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Observed and projected climate extremes in northwest highlands of Ethiopia and their implications in potato-based farming systems

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Abstract

Potato, a vital staple crop widely grown in the Ethiopian highlands, is sensitive to climate extremes. In this study, extreme rainfall and temperature trends were analyzed in northwest Ethiopia lower highland (Lower Dega) and upper highland (Upper Dega) agroecosystems (AESs) using Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) dataset for 1989–2018 and MIROC6 projections for near-term (2019–2048) and mid-century (2049–2078) period under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios to inform adaptation strategies. The extreme indices were computed using RClimDex2.0, while the significance of observed trends was evaluated using the Modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator in R. Relatively higher extreme rainfall events were observed in Upper Dega. Observed annual total wet day rainfall (PRCPTOT) increased by 168 and 67 mm per decade, while the highest maximum monthly consecutive five-day precipitation (RX5day) increased by 13.8 and 2.5 mm per decade in Lower Dega and Upper Dega AESs, respectively. The projected PRCPTOT, extremely wet days (R99P), and number of very heavy precipitation days (R20) showed an increase in the range of 13.11–16.29%, 20.25–35.17%, and 44.83–57.95% across AESs, with the highest values anticipated in Upper Dega under SSP5-8.5 in mid-century. The highest rise in temperature extremes was projected for the warmest days (TXx) and warmest nights (TNx) with values of 1.74 and 1.77 °C and 1.65 and 1.95 °C in Lower Dega and Upper Dega AESs, respectively, under SSP5-8.5 in mid-century. Future agronomic practices and variety improvement activities should consider these results for climate-resilient potato production in the northwest Ethiopia potato-growing areas.

Data availability

Data will be made available on request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the University of Gondar for funding the research project and the Ethiopian National Meteorological Institute (NMI) for providing climate data.

Funding

The University of Gondar, Ethiopia, funded the research work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant Sciences, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia

    Asrat Ayalew

  2. Stichting Wageningen Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Mezegebu Getnet

  3. Department of Horticulture, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia

    Dereje Ademe

  4. Department of Agronomy, Everglades Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Belle Glade, FL 334330, USA

    Dereje Ademe

  5. Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Achenafi Teklay

  6. Department of Horticulture, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia

    Asrat Ayalew, Aleminew Tagele & Shegaw Getu

  7. Water Resources Professionals Association “Yewha Habt Balemuyawoch Mahiber”, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Achenafi Teklay

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  1. Asrat Ayalew
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Contributions

A.A.: Conceptualized, designed the methodology, collected and analyzed data, acquired funding, wrote the draft report, reviewed and edited the report. M.G: Conceptualized and designed the methodology, reviewed and edited the report, supervised and validated the research work. D.A.: Conceptualized and designed the methodology, reviewed and edited the report, supervised and validated the research work. T.A.: Conceptualized and designed the methodology, reviewed and edited the report, supervised and validated the research work. A.T.: Conceptualized and designed the methodology, acquired funding, administered and supervised the project, and reviewed and edited the report. S.G.: Conceptualized and designed the methodology, acquired funding, administered and supervised the project, and reviewed and edited the report.

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Asrat Ayalew.

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Ayalew, A., Getnet, M., Ademe, D. et al. Observed and projected climate extremes in northwest highlands of Ethiopia and their implications in potato-based farming systems.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47373-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47373-1

Keywords

  • Agroecosystems
  • Extreme Climate
  • Highland
  • Rainfall
  • Temperature
  • Trend

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