in Resources

Synergistic pathways to mitigate climate and water scarcity risks

137 Views


Abstract

Energy security, climate change and water scarcity are inextricably linked challenges that require integrated solutions for sustainable development. A promising approach combining carbon capture and storage (CCS) with enhanced water recovery (EWR), termed CCS–EWR, provides a technically and economically viable solution to the energy–carbon–water dilemma. By developing a high-resolution source–sink matching model for coal-fired power plants in China, we found that retrofitting plants with a total capacity of 567.4 GW with CCS could store 1.6 GtCO2 in 2030. Associated water extraction from EWR is expected to increase from 1.7 Gt (1.5–1.9 Gt) in 2030 to 3.3 Gt (2.9–3.7 Gt) in 2060, equivalent to 79.2% (68.1–90.4%) and 154.1% (136.3–172.0%) of the current industrial water shortage in China. Cumulative water extraction reaches 94.6 Gt (83.0–106.3 Gt) during 2025–2060, with a net increase in blue water extraction of 54.6 Gt (33.3–76.0 Gt) after accounting for additional water requirements with CCS. In 2030, there will be 0.48 Gt of blue water extracted in water-scarce regions through CO2 sequestration from water-abundant regions. With maximum cumulative profits of CCS–EWR expected to be US$370.8 million per year, this approach highlights the transferable framework for assessing energy–carbon–water synergy in regions where energy security, carbon mitigation and water scarcity concerns intersect with geological storage potential.

Access through your institution

Buy or subscribe

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access through your institution

Buy this article

  • Purchase on SpringerLink
  • Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Conceptual framework of energy–carbon–water synergy for the power system.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
Fig. 2: Variations in water extraction and consumption of CCS–EWR during 2025–2060.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
Fig. 3: Redistribution of water resources with the CCS–EWR approach, based on a high-resolution CCS source–sink matching model.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
Fig. 4: Economic feasibility of EWR.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.
Fig. 5: Costs of deep saline water desalination technologies and typical water diversion projects around the world.
The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

Similar content being viewed by others

Agricultural crop trade alleviates China’s water shortage but redistributes water value unevenly

Article
Open access
02 June 2026

Pathways to a net-zero-carbon water sector through energy-extracting wastewater technologies

Article
Open access
26 September 2022

Carbon restoration potential on global land under water resource constraints

Article

24 October 2024

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study have been made publicly available. The details of the databases and data sources used in this study are provided in Supplementary Information. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The code used in this study is available with this paper. The details of the model code and source information are provided in Supplementary Information.

References

  1. Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan (UNFCCC, 2022).

  2. Fan, J.-L. et al. Co-firing plants with retrofitted carbon capture and storage for power-sector emissions mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 13, 807–815 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  3. CO2 Emissions in 2023 (International Energy Agency, 2023).

  4. CCUS in Clean Energy Transitions (International Energy Agency, 2020).

  5. IPCC Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Shukla, P. R. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2022).

  6. How Carbon Capture Technologies Support the Power Transition (International Energy Agency, 2020).

  7. Rogelj, J. et al. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 325–332 (2018).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  8. Lv, H. et al. Water resource synergy management in response to climate change in China: from the perspective of urban metabolism. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 163, 105095 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  9. Keyßer, L. T. & Lenzen, M. 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways. Nat. Commun. 12, 2676 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  10. Qin, Y. et al. Global assessment of the carbon–water tradeoff of dry cooling for thermal power generation. Nat. Water 1, 682–693 (2023).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  11. Niazi, H. et al. Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals. Nat. Sustain. 7, 413–422 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  12. Zhang, C., Zhong, L. & Wang, J. Decoupling between water use and thermoelectric power generation growth in China. Nat. Energy 3, 792–799 (2018).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  13. Webster, M., Donohoo, P. & Palmintier, B. Water–CO2 trade-offs in electricity generation planning. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 1029–1032 (2013).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  14. van Vliet, M. T. H., Wiberg, D., Leduc, S. & Riahi, K. Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 375–380 (2016).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  15. Liao, X. W., Hall, J. W., Hanasaki, N., Lim, W. H. & Paltan, H. Water shortage risks for China’s coal power plants under climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 044011 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  16. Wei, Y. et al. A proposed global layout of carbon capture and storage in line with a 2 °C climate target. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 112–118 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  17. Fan, J.-L. et al. A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage. Nat. Commun. 14, 5972 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  18. Wang, P. et al. CCUS development in China and forecast its contribution to emission reduction. Sci. Rep. 13, 17811 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  19. Liu, Z. et al. Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. 3, 141–155 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  20. Li, K. et al. A national-scale high-resolution CCUS-shared pipeline layout for retrofitting multisectoral plants via onshore–offshore geological storage. iScience https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.110978 (2024).

