Abstract
Climate adaptation must be intensified globally to keep up with increasing climate change impacts. To date, adaptation is mostly driven by climate risks that need to be reduced and little by opportunities. We identify opportunity windows -i.e. favourable conditions for new or upgraded measures- by constructing an evidence-based dataset from qualitative and quantitative sources, and discuss how they can help to progress adaptation. Here we find evidence of past, present and future adaptation opportunity windows throughout Europe. Present and past triggers for opportunity windows include the implementation of European Union Directives and post-disaster recovery funds, and societal support after floods, droughts and wildfires. Future opportunities relate to aging dams and storm surge barriers. Opportunities also emerge from innovations (e.g. through pilots) which could inform new forms of adaptation. Decision-makers can operationalise and seize adaptation opportunities through adaptive pathways planning, but would need to anticipate opening and closing windows.
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Meta-analytical evidence of a self–other discrepancy in climate change-related risk perceptions
Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development
Data availability
All data and calculations are presented either in Supplementary Material 1, or the two Online datasets. The two online datasets are publicly available in Figshare and can be accessed through the following link: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.31249858 Part of this research incorporates data from the GRanD database (http://globaldamwatch.org/) which is © Global Water System Project (2011).
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Acknowledgements
V.D.F., M.H. and K.D.B. have been supported in this research by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme as part of the Pathways2Resilience project (101093942). A.P. has contributed to this research as part of her studies at the University of Bonn and the United Nations University-Institute for Environment and Human Security. The authors wish to acknowledge I. van den Broek for codesigning the figures. Part of this research incorporates data from the GRanD database (http://globaldamwatch.org/), which is © Global Water System Project (2011).
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V.D.F., M.H., H.M. and B.v.d.H conceptualised the study. V.D.F., A.K.P. carried out the data collection and analysis. V.D.F., H.M., A.K.P., K.d.B., B.v.d.H. and M.H. all contributed to the interpretation of results and both writing and editing of the manuscript.
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Di Fant, V., Middelkoop, H., de Bruin, K. et al. Opportunity windows accelerate action and expand options for climate adaptation in Europe.
Commun Earth Environ (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03332-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03332-2
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