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Scenario-dependent northward shifts in wintering centroids of Anatidae in South Korea

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Abstract

Climate and land-use change are reshaping the spatial ecology of migratory waterbirds, yet few studies in East Asia have quantitatively integrated ensemble species distribution models, land-cover dynamics, and multi-scenario climate projections to assess future shifts and fragmentation of wintering habitats. We quantified climate-driven changes in the wintering distributions of six rice-paddy–dependent Anatidae species across South Korea using an ensemble species distribution modelling framework integrating nine algorithms. Species occurrence data from GBIF and field surveys (2022–2024) were combined with land-cover, topographic, and bioclimatic variables, with future projections generated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) and four time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100). Across all scenarios, wintering distributions exhibited pronounced northward shifts, reduced spatial overlap with historical hotspots, and increasing habitat fragmentation. The loss of southern wintering grounds—historically critical as climatic refugia during extreme cold events—combined with the rapid expansion of greenhouse-based agriculture threatens the stability of emerging northern habitats. While northward shifts may facilitate adaptation to gradual warming, they also heighten vulnerability to short-term climatic extremes, forcing energetically costly movements to suboptimal sites. These findings underscore the urgency of climate-informed conservation planning.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analysed during the current study are available in the zenodo repository, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17337531.

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Funding

This research was supported by grants from the National Institute of Biological Resource (NIBR), funded by the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea (NIBR202617102).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Life Science, Incheon National University, Incheon, 22021, Republic of Korea

    Han-I Choi

  2. National Institute of Biological Resources, Seo-gu, Incheon, 22689, Republic of Korea

    Han-I Choi, SeonYong Lee & Hyung-Kyu Nam

Authors

  1. Han-I Choi
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  2. SeonYong Lee
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  3. Hyung-Kyu Nam
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Contributions

Conceptualization — H‑I Choi, S Lee, H‑K Nam; Data curation — H‑I Choi; Methodology — H‑I Choi, H‑K Nam; Formal analysis — H‑I Choi; Visualization — H‑I Choi; Writing—original draft — H‑I Choi, H‑K Nam; Writing—review & editing — S Lee, H‑K Nam; Supervision — H‑K Nam.

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Hyung-Kyu Nam.

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Choi, HI., Lee, S. & Nam, HK. Scenario-dependent northward shifts in wintering centroids of Anatidae in South Korea.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-38381-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-38381-2

Keywords

  • Hotspots
  • East-Australasian flyway
  • Fragmentation
  • SSP scenarios
  • Anatidae
  • Korea

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