Abstract
As a critical ecological barrier in eastern China, the Huai River urban agglomeration (HRUA) necessitates research on the spatiotemporal dynamics, drivers, and future scenarios of Habitat Quality (HQ). This study established an integrated “Scenario Simulation-HQ Assessment-Dual perspective Factor Analysis” framework. We integrated Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) with explainable machine learning to explore the influencing factors, as these two methods are highly complementary. Key findings indicate: (1) The area with median-or-higher HQ decreased by 3% (2000–2020). Multi-scenario simulations (MS) project the 2035 Urban Development Scenario (UDS) will cause the most severe HQ degradation. HQ’s overall spatial pattern remained stable, with persistent, significant hot spot clustering and strong habitat resilience in the southwest. (2) Elevation, NDVI, slope, and population density were key factors influencing HQ spatial differentiation, showing significant effect heterogeneity. (3) Urban expansion and cropland loss were the primary land-use drivers of HQ degradation, jointly accounting for 85.7% of land-use change impact and exhibiting a significant synergistic effect. The research framework provides practical value for exploring the changes of HQ in the HRUA, exploring the influencing factors of HQ from multiple perspectives, and carrying out zoning planning.
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Abbreviations
- HRUA:
Huai river urban agglomeration
- UDS:
Urban development scenario
- NDS:
Natural development scenario
- FPS:
Cultivated land protection scenario
- HQ:
Habitat quality
- COL:
Construction land
- CUL:
Cultivated land
- GL:
Grassland
- FL:
Forest land
- WA:
Water area
- UL:
Unused land
- PP:
Population density
- DR:
Distance from primary rivers
- TE:
Average annual temperature
- DRO:
Distance from primary roads
- SI:
Silt content
- MGWR:
Multiscale geographically weighted regression
Funding
This work was funded by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Science and Technology Partnership and International S&T Cooperation Program (2023E01022), the Province Science Research Project of Anhui Colleges (2022AH051300; 2024AH052998), the Doctoral Foundation of Fuyang Normal University (2023KYQD0046; 2023KYQD0017), the Natural Resources Science and Technology Project of Anhui Province (2023-K-11), Anhui Province University Philosophy and Social Sciences Research (2023AH050386), and the Innovation Research Plan Project for Master’s Students of Fuyang Normal University (23210608).
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Cheng, J., Hu, W., Zheng, M. et al. Urban expansion and cropland loss drive habitat quality decline in the Huai River Urban agglomeration.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-57079-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-57079-z
Keywords
- Habitat quality
- Multi-scenario simulation
- Machine learning
- Factor analysis
- Spatial heterogeneity
- Huai river
Source: Ecology - nature.com
