Abstract
The Somali upwelling is the strongest upwelling region globally during its seasonal peak. The intense productivity that occurs during the southwest monsoon (May-September) sustains artisanal and industrial fisheries. However, due to its complex structure and seasonality, and the typically coarse spatial resolution of global climate models, understanding its future fate remains a challenge. Using a high-resolution future climate projection and a size-spectrum model (in the absence of reliable fish catch data), we identify key climate stressors and projected changes in higher trophic levels to understand potential future impacts on Somali fisheries. Overall, the productivity generated by the Somali upwelling is projected to decline by the end of the century. Our results show that the inner coastal zone may experience elevated productivity, potentially due to changes in the prevailing winds and Somali Current. This may indicate potential climate refugia and minimal impacts to the artisanal fishing fleet. However, further offshore in the Great Whirl region dominated by small pelagic fish, there is a projected decline in productivity and biomass, which may impact the industrial fishing fleets that may target this area in future. To overcome challenges in understanding the fate of global upwelling systems, high-resolution models must be employed to more accurately simulate individual systems.
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Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) under NERC grant NE/P021050/1 in the framework of the SOLSTICE-WIO project (https://www.solstice-wio.org/) as well as the UK National Capability project FOCUS (NE/X006271/1).CAB was supported by Natural Environment Research Council grant BRICS (NE/X00855X/1), a contribution to the UK BIO‐Carbon project. The simulations underpinning this work were produced by the Regional Ocean Acidification Modelling project (ROAM; NE/H017372/1) and were performed using the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service (http://www.archer.ac.uk). The authors are grateful to Helen Snaith and BODC colleagues for assistance with model output retrieval.
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See Figure 9.
Reconstructed catch data segregated by species averaged over the Somali EEZ with the respective reliability score indicated beneath the time series. This data is retrieved from the Sea Around Us at https://www.seaaroundus.org/data/#/eez/706?chart=catch-chart&dimension=taxon&measure=tonnage&limit=10.
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Jacobs, Z.L., Jebri, F., Bruggeman, J. et al. The future fate of Somali upwelling productivity and the implications for fisheries under climate change.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-55455-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-55455-3
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