Philippa Kaur

AbstractCoastal West Bengal, also known as ‘Cyclone capital of India’, is one of the most vulnerable regions due to the impact of cyclone-led climate disasters, disproportionately affecting the smallholder livestock rearers. Therefore, understanding the adaptation strategies available to smallholder livestock rearers and the factors influencing their adoption behaviour would facilitate an understanding of how they cope with the negative impacts of climate change. This study aimed to identify and explore climate adaptation strategies in the livestock sector as adopted by smallholder livestock rearers in coastal West Bengal. It also attempted to analyse the determinants influencing the adoption behaviour of the rearers at both levels of the adoption decision and intensity of adoption. Primary cross-sectional data were collected from 360 smallholder livestock rearers across all districts of coastal West Bengal using a multistage sampling approach. The double hurdle model was employed to assess adoption behaviour. Seven key adaptation strategies were identified, including improved feeding practices, shifting from large ruminants to small ruminants, availing of livestock insurance, well-ventilated housing, relocating animals to a safe place during disasters, preserving fodder, and providing more healthcare practices for livestock. While herd size, availability of climatic information, and community participation had a positive influence on the farmers’ adoption decisions, the availability of non-institutional credit and infrastructure had a negative influence. The intensity of adoption was positively influenced by herd size, access to institutional credit, training received, community participation, and access to livestock extension services. The findings support the need for policy advocacy to provide institutional credit, strengthen institutions to facilitate better extension services, and establish safe places for animals, such as cyclone shelters. Climate policy should consider addressing the heterogeneity responsible for non-adoption among farmers through awareness-building and the provision of incentives. Policy should also be geared towards easy accessibility to better healthcare services for livestock, availability of improved feeds and fodder, a community fodder bank and an organised market for livestock produce.

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Download referencesAcknowledgementsWe have a sincere gratitude to the Director, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal and ADG (NASF), ICAR, New Delhi for providing all the facilities for this study. We are also thankful to our esteemed dairy farmers for sharing their views and giving time for the research work.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsNational Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, Haryana, 132001, IndiaAmitava Panja, Sanchita Garai, Sanjit Maiti, Siddhesh Zade, Apoorva Veldandi & Gopal SankhalaICAR-Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute, Jhansi, 284003, IndiaBishwa Bhaskar ChoudharyAuthorsAmitava PanjaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarSanchita GaraiView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarSanjit MaitiView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarBishwa Bhaskar ChoudharyView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarSiddhesh ZadeView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarApoorva VeldandiView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarGopal SankhalaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsConception of the study and design of the study was done by Amitava Panja, Sanchita Garai and Sanjit Maiti. Data collection and first draft writing was done by Amitava Panja. Data analysis and data curation was done by Amitava Panja, Sanchita Garai and Sanjit Maiti. Correction of methodology was done by Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary. Software support was done by Siddhesh Zade and Apoorva Veldandi. Study was supervised by Gopal Sankhala. All authors commented on the previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
Sanchita Garai.Ethics declarations

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The study was conducted using ethical standards for carrying out survey-based research. Procedure of the study along with the methods used were approved both at departmental level and institutional level by Dairy Extension Division, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, India. Before data collection, verbal consent was obtained from all the respondents regarding their participation. Simultaneously, they were also informed regarding the voluntariness for being a respondent, information confidentiality and identification anonymity.

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Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articlePanja, A., Garai, S., Maiti, S. et al. Exploring determinants of climate change adaptation by smallholder livestock farmers in coastal West Bengal, India using a double hurdle econometric approach.
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Various geoengineering approaches have been proposed for carbon dioxide (CO2) removal but their viability at scale remains unclear. Here, we consider the natural behaviour of driftwood, the warming-induced acceleration of sea-ice loss and tree growth, as well as the stability of cellulose in subfossil wood under cold-anoxic conditions, to introduce the concept of sinking timber from the boreal forest for durable CO2 sequestration at the deep Arctic Ocean floor.

