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Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon emissions induced by land-use change and their implications for climate resilience in West African drylands

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Abstract

Understanding the effects of land-use and land-cover change (LULC) on carbon emissions is crucial for ensuring the sustainable management of dryland ecosystems. This study investigates spatial and temporal changes in carbon stock associated with LULC in one of the key biodiversity hotspots of the West African drylands. The study uses a Landsat imagery dataset spanning 2000, 2010, and 2022, processed in Google Earth Engine using a random forest algorithm. LULC-induced changes in carbon stock are estimated using ecosystem-specific emission factors for the designated study area. Additionally, integrating NDVI and climate stressors enables the projection of vegetation productivity and future carbon trajectories. The findings indicate a substantial decline in wooded savanna (~ 21%), tree savanna (7%), and shrub savanna (5%), alongside a ~ 35% increase in cropland. These transitions generated an estimated 300,000 MgC of carbon stock changes between 2000 and 2022. Climate projections under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate continued warming and reductions in annual rainfall of 5.414 mm and 9.359 mm, respectively, leading to additional carbon increases of ~ 1.3 MgC/ha and ~ 2 MgC/ha by 2070. These combined pressures accentuate land degradation and climate feedbacks. It emphasizes the need for integrated strategies to enhance climate resilience in West African dryland ecosystems in line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 15).

Data availability

The data used in this study are freely accessible on the United Geological Survey (USGS), via Google Earth Engine data catalogue ([https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/landsat](https:/developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/landsat)) for satellite data. The high-resolution climatologies for Earth’s land surface (CHELSA) ([https://chelsa-climate.org/downloads/](https:/chelsa-climate.org/downloads)), accessed on 22 November 2025, for climate data.

Code availability

The Google Earth Engine scripts and R code used for data extraction, processing, and analysis in this study are provided as supplementary files. These scripts include all steps necessary to reproduce the figures and results presented in the manuscript. In addition, the processed data used for analysis are provided in CSV format within the supplementary files.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Partnership for Skills in Applied Sciences, Engineering, and Technology (PASET) Regional Scholarship Innovation Funds (RSIF), which supports our PhD research. We are grateful to PASET-RSIF for funding the PhD study. We are also thankful to the Natural Resources Institute (NRI) at the University of Greenwich, UK, for their support and guidance during our internship. We also thank Haramaya University for the opportunity to collaborate.

Funding

No funding was obtained for this research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Africa Center of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation (ACE Climate-SABC) , Haramaya University , P.O.Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Issaka Abdou Razakou Kiribou

  2. Département des Eaux, Forêts et Environnement, Institut des Sciences de l’Environnement et du Développement Rural (ISEDR), Université Daniel Ouezzin Coulibaly, BP 176, Dédougou, Burkina Faso

    Kangbéni Dimobe

  3. Africa Disaster Risk Financing Programme, African Development Bank Group, Avenue Jean-Paul II 01, BP 1387, Abidjan 01, Côte d’Ivoire

    Tiga Neya

  4. International Center for Tropical Agriculture , P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Sintayehu W. Dejene

  5. Institute of Geophysics , Space Science and Astronomy Addis Ababa University , P.O. Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Sintayehu W. Dejene

Authors

  1. Issaka Abdou Razakou Kiribou
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  2. Kangbéni Dimobe
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  3. Tiga Neya
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  4. Sintayehu W. Dejene
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Contributions

Issaka Abdou Razakou KIRIBOU wrote the main manuscript text, conceptualization, developed the methodology, data curation, software, and reviewed and edited. Kangbéni Dimobe reviewed and edited, supervised. Tiga Neya reviewed and edited. Sintayehu W. Dejene reviewed and edited, supervised.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to
Issaka Abdou Razakou Kiribou.

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Kiribou, I.A.R., Dimobe, K., Neya, T. et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon emissions induced by land-use change and their implications for climate resilience in West African drylands.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47031-6

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