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A scenario-based modelling approach to implementing nature-based solutions for flood risk mitigation in Hannover

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Abstract

The EU Nature Restoration Regulation suggests the implementation of green space as nature-based solutions to enhance urban resilience toward increasing climate risks such as extreme precipitation events and floods in Europe. Scenario based approaches enable the evaluation of the potential of specific nature-based solutions to mitigate flood risk in high flood hazard and vulnerable areas. In this study, we explore the flood risks from heavy rainfall and the potential of nature-based solutions implementations in the city of Hannover, Germany. Using the InVEST urban flood risk mitigation model, we modelled the surface runoff from heavy rainfall and assessed the social vulnerability using population and infrastructure data resulting in a flood risk evaluation. To test flood mitigation under nature-based solutions implementations including grass grid pavers and green roofs, we estimated the runoff improvement under three nature-based solutions scenarios following recommendations from the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. Our analysis revealed that Hannover’s inner-city area is particularly flood-prone and socially vulnerable, while peripheral districts are less affected. The combined risk and vulnerability arise from the surface sealing in built-up areas and their higher population density and associated infrastructure. The scenario results demonstrate flood risk reduction potential when combining different nature-based solutions, though on a limited level calling for more explicit and ambitious regulations at EU, regional and local levels.

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Data availability

Spatial data are all available open access. Detailed data on modelling results are provided in the Supplementary Material.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the GoGreenNext project which has received funding from the European Union (Grant Agreement number 101137209). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA, granting authority). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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  1. Institute of Earth System Sciences, Physical Geography and Landscape Ecology Section, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany

    Paula Therese Schröder, Thea Wübbelmann & Nadja Kabisch

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  1. Paula Therese Schröder
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  2. Thea Wübbelmann
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  3. Nadja Kabisch
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P.S., T.W., and N.K. designed and conceptualised the study. P.S. wrote the draft manuscript text, did the modelling and designed and developed the Figures. T.W. and N.K. edited the manuscript, figures and tables.

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Nadja Kabisch.

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Schröder, P.T., Wübbelmann, T. & Kabisch, N. A scenario-based modelling approach to implementing nature-based solutions for flood risk mitigation in Hannover.
npj Urban Sustain (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00326-5

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