  21. Yang, L., Lv, H., Wei, N., Li, Y. & Zhang, X. Dynamic optimization of carbon capture technology deployment targeting carbon neutrality, cost efficiency and water stress: evidence from China’s electric power sector. Energy Econ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106871 (2023).

  22. Yang, L., Wei, N., Lv, H. & Zhang, X. Optimal deployment for carbon capture enables more than half of China’s coal-fired power plant to achieve low-carbon transformation. iScience 25, 105664 (2022).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  23. Liu, X. et al. Achieving carbon neutrality enables China to attain its industrial water-use target. One Earth 5, 188–200 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  24. Nouri, N., Balali, F., Nasiri, A., Seifoddini, H. & Otieno, W. Water withdrawal and consumption reduction for electrical energy generation systems. Appl. Energy 248, 196–206 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  25. Addassi, M. et al. Assessing the potential of solubility trapping in unconfined aquifers for subsurface carbon storage. Sci. Rep. 12, 20452 (2022).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  26. Rathnaweera, T. D., Ranjith, P. G. & Perera, M. S. A. Experimental investigation of geochemical and mineralogical effects of CO2 sequestration on flow characteristics of reservoir rock in deep saline aquifers. Sci. Rep. 6, 19362 (2016).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  27. Scott, V., Gilfillan, S., Markusson, N., Chalmers, H. & Haszeldine, R. S. Last chance for carbon capture and storage. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 105–111 (2013).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  28. Menon, A. K. Distributed desalination using renewable energy: a paradigm shift toward affordable and sustainable clean water. One Earth 7, 355–358 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  29. Lv, H. et al. Water availability may not restrict the implementation of carbon capture utilization and storage technology: evidence from China’s electric power sector. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 209, 107779 (2024).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  30. Graham, N. T. et al. Future changes in the trading of virtual water. Nat. Commun. 11, 3632 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  31. Wei, N. et al. Decarbonizing the coal-fired power sector in China via carbon capture, geological utilization, and storage technology. Environ. Sci. Technol. 55, 13164–13173 (2021).

    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  32. Joseph, N. et al. Estimation of industrial water demand in India using census-based statistical data. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 149, 31–44 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  33. Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China Chinese Water Resources Bulletin 2023 (China Water-Power Press, 2024).

  34. National Bureau of Statistics China Statistical Yearbook 2024 (China Statistics Press, 2024).

  35. National Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Environmental Protection China Statistical Yearbook on Environment 2024 (China Statistics Press, 2024).

  36. Tan, Z., Huang, H. & Lin, B. Impact assessment of the residual lifespan of coal-fired power plants on the investment risk of carbon capture and storage retrofit. Energy 307, 132695 (2024).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  37. Davenport, D. M., Deshmukh, A., Werber, J. R. & Elimelech, M. High-pressure reverse osmosis for energy-efficient hypersaline brine desalination: current status, design considerations, and research needs. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. 5, 467–475 (2018).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  38. Li, Q. & Wei, Y. Progress in combination of CO2 geological storage and deep saline water recovery (in Chinese). Sci. Technol. Rev. 31, 65–70 (2013).

