Abstract
Acropora cervicornis and Acropora palmata have long provided structural complexity to Caribbean reefs, yet they have declined by over 90% in recent decades. Identifying places where wild populations of at-risk corals can survive remains essential for conservation. Coral Gardens, Belize, has historically been a refugium for endangered Acropora spp., but mass mortality transpired in 2023. This study aimed to determine whether coral loss at a small long-term field monitoring site was representative of regional trends. We developed a supervised Random Tree classification model to identify the spectral signature of Acropora spp. in satellite images and predict live coral cover across 25 km² from 2011 to 2023 to compare with field data from 2012 to 2025. Model data predicted a drop in live Acropora spp. of over 90% from 2011 to 2023 coincident with total loss at the field site. Field validation of the model became a search for survivors in June 2025. Live or recently dead Acropora spp. were found at 28 of 42 predicted sites, and live colonies were found at 16 previously undocumented locations. This methodology provides a tool for monitoring shallow-water Acropora spp. and locating survivors. Our findings underscore the vulnerability of even persistent coral refugia.
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Acknowledgements
We wish to thank Daymon Lujan for contributions to satellite data processing and Narciso Valdez for expert guidance and help in the field over the course of this study, as well as the Hol Chan Marine Reserve and Belize Marine Fisheries Department for permissions and permits for this work. The Keck Geology Consortium provided funding for this project via grant #NSF EAR 1659322 and #NSF EAR 2050697. We thank Lisa Carne and the non-profit organization Fragments of Hope, and all those undergraduate students who have helped support this project from its inception for their invaluable work.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Keck Geology Consortium grant #NSF EAR 1659322 and #NSF EAR 2050697. The funding agents had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, or preparation of the manuscript.
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Greer, L., Das, R., Foad, H. et al. Supervised satellite classification and field validation document endangered Acropora collapse, and identify surviving colonies in Belize.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47081-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47081-w
Keywords
- Coral
- Belize
Acropora
- Remote sensing
- Refugium
- Conservation
Source: Ecology - nature.com
