Abstract
Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are key drivers of precipitation variability and extremes, yet their contribution to long-term precipitation trends remains poorly constrained. Using multiple AR detection algorithms combined with high-resolution precipitation data, we assess spatiotemporal variations in AR frequency and associated precipitation. We find that ARs account for up to 70–90% of interannual precipitation variability in the mid-latitudes. We also identify statistically significant increases in the annual frequency of ARs and the precipitation they produce. These trends are particularly strong in the eastern United States, central Brazil, western Africa, and southern Australia, and often more pronounced than the trends in total annual precipitation. Crucially, we find an intensification of AR-driven extreme precipitation events, indicating that the most impactful storms are becoming more frequent and severe due to ARs. Our findings underscore an increasing risk of AR-related hydrometeorological hazards, with implications for water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.
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Computational resources were provided by the Research Computing Portal, University of Melbourne. No funding was received for this research.
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Pradhan, S., Wasko, C. & Peel, M.C. Global trends in atmospheric river-induced precipitation.
npj Nat. Hazards (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00231-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00231-6
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