Abstract
Rockfalls are a destructive geo-hazard in Romania’s steep environments that pose significant material damage and loss of life, even when involving small rock volumes, owing to their high mobility and unpredictability. This study presents the first national-scale assessment of rockfall potential occurrence in Romania, applying a multi-criteria statistical and geospatial analysis based on the Weight of Evidence method. By integrating 1,743 historical rockfall sites and 19 environmental variables as driving factors, we mapped and statistically assessed the potential rockfall distribution of their occurrence across the Carpathian and Subcarpathian regions. Findings reveal that over 18,000 km2 of Romanian territory is suitable for rockfall assessment, while approximately 1,500 km2 face high rockfall occurrence potential. The Southern Carpathians emerged as the most vulnerable area, and all over the Carpathians and Subcarpathians statistical analysis highlighted that topographical and environmental factors are the primary drivers of rockfall distribution. Our model achieved 94% predictive accuracy, confirming the reliability of the resulting potential rockfall occurrence map, as well as its utility as a decision-support tool. These findings provide a robust scientific reference for national and local authorities to mitigate rockfall geohazards, manage rockfall risks and improve infrastructure resilience in Romania.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their highly constructive comments and suggestions that helped improve this paper.
Funding
This work was funded by the EU’s NextGenerationEU instrument through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan of Romania – Pillar III-C9-2022-I8, managed by the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalization, within the project entitled “Complex modelling of multiple land degradation processes in Europe. Towards an integrative scientific framework for sustainable land management across the continent”, contract no. 760051/23.05.2023, code CF 216/29.11.2022.
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Ovreiu, A.B., Niculiţă, M., Prăvălie, R. et al. Spatial modelling of potential rockfall occurrence in Romania using the weight of evidence method.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-58784-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-58784-5
Keywords
- Rockfall
- potential occurrence
- Weight of evidence
- geospatial modelling
- Romania
Source: Ecology - nature.com
