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Vegetation type conversion in Northeast China under permafrost change

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Abstract

Permafrost and vegetation are intricately linked in their dynamics, serving as key components of cold-region ecosystems and influenced by climate variability and human activities. To investigate the spatiotemporal relationships between vegetation type conversion and permafrost change, an observational study was conducted in Northeast China from 2000 to 2024 based on geospatial data. This study quantified the frequency of changes in permafrost stability type (FCT) and assessed the development trend of permafrost stability, calculated the comprehensive and single vegetation type dynamic ratios (CV and SV ). Results show that CV and FCT exhibit a synchronous upward trend, with a strong linear relationship (R2 = 0.9532). CV is most pronounced in zones where permafrost development is strengthened, reaching 15.88%. Within the study area, 67.47% of the permafrost has undergone at least one change in stability type, with the FCT = 2 being the predominant type. The conversion from grassland to cropland and deciduous broad-leaved forest (DBF) is the main path. Grassland experienced the largest net area loss (7556.94 km2), while cropland and DBF increased by 2965.46 km2 and 4534.01 km2 respectively, being the vegetation types with the largest net increase. This work will contribute to informing ecosystem management and policy-making in cold regions under climate change.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29626016 (ref.106). The sensitivity analysis results for conversion pathways are provided as Supplementary Data 1. Additional information is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41641024), the Science and the Technology Project of Heilongjiang Communications Investment Group (Grant No.JT-100000-ZC-FW-2021-0182), the Field scientific observation and research station of the Ministry of Education-Geological environment system of permafrost area in Northeast China (MEORS-PGSNEC), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.2572025AW19). Sincere thanks also go to all anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments and suggestions.

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  1. These authors contributed equally: Shuhan Zhou, Ying Guo.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China

    Shuhan Zhou, Ying Guo, Shuai Liu, Lisha Qiu, Chengcheng Zhang, Haiwen Xia & Wei Shan

  2. Ministry of Education Observation and Research Station of Permafrost Geo-Environment System in Northeast China, Harbin, China

    Ying Guo, Lisha Qiu, Chengcheng Zhang & Wei Shan

  3. Collaborative Innovation Centre for Permafrost Environment and Road Construction and Maintenance in Northeast China, Harbin, China

    Ying Guo, Lisha Qiu, Chengcheng Zhang & Wei Shan

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  1. Shuhan Zhou
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  5. Chengcheng Zhang
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Contributions

These authors contributed equally: S.Z. and Y.G. S.Z., Y.G., S.L. and L.Q. designed and developed the experiments. S.Z. and S.L. performed the main experiments and drafted the paper. S.Z., Y.G. and H.X. performed the statistical analysis. L.Q., C.Z. and W.S. mentored the project and edited the paper. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the paper.

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Wei Shan.

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Communications Biology thanks Yao Jiang and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: Man Qi and Christina Karlsson Rosenthal. A peer review file is available.

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Zhou, S., Guo, Y., Liu, S. et al. Vegetation type conversion in Northeast China under permafrost change.
Commun Biol (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-026-10046-w

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