    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  39. Elimelech, M. & Phillip, W. A. The future of seawater desalination: energy, technology, and the environment. Science 333, 712–717 (2011).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  40. Alnajdi, S. et al. Practical minimum energy use of seawater reverse osmosis. Joule 8, 3088–3105 (2024).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  41. Herber, G. Understanding the Expenses of Reverse Osmosis Plants (SALINCX (Innovative Desalination Plants), 2024).

  42. Rodríguez-López, J., Robles-Lizárraga, A., Encinas-Guzmán, M. I., Correa-Díaz, F. & Dévora-Isiordia, G. E. Assessment of fixed, single-axis, and dual-axis photovoltaic systems applied to a reverse osmosis desalination process in northwest Mexico. Desalin. Water Treat. 234, 399–407 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  43. Hilal, N., Kim, G. J. & Somerfield, C. Boron removal from saline water: a comprehensive review. Desalination 273, 23–35 (2011).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  44. Patel, S. K., Biesheuvel, P. M. & Elimelech, M. Energy consumption of brackish water desalination: identifying the sweet spots for electrodialysis and reverse osmosis. ACS ES T Eng. 1, 851–864 (2021).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  45. An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China (International Energy Agency, 2021).

  46. Parry, I., Black, S. & Roaf, J. Proposal for an International Carbon Price Floor Among Large Emitters IMF Staff Climate Notes 2021/001 (International Monetary Fund, 2021).

  47. Zhang, X., Yang, X. & Lu, X. CCUS Progress in China—A Status Report (ACCA21, GCCSI, Tsinghua Univ., 2023).

  48. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (International Energy Agency, 2024).

  49. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024 (World Bank Group, 2024).

  50. Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Carbon Management (US Department of Energy, 2023).

  51. Edianto, A., Trencher, G., Manych, N. & Matsubae, K. Forecasting coal power plant retirement ages and lock-in with random forest regression. Patterns 4, 100776 (2023).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  52. Huang, Y.-H. & Wu, J.-H. Bottom-up analysis of energy efficiency improvement and CO2 emission reduction potentials in the cement industry for energy transition: an application of extended marginal abatement cost curves. J. Clean. Prod. 296, 126619 (2021).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  53. Office of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project Construction Committee, S. C., PRC. The South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Engineering 2, 265–267 (2016).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  54. Overall Layout of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (State Council of the People’s Republic of China, 2006); www.gov.cn

  55. Judd, S. J. Membrane technology costs and me. Water Res. 122, 1–9 (2017).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  56. Khan, S. U.-D. et al. Development and techno-economic analysis of small modular nuclear reactor and desalination system across Middle East and North Africa region. Desalination 406, 51–59 (2017).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  57. Chauvy, R., Lai, Y.-Y. & Chen, P.-C. A geographical source–sink matching for carbon capture and utilization deployment in Taiwan. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control 119, 103722 (2022).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  58. Fang, H., Gu, C., Ye, K. & Yu, S. Study on CCS source–sink matching and its cluster deployment in multi-type geological bodies in Anhui Province of China. Sci. Rep. 15, 9080 (2025).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  59. Nie, S. et al. Economic costs and environmental benefits of deploying CCUS supply chains at scale: insights from the source–sink matching LCA–MILP approach. Fuel 344, 128047 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  60. Zhao, X. et al. Revealing trade potential for reversing regional freshwater boundary exceedance. Environ. Sci. Technol. 57, 11520–11530 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  61. Wei, N., Li, X., Jiao, Z., Liu, S. & Dahowski, R. Data on potential of CO2 capture and enhanced water recovery projects in modern coal chemical industries in China. Data Brief 23, 103810 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  62. Wei, N., Li, X., Liu, S., Lu, S. & Jiao, Z. A strategic framework for commercialization of carbon capture, geological utilization, and storage technology in China. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control 110, 103420 (2021).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  63. Yang, L. et al. Whether CCS technologies will exacerbate the water crisis in China? A full life-cycle analysis. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 134, 110374 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  64. Buscheck, T. A. et al. Active CO2 reservoir management for carbon storage: analysis of operational strategies to relieve pressure buildup and improve injectivity. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control 6, 230–245 (2012).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  65. Wang, P. & Chung, T.-S. A conceptual demonstration of freeze desalination–membrane distillation (FD–MD) hybrid desalination process utilizing liquefied natural gas (LNG) cold energy. Water Res. 46, 4037–4052 (2012).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  66. Bourcier, W. L. et al. A preliminary cost and engineering estimate for desalinating produced formation water associated with carbon dioxide capture and storage. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control 5, 1319–1328 (2011).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  67. Shokri, A. & Sanavi Fard, M. Techno-economic assessment of water desalination: future outlooks and challenges. Process Saf. Environ. Prot. 169, 564–578 (2023).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  68. Wei, N., Li, X., Wang, Q. & Gao, S. Budget-type techno-economic model for onshore CO2 pipeline transportation in China. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control 51, 176–192 (2016).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  69. Wang, F., Wang, P. & Xu, M. Sustainable or not for water consumption after implementing CCS in China’s coal-fired power plants for achieving 2 °C target. Water 15, 1167 (2023).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  70. Liu, J. et al. Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future. Earth’s Future 5, 545–559 (2017).

