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Tropical cyclones impact the dispersal of a globally invasive moth pest

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Abstract

Wind patterns are a crucial factor for migratory insect pests. However, the impact of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones (TCs), on migratory pest dynamics remains unclear. Here, we combined long-term trapping data with climatic variables and hydrogen stable isotope analysis to investigate how TCs influence the population dynamics of a globally invasive moth pest, fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda), across the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico. TCs significantly increased fall armyworm moth abundance, shifting their peak activity across years. Most moths originated from southeastern Florida and the Caribbean, resulting in a 54% increase in migratory moths during the TC season. These findings reveal a previously unquantified link between extreme weather events (TCs) and migratory pest outbreaks. As TCs intensify, fall armyworm migration patterns may become increasingly unpredictable, posing greater challenges for pest management and agricultural sustainability.

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Data availability

All data and code are available in the supplementary materials and/or have been archived on Figshare (Calixto and Paula-Moraes98, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.31169626).

Code availability

The codes and packages used for data processing with standard software R described in “Methods” section, and analysis and results are also available under release Version 2 2026-01-28, 08:30 at Figshare (Calixto and Paula-Moraes98, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.31169626).

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Acknowledgements

We thank the members of the Entomology lab at the West Florida Research and Education Center, UF, for their assistance with insect collection and preparation, and Jason Curtis, from the Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, for conducting the hydrogen isotope analysis. This research was partially funded by Cotton Inc., and by National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Florida Hatch project and Multistate Group NC246 – Ecology and Management of Arthropods in Corn.

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  1. Department of Entomology and Nematology, WFREC, University of Florida, Jay, FL, USA

    Eduardo S. Calixto

  2. Department of Entomology, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA

    Silvana V. Paula-Moraes

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  1. Eduardo S. Calixto
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Conceptualization: E.C. and S.P.-M. Methodology: E.C. and S.P.-M. Data collection: E.C. and S.P.-M. Formal analysis: E.C. Funding acquisition: S.P.-M. Supervision: S.P.-M. Visualization: E.C. Writing–original draft: E.C. Writing—review and editing: E.C. and S.P.-M.

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Calixto, E.S., Paula-Moraes, S.V. Tropical cyclones impact the dispersal of a globally invasive moth pest.
Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03328-y

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