huang, D. & Liu, S. Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) in Sanggou Bay, China. Aquaculture Environ. Interact. 8, 201–205 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  53. Lavaud, R., Guyondet, T., Filgueira, R., Tremblay, R. & Comeau, L. A. Modelling Bivalve Culture-Eutrophication Interactions in Shallow Coastal Ecosystems. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 157, 111282 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  54. Wan, A. H. L., Davies, S. J., Soler-Vila, A., Fitzgerald, R. & Johnson, M. P. Macroalgae as a Sustainable Aquafeed Ingredient. Reviews Aquaculture. 11, 458–492 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  55. Shao, F. et al. Effect of Environmental Factors and Algae Density on the Growth and Nutrient Uptake in Porphyra yezoensis. Acta Ecol. Sin. 34 (21), 6164–6171 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  56. Yuan, H. R. et al. Exploration of Ecological Theoretical Framework for the Creation of Artificial Reef Habitat in Marine Ranching. J. Fisheries China. 49 (01), 3–26 (2025).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This study was supported by the program of opening ceremony to select the best candidates of the Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Monitoring and Restoration Technology, MNR (MEMRT2024JBGS01).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Marine Data and Information Service, Tianjin, 300171, China

    Qiulu Wang & Yaning Li

  2. Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China

    Changjuan Li

Authors

  1. Qiulu Wang
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Changjuan Li
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yaning Li
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Qiulu Wang wrote the main text of the manuscript, performed the data analysis and summaries, and drew all the figures. Changjuan Li and Yaning Li collected relevant information and helped to organize the structure of the paper. All authors have read and agreed to the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to
Qiulu Wang.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary Material 1 (download DOCX )

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Wang, Q., Li, C. & Li, Y. Multi-objective scenarios analysis for optimizing mariculture spatial allocation: a case study of Lianyungang, China.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-45733-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-45733-5

Keywords

  • Spatial allocation
  • Mariculture production
  • Production mode
  • Spatial matching
  • Multi-objective

Source: Ecology - nature.com

Microplastics Interception from Riverine Ecosystems and Translocation to Fish Internal Organs

Cell biology’s fantastic voyage to Planet Earth

This portal is not a newspaper as it is updated without periodicity. It cannot be considered an editorial product pursuant to law n. 62 of 7.03.2001. The author of the portal is not responsible for the content of comments to posts, the content of the linked sites. Some texts or images included in this portal are taken from the internet and, therefore, considered to be in the public domain; if their publication is violated, the copyright will be promptly communicated via e-mail. They will be immediately removed.

Back to Top
Close