Abstract
Leaf longevity is a fundamental plant trait that largely explains ecosystem functional dynamics in global pantropical moist forests. However, the signs, magnitudes, and mechanisms of the spatiotemporal variations in leaf longevity with ongoing climate change are still lacking. Using both ground measurements and gridded leaf age-dependent leaf area index data, we map the continental-scale variability of annual mean leaf longevity across pantropical moist forests over 2001–2023. We find a biome-dependent and converging trend in leaf longevity under climate change. In Amazon and tropical Asia with long leaf longevity (> ~1.8 years), leaf longevity decreases due to rising temperature and intensified atmospheric dryness. In contrast, an increasing trend is observed in Congo and subtropical Asia where forests have short leaf longevity (<~1.8 years). These responses cause a convergence of pantropical short and long leaf longevity into a middle longevity range, with maximization of plant functional traits, photosynthesis, and species evenness, which are expected to better resist climate variability. Our study provides emerging evidence for large-scale structural and functional adaptions across pantropical moist forests and is helpful for predicting climate-driven risks to ecosystem stability.
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Data availability
All the relevant data in this study come from publicly available sources as follows: MODIS MCD12C1 Land Cover images: https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mcd12c1v061/; Global Forest Watch (GFW) tree cover images: https://glad.earthengine.app/view/global-forest-change; MODIS Fire_cci Burned Area Pixel product, version 5.1: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/3628cb2fdba443588155e15dee8e5352/; SPEI01 base v2.6: https://spei.csic.es/database.html; Terraclimate PDSI and Tair data: https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.html; TRMM Pre data: https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/TRMM_3B43_7/summary?keywords=TRMM; ERA5-Land VPD data: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land-monthly-means?tab=overview; Bess SW data: https://www.environment.snu.ac.kr/bess-rad; CO2 dataset: https://www.geodoi.ac.cn/edoi.aspx?DOI=10.3974/geodb.2021.11.01.V1; MODIS-GPP: https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod17a2hv006/; GOSIF-GPP: http://data.globalecology.unh.edu/data/GOSIF-GPP_v2/; RTSIF: https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/RTSIF_dataset/19336346/2; FLUXCOM RS + METEO GPP: https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/geodb/projects/Home.php; EC-LUE Model GPP: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.8942336.v3; TL-LUE Model GPP: https://nesdc.org.cn/sdo/detail?id=671486ad7e28174998399e5d; VPM GPP: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3789814; plant functional traits map: https://pantropicalanalysis.users.earthengine.app/view/pantropical-traits-aguirre-gutierrez-2025; Ku-VOD: https://zenodo.org/records/2575599; Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF): https://www.gbif.org/zh/species/search. The leaf longevity data generated in this study have been deposited in the Figshare database under accession code: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30750074. All in situ data that validate the leaf longevity data of this study are available in the Supplementary Data file. Source data are provided in this paper.
Code availability
The code in this study is archived on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17336535.
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This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42125101, 42471326, U21A6001) and the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong (2024B1212070012).
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X.C.: conceptualization, methodology, funding acquisition, supervision, and writing. M.X. and X.Y.: methodology, visualization, data processing, formal analysis, and writing. C.W.: methodology, review and editing. P.C., L.Z., P.B.R., J.X., X.L., X.X., J.K.G., J.M.C., J.L., J.S., X.Z.L., J.T., H.L., P.Z., K.Y., X.F., L.H., and W.Y.: review and editing. All authors contributed to the discussion and commented on the manuscript.
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Xue, M., Yang, X., Chen, X. et al. Pantropical moist forests are converging towards a middle leaf longevity.
Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68989-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68989-x
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