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Participatory One Health network modelling of climate-sensitive Vibrio and antimicrobial resistance risks in the Tasmanian oyster supply chain

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Abstract

Climate change is reshaping the ecology of foodborne pathogens, with implications for human, animal, and environmental health. In Australia, emerging risks associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in aquaculture threaten seafood safety. Integrative, One Health-aligned risk assessments remain limited. We aimed to characterise climate-sensitive dynamics of Vibrio and AMR risks in the Tasmanian oyster supply chain using a participatory systems modelling approach. We applied qualitative network modelling (QNM) to represent interactions across environmental, microbial, industry, and policy domains. The initial model was developed from a targeted literature synthesis and refined through expert elicitation workshops. The final model comprised of 25 nodes and 47 directional linkages and was analysed using QPress (R) to simulate responses to climate-related perturbations. Scenarios represented increases in air temperature, water temperature, extreme rainfall, and cross-sector collaboration and food safety awareness. The proportion of total simulations showing a positive, negative or no change were recorded for each node. Increasing air temperature amplified post-harvest Vibrio risks along the cold chain, increased consumer mishandling, and produced the highest propensity for V. parahaemolyticus outbreaks. Both air and water temperature increased Vibrio abundance in seawater and accumulation in oysters, with stronger downstream effects under air-temperature stress. Extreme rainfall most strongly affected AMR-related variables via pollution pathways; however, interpretation was limited due to knowledge gaps, indicating priorities for future empirical work. Combined climate perturbations acted additively rather than synergistically and were largely dominated by air temperature effects, reinforcing known vulnerabilities. In contrast, increasing cross-sector collaboration and food safety awareness generated favourable system-wide responses, including improvements in human health and oyster demand, alongside reductions in temperature abuse and consumer mishandling. Participatory systems modelling can operationalise One Health in climate-sensitive food systems. We identified key variables and feedbacks influencing Vibrio infection and AMR risks along the oyster supply chain, leverage points, and enabled exploration of interventions in a data-limited context. Findings emphasise the importance of cross-sector collaboration and targeted regulation to mitigate climate-driven Vibrio and AMR risks. This integrative approach offers a scalable decision-support tool for supply chain resilience, public health preparedness and climate adaptation planning.

Data availability

All de-identified and aggregated data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article and its additional information files.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the workshop participants for generously sharing their time, expertise, and practical insights, which informed the conceptualisation of the system, validation, and model development. We are especially grateful to Dr Jess Melbourne-Thomas for guidance on project design and on the qualitative network modelling approach.

Funding

Open access funding provided by CSIRO Library Services. This research was supported by funding from CSIRO Valuing Sustainability Future Science Platform, supported by the Agriculture, Food and Environment Research Units.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Environment, 3 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Hobart, TAS, 700, Australia

    Roshni C. Subramaniam

  2. Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 3 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Hobart, TAS, 7004, Australia

    Roshni C. Subramaniam

  3. CSIRO Agriculture and Food, 3 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Hobart, TAS, 7004, Australia

    Ilana Cox

  4. CSIRO Agriculture and Food , 306 Carmody Road, St. Lucia, Brisbane , QLD, 4067, Australia

    Esther A. Onyango

  5. Institute for Human and Environmental Resilience, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, 4122, Australia

    Esther A. Onyango

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  1. Roshni C. Subramaniam
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  3. Esther A. Onyango
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Contributions

RCS contributed to project design and methodology, model development, data acquisition, analysis and interpretation, manuscript draft and review, student co-supervision. IC contributed to data acquisitions and analysis, model development and interpretation, manuscript draft and review. EAO contributed to the project design and methodology, data acquisition, analysis and interpretation, manuscript draft and review, student co-supervision and overall project supervision.

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Esther A. Onyango.

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This study was approved by CSIRO’s Social Science Human Research Ethics Committee by the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research 2007 (Updated 2018). CSIRO Ethics Ref: 143/23. Informed consent to participate was obtained from all participants. Participant data were deidentified and aggregated prior to analysis. All activities, methods and analyses were conducted in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations.

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Subramaniam, R.C., Cox, I. & Onyango, E.A. Participatory One Health network modelling of climate-sensitive Vibrio and antimicrobial resistance risks in the Tasmanian oyster supply chain.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39965-8

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Keywords

  • Climate change and food safety

  • Vibrio
  • Antimicrobial resistance
  • Qualitative network modelling
  • Systems thinking
  • Oysters
  • Supply chain
  • Aquaculture
  • Climate resilience
  • Marine heatwaves
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Source: Ecology - nature.com

Accumulation of eight heavy metals in water chestnut (Trapa natans L.) of four major water bodies of Jammu and Kashmir, India

Evaluating the impact of assisted natural regeneration and afforestation on soil erosion dynamics using high-resolution imagery in semi-arid Ethiopia

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