Abstract
Rapid urbanization in tropical megacities intensifies surface warming, yet spatial heat diagnostics frequently lack alignment with administratively actionable adaptation planning. This study develops and validates a regression-informed spatial prioritization framework for vegetation-based climate adaptation using Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, as a case study. Harmonized pixel-level layers of Land Surface Temperature (LST), vegetation deficit, built-up intensity, and population density were derived from multisource satellite and reanalysis datasets and integrated through cross-sectional ordinary least squares regression. Contribution-based and equal redistribution scenarios, combined with threshold relaxation tests, were applied to evaluate prioritization stability. High-LST clusters persistently coincide with dense built-up corridors, and regression results indicate that built-up intensity exhibits the strongest standardized association with surface temperature, while vegetation deficit retains an independent contribution. Priority tiers remain structurally consistent across alternative weighting and threshold configurations, demonstrating robustness of administratively aggregated heat cores. The empirical correspondence between LST and Universal Thermal Climate Index supports the planning relevance of surface-based diagnostics in dense tropical environments. By linking spatial analytics to governance-relevant intervention tiers, the proposed framework bridges the gap between urban heat assessment and phased adaptation planning. The approach offers a transferable model for evidence-informed vegetation-based adaptation in rapidly urbanizing tropical cities.
Similar content being viewed by others
Geospatial analysis of vegetation and land surface temperature for urban heat island mitigation in Hawassa City, Ethiopia
Spatially-optimized urban greening for reduction of population exposure to land surface temperature extremes
A remote sensing-based assessment of the cooling effects of urban trees in European cities
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge technical and institutional support from IPB University (Postgraduate Programm on Natural Resource and Management) and Bappeda DKI Jakarta. This work was conducted under the framework of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Research and Policy Integration Program 2025, coordinated by Gradute School of IPB University and the Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta.
Funding
This research was funded by the Regional Research and Innovation Center (PRID) of the Jakarta Provincial Development Planning Agency (Bappeda) (#39551516).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Supplementary Material 1 (download DOCX )
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Reprints and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Perdinan, Fauzi, R., Fauzi, R.A. et al. Spatial prioritization of vegetation-based climate adaptation pathways in tropical megacity Jakarta, Indonesia.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-50579-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-50579-y
Source: Ecology - nature.com