    Article 

    Google Scholar 

  71. Kummu, M. et al. The world’s road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability. Sci. Rep. 6, 38495 (2016).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

  72. Schewe, J. et al. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3245–3250 (2014).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the contributions of X. Zhao, M. Xu, X. Shen and Y. Qin to the data collection and analysis discussion.

Funding

X.Z. discloses support for this research from the National Program for Support of Top-Notch Young Professionals. H.L. discloses support for this research from the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by the Beijing Association for Science and Technology (BYESS2023234) and from the Fundamental Research Funds for Beijing Municipal Universities (2025JKZX26). J.L. discloses support for this research from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 72503114). K.L., J.F., J.M. and K.H. declare no relevant funding.

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Haodong Lv, Jizhe Li.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Administrative Centre for China’s Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing, China

    Haodong Lv, Jizhe Li & Xian Zhang

  2. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Haodong Lv

  3. Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Jizhe Li

  4. Centre for Sustainable Development and Energy Policy Research, School of Energy and Mining Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, China

    Kai Li & Jingli Fan

  5. State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, China

    Kai Li & Jingli Fan

  6. Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK

    Jing Meng

  7. Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands

    Klaus Hubacek

Authors

  1. Haodong Lv
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jizhe Li
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kai Li
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jingli Fan
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Jing Meng
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Klaus Hubacek
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Xian Zhang
    View author publications

    Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

X.Z. and H.L. designed the research. J.L. led the analysis and visualized the results. J.L. drafted the paper. X.Z., H.L., K.L. and J.F. provided the data and performed the source–sink matching model. J.M. and K.H. contributed to the discussions. All authors contributed to the paper revision.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to
Xian Zhang.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information

Nature Sustainability thanks Jeffrey Bielicki, Jay Fuhrman and Alena Lohrmann for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information (download PDF )

Supplementary Figs. 1–13, Tables 1–7 and Notes 1–9.

Reporting Summary (download PDF )

Supplementary Data 1 (download XLSX )

The total number of CFPPs eligible for CCS retrofits and their corresponding total installed capacity across provinces.

Source data

Source Data Fig. 2 (download XLSX )

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 3 (download XLSX )

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 4 (download XLSX )

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 5 (download XLSX )

Statistical source data.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lv, H., Li, J., Li, K. et al. Synergistic pathways to mitigate climate and water scarcity risks.
Nat Sustain (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01880-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Version of record:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01880-1

Source: Resources - nature.com

Seed and soil provenance in the production and survival of Melanoxylum brauna seedlings

Climate change drives ecological novelty and new social challenges