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Occurrence, environmental correlates, and risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Caspian sea coastal waters

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Abstract

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) poses a significant public health concern in marine environments. This study evaluated the occurrence and health risk of Vp in coastal waters of the southern Caspian Sea during summer 2022 using the WHO-recommended QMRA framework. Forty-eight seawater samples collected from two beaches in Guilan Province revealed Vp concentrations ranging from 1.9 × 10⁵ to 5.0 × 10⁵ CFU L⁻¹. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to quantify uncertainty, showing higher median probabilities of illness (Pill) at Beach B (children: 9.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 3.7–5.8 × 10⁻³) than at Beach A (children: 5.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 2.0–3.4 × 10⁻³), all below the US. EPA threshold (0.036). The estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) exceeded the WHO reference level (10⁻⁶ pppy) but remained below the US. EPA benchmark (10⁻⁴ pppy), indicating a low but non-negligible health burden, particularly among children. In addition, statistical analysis revealed positive correlations between Vp and salinity, temperature, and turbidity, and a negative correlation with pH. Sensitivity analysis revealed that Vp concentration was the dominant factor at Beach A, while ingested water volume had the greatest influence at Beach B. These results support targeted management measures to mitigate microbial risks in recreational waters.

Data availability

All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article.

Abbreviations


Vp
:

Vibrio parahaemolyticus

qPCR:

quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction


tlh
:

thermolabile hemolysin

QMRA:

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

FIB:

Fecal Indicator Bacteria

GI:

Gastrointestinal Illness

CDC:

Control Diseases Center

LOD:

Limit of Detection

DALY:

Disability-Adjusted Life Year

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Acknowledgements

The authors express their gratitude to the Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, for their support and cooperation in conducting this study.

Funding

This research was financially supported by the Iran University of Medical Sciences under grant number 20016.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammad Ahmadi

  2. Student’s Scientific Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammad Ahmadi

  3. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Ali Esrafili & Roshanak Rezaei Kalantary

  4. Physiology Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Hamidreza Pazoki-Toroudi & Fazel Gorjipour

  5. Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

    Hamidreza Pazoki-Toroudi

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  1. Mohammad Ahmadi
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  2. Ali Esrafili
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  4. Fazel Gorjipour
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  5. Roshanak Rezaei Kalantary
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Mohammad Ahmadi: Methodology, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Ali Esrafili: Methodology, Validation, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Hamidreza Pazoki-Toroudi: Methodology, Validation. Fazel Gorjipour : Methodology, Validation, Writing – review & editing. Roshanak Rezaei Kalantary : Data curation, Supervision, Project administration, Conceptualization, Validation, Resources, Writing – review & editing.

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Roshanak Rezaei Kalantary.

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Ahmadi, M., Esrafili, A., Pazoki-Toroudi, H. et al. Occurrence, environmental correlates, and risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Caspian sea coastal waters.
Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-28883-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-28883-w

Keywords

  • Caspian sea
  • Coastal water
  • Probability of illness
  • QMRA

  • V. parahaemolyticus. DALY

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