Abstract
Fluoride contamination poses a significant global environmental and public health challenge. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of fluoride levels in the surface waters of Jinhua, China, utilizing a unique 24-year monitoring dataset (2001–2024) and a multi-faceted methodological framework. This framework integrated ecological and human health risk assessments with short-term forecasting via a hybrid ARIMA-Holt-Winters model. The multi-year mean fluoride concentration was 0.641 mg/L, 1.68-fold the regional background level but below the national drinking water standard (1.0 mg/L). Pronounced spatial and seasonal variations were observed, with downstream concentrations 137–320% higher than upstream, and dry-season levels elevated by 19.8–24.1%. Ecological risk was generally low (median risk quotient = 0.30). Health risk assessment identified children as the most vulnerable group; a pivotal shift in water source function in 2016 reduced their median hazard quotient(HQ) by approximately 97.0%. Forecasts for 2025–2029 indicate a marginal concentration increase, with risks remaining manageable. This study underscores the efficacy of source-water management and provides a transferable framework for proactive fluoride mitigation in industrial-urban regions.
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Funding
This research was supported by the Jinhua Municipal Association for Science and Technology Academic Research Project (Grant No. 2024-04) and the Jinhua Municipal Public Welfare Technology Application Research Project (Grant No. 2025-4-176).
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Lang, H., Huang, Y. & Xu, Y. A 24-year integrated assessment of fluoride in surface waters of Jinhua, China: spatiotemporal distribution, risk dynamics, and future projections.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-50957-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-50957-6
Keywords
- Jinhua basin
- Fluoride contamination
- Long-term monitoring
- Ecological risk assessment
- Health risk assessment
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