Abstract
Populus qiongdaoensis is a rare and endemic tree species exclusively located in Hainan Island, China, holding important value for species conservation and ecosystem function. However, its natural populations are threatened by habitat fragmentation and climate change. Based on 42 occurrence records and environmental data, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the species’ suitable habitats, analyze the dominant environmental factors influencing its distribution, and assess changes under future climate scenarios (using the BCC-CSM2-MR model for the 2050s and 2090s under four SSP pathways). The results showed that elevation, mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the most crucial factors affecting its distribution. Currently, the suitable habitats are primarily located in the Bawangling and Wuzhishan mountain regions, covering approximately 9.6% of the island’s area. Under future scenarios, the total suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 7.4% to 34.2% across most projections. However, the area of highly suitable habitat is predicted to decrease notably under the low-emission scenario (SSP126) in the 2050s. Furthermore, the centroid of the species’ distribution is expected to shift northeastward over time, though remaining within the Wuzhishan region. This study delineates priority conservation areas and provides a critical scientific basis for the habitat protection, population restoration, and sustainable management of P. qiongdaoensis under climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
Impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of rare and endangered Cyatheaceae in China: a MaxEnt model-based prediction
Effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of the endangered Hainan gymnure (Neohylomys hainanensis) on Hainan Island
Future of high mountain endemic species under climate change: predicting the potential scenarios for Stellaria pulvinata in the Altai Mountains
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Reprints and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tian, Y., Zhang, T., Li, Q. et al. Predicting the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Populus qiongdaoensis in Hainan Island using MaxEnt modeling.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36841-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-36841-3
Keywords
Populus qiongdaoensis
- MaxEnt
- Suitable habitat
- Environmental factors
- Climate change
Source: Ecology - nature.com
