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Non-monotonic effects and spatial spillovers of urban green space on chronic infectious disease dynamics in China

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Abstract

As global public health faces unprecedented challenges, Urban Green Space (UGS) is increasingly recognized as a vital instrument for health intervention. However, its efficacy in mitigating infectious diseases remains conceptually contested. Drawing on longitudinal data from 300 Chinese prefecture-level cities (2003–2023), this study employs Spatial Durbin Models (SDM) and threshold regression to unravel the complex spatio-temporal trade-offs between UGS and chronic infectious diseases. Focusing on the mitigation of chronic infectious diseases, our findings challenge linear paradigms by unveiling a non-monotonic “risk-to-resilience” transition. In the nascent stages of greening, UGS expansion may paradoxically create a “pathogenic window” elevating transmission risk through intensified human-wildlife-environment interactions. However, once UGS coverage surpasses a critical tipping point, it serves as a potent ecological shield, significantly curbing the spread and latency of chronic infectious diseases. This suppression is achieved through microclimate stabilization, bio-filtration, and the enhancement of community salutogenesis. Furthermore, our analysis reveals robust positive spatial externalities, demonstrating that protection against chronic infections propagates across administrative borders via ecological corridors. This study identifies a pivotal scale effect in green governance, positioning UGS as a long-term strategic asset for demographic health. Our results advocate for a transition from localized planting to trans-regional collaborative green infrastructure networks, providing crucial theoretical scaffolding for the Healthy China 2030 initiative and the management of chronic infectious risks.

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [[email protected]], upon reasonable request.

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Funding

Funder: National Social Science Fund of China. Key Project “Research on the Financial and Fiscal Synergy Mechanism and Policy Optimization for Promoting Ecological Industrialization in Ethnic Regions”. Project Approval Number: 24AMZ009. Recipient: Dongmei Zhang Funder: supported by the Graduate Research Projects of Minzu University of ChinaKey Project “Research on the Mechanism, Path and Effect of Ecological Compensation Empowering County-level Ecological Industry Development” Project Approval Number: BZZKY-Y2025106Recipient: Xiaoning Zheng

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Haidian, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xiaoning Zheng, Boyuan Wang & Dongmei Zhang

  2. School of Management, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Minden, Penang, 11800, Malaysia

    Yujue Wang

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  1. Xiaoning Zheng
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  2. Yujue Wang
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  3. Boyuan Wang
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Contributions

First Author: Xiaoning ZhengConceptualization, Methodology, Software, Investigation, Formal Analysis, Writing – Original Draft; Second Author: Yujue WangConceptualization, Writing – Review & Editing, Writing – Original Draft; Third Author: Boyuan WangConceptualization, Writing – Review & Editing, Revise; Corresponding Author: Dongmei ZhangConceptualization, Resources, Supervision, Writing – Review & Editing.

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Correspondence to
Dongmei Zhang.

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Zheng, X., Wang, Y., Wang, B. et al. Non-monotonic effects and spatial spillovers of urban green space on chronic infectious disease dynamics in China.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41543-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41543-x

Keywords

  • Urban Green Space
  • Chronic Infectious Diseases
  • Spatial Externalities
  • Non-monotonic Relationship
  • Public Health Resilience

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