Abstract
Lithium is necessary for low-carbon technologies that combat climate change, but lithium extraction is water-intensive. Changes in temperature and precipitation arising from climate change are altering water distribution, which could further strain supplies for new mines and industry, farms, and households. Here we explored how climate change, water use, and mining siting could impact lithium mining in the United States. We analyzed whether there would be sufficient water available to support the single existing and 22 proposed U.S. lithium mines at mid-century under four socioeconomic-climate scenarios and five climate models. Though dependent on socioeconomic-climate scenario, climate model, and lithium deposit type, available water supply in most subbasins would likely be unable to support new mines’ water demands, or even non-mining water demands from other sectors. Water scarcity could hinder the ability of the United States to produce enough lithium to meet domestic demand thereby necessitating higher imports.
Acknowledgements
The authors extend their deepest appreciation to Dr. Peter Caldwell and Prof. Travis Warziniack for their invaluable help understanding and using the Water Supply Stress Index Model and the freshwater projections, respectively. The work by J.N.T was done while serving as a Pathways Student Intern with the U.S. Geological Survey. N.T.N is a full-time government employee for the U.S. Geological Survey. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Funding
J.N.T acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship. J.B.D acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation Office of International Science and Engineering (NSF OISE-2330041).
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Trost, J.N., Nassar, N.T. & Dunn, J.B. Future water constraints on United States lithium mining under climate change.
Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03643-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03643-4
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