Abstract
Human activities and climate change threaten ecosystem sustainability, affecting both wildlife and human populations. Integrating climate change knowledge into marine spatial planning (MSP) is necessary to support ecosystem-based, forward-looking ocean management together with adaptation and mitigation actions. By using species distribution models of 72 marine species, we project climate-related effects on the main human uses of the ocean in Portugal (conservation, fisheries, aquaculture, tourism and recreation). Models were fitted with 11 statistical techniques and ensembles were run under two representative climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Models show a drastic loss of habitat suitability across the Portuguese maritime area in the near future (2050 s and 2090 s). Our projections allow for preliminary identification of key areas of interest for MSP in Portugal, from cross-sector risks to opportunities and represent a first assessment of the climate resilience of Portuguese MSP. Future directions to support the implementation of climate-smart MSP in Portugal are suggested.
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Acknowledgements
E.J., C.F.S. and J.B.P thank FCT–Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P., for funding within the scope of projects UIDB/MARE/04292/2025 accredited to MARE and LA/P/0069/2020 https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0069/2020 to ARNET. T.A.M. is partially funded by national funds through FCT, under CEAUL Research Unit, UID/00006/2025 https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/00006/2025.
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Author C.F.S. is Editor-in-Chief (co) of npj Ocean Sustainability. Author C.F.S. was not involved in the journal’s review of, or decisions related to, this manuscript.
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Julien, E., Frazão Santos, C., Marques, T.A. et al. Projecting biodiversity change to support climate-smart ocean planning in Portugal.
npj Ocean Sustain (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-026-00216-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-026-00216-y
Source: Ecology - nature.com