IntroductionCapture and storage of atmospheric CO2 offer a means to stabilise climate alongside emission-reduction efforts. However, it is estimated that over 10 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 would have to be removed and sequestered each year over the 21st century to mitigate legacy effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and compensate for those sources expected to remain hard to decarbonise1,2,3. While reductions of fossil fuel burning must be prioritised at national and international levels3,4, different hybrid nature-engineering technologies have been recommended to capture and store CO2 from the Earth’s atmosphere. Although frequently presented as viable strategies for mitigating the effects of greenhouse gas emissions1,2, many approaches face questions regarding their scalability and the risk of counterproductive consequences for humans and the environment5.Among proposed solutions is ‘Wood Vaulting’ (WV) or ‘Wood Harvesting and Storage’ (WHS)1,2,5, which involves burying woody biomass in engineered enclosures that inhibit decomposition under anaerobic or frozen conditions, thereby ideally sequestering carbon on multi-millennial or even longer timescales. A prototype Wood Vault Unit (WVU) of 1 ha spatial extent and 20 m soil depth could store around 105 m3 of timber, which is equivalent to approximately 0.1 Mt CO2. It would therefore take annual construction of 104 WVU to operate at 1 Gt yr−1 of CO2 removal, corresponding to a roughly 25% increase in global logging (currently around 4 × 109 m3 of wood annually6). Substantial ecological and societal trade-offs can be expected from operating at such scale, including lasting impacts on soil carbon and mycorrhizal networks, biodiversity loss, and co-emissions associated with deforestation, transportation and vault construction5,7. Further, the putative benefits of WV would be offset if only a fraction of methane generated from decaying wood reaches the atmosphere8,9.Here, we examine the natural occurrence and behaviour of driftwood from the boreal forest to introduce a variant of WHS that would involve durable carbon storage on the deep, near anoxic floor of the Arctic Ocean.Driftwood solution for carbon sequestrationThe circumpolar boreal forest zone stretches across northern North America and Eurasia, from Alaska and northern Canada through Scandinavia and across the Siberian taiga. Characterised by cold climates, slow growing conifers, widespread peatlands, extensive permafrost soils, and gigantic river systems10,11,12, the world’s largest terrestrial biome also represents an enormous carbon pool13,14, with as much as 103 Gt (1018 g) of carbon stored in living trees, dead wood, soils and peat15. Unlike wildland tropical forests, the estimated carbon stocks of boreal forest ecosystems are likely to increase under global warming16, though whether the taiga as a whole becomes a net source or sink of carbon under warming remains unclear15. Parts of the boreal forest export large quantities of organic matter to riparian zones and fluvial networks, which ultimately reach the Arctic Ocean via surface runoff, riverbank erosion and mass wasting17,18. This drainage includes substantial but unquantified amounts of coarse woody material, known as driftwood19, some of which accumulates in the vast delta systems of large boreal rivers and along Arctic coastlines20,21.Riverbank erosion strongly controls the amount of natural driftwood transported to the Arctic Ocean (Fig. 1A–C). In open ocean conditions, intact stems typically remain buoyant for 1 yr depending on species, but when entrained in sea ice they can be transported for several years before being released19. Timescales for wood to sink to the deep floor of the Arctic Ocean depend on density contrast, ocean depth and currents but are likely significantly shorter than floating time. This natural process is accelerating due to the combined effects of warming-induced permafrost thaw and forest expansion22,23, as well as rapid sea-ice loss and increased river discharge24,25 (Fig. 1D, E).Fig. 1: Arctic amplification and driftwood solution.A natural erosion and tree tipping, as well as (B) driftwood accumulation along the Indigirka river in northeastern Siberia (taken by Ulf Büntgen in July 2016). (C) Underwater logs on the ocean floor of the northwest continental shelf of the Chinese Sea51. D changes in sea-ice concentration >60 and >66° North (red and orange, respectively) expressed as total annual sums of sea-ice cover anomalies52, (E) changes in vapour pressure (warmer and wetter conditions) >60 and >66° North (dark and light blue, respectively) expressed as average hPa anomalies53, and (F) changes in tree-ring width (TRW; light green) and maximum latewood density (MXD; dark green) expressed as mean and median (thin dashed lines) timeseries after ‘signal-free age-dependent spline’ detrending of eight undisturbed boreal forest sites in northern North America and northern Eurasia (https://climexp.knmi.nl and https://www.monostar.org).Full size imageA few very large river systems drain broad sectors of the circumpolar boreal forest and deliver the majority of terrestrial freshwater and dissolved and particulate organic carbon to the Arctic Ocean17,18,25,26. The most important catchments (and their discharge) of the Russian taiga from west to east are those of the Ob (400 km3 yr−1), Yenisey (590 km3 yr−1), Lena (540 km3 yr−1), and Kolyma (70 km3 yr−1), while the Mackenzie in Canada (290 km3 yr−1) and Yukon in Alaska (210 km3 yr−1) drain most of the taiga in northern North America17,26. Collectively they represent an estimated 11% of global freshwater runoff26. While increasing their discharge rates, and hence the amount of driftwood that can reach the Arctic Ocean, recent anthropogenic warming is also affecting the capacity of individual trees and entire forest ecosystems to sequester CO2 from the atmosphere. Total ring width and maximum latewood density values of conifers across the boreal forests of northern North America and Eurasia have been increasing since a period of reduced growth at the end of the 20th century27,28 (Fig. 1F).A key aspect of our thought experiment on using driftwood to sequester atmospheric carbon is the negligible rate of wood decay after sinking (Fig. 1C). Extremely low decay rates under near anoxic and freezing conditions29,30 suggest the deep Arctic Ocean floor would be highly suited for long-term storage. This is supported by measurements of circa 200 living and relict, dry-dead and subfossil trees from different cold, oxic and anoxic environments in the European Alps (e.g., talus, lakes and peat), which revealed no systematic decline in α-cellulose content over the past 8000 years31 (Fig. 2). The centennial to multi-millennial scale stability of wood carbon is further corroborated by decades of worldwide dendrochronological research on dry-dead and subfossil wood samples from historical buildings, archaeological excavations, and sediments spanning Holocene and even Pleistocene contexts32. While the composition and deposition of boreal driftwood should be confirmed, we expect the combination of low temperature, reduced oxygen and limited wood-borer activity to characterise large parts of the Arctic shelf and deep basin33,34,35.Fig. 2: Wood preservation and carbon sequestration.A Alpha-cellulose content in 17 living and circa 183 relict, dry-dead and subfossil larch (Larix decidua Mill.) and pine (Pinus cembra L.) trees from the Austrian and Swiss Alps between 1950 and 2400 m asl, where wood preservation is promoted by near freezing conditions31. Brown horizontal bars show the timespan of the individual wood samples after precise cross-dating (x-axis) and the median α-cellulose content expressed in percentage and calculated from five-year blocks. The dashed line is the mean and suggests that there are no long-term effects of possible wood decay on α-cellulose content in living, dry-dead and subfossil trees over the past 8000 years (6980 BCE to 2015 CE). B Box plots summarise data for each millennium over much of the Holocene. We also measured 26.4% (±7.16) of remaining α-cellulose in a radiocarbon-dead subfossil tree trunk from northern Greenland (not shown).Full size imageConclusion and projectionThough widely discussed (and frequently criticised)36,37,38, planting trees for carbon removal and storage has limited impact beyond their lifespan (captured by the adage “grow fast and die young”)39. Evidence also suggests that afforestation of Arctic tundra is likely to result in net warming due to reduced surface albedo38, negating perceived climate change mitigation benefits of high-latitude tree planting on previously unforested terrain. Instead, we suggest further exploration of the potential of harvesting and rafting large quantities of boreal timber into the Arctic Ocean for CO2 removal and multi-millennial scale storage (Fig. 3). Given access to carbon rich, and economically unimportant boreal conifer trees with short transit routes to large river systems, combined with efficient monocultural reforestation practices, the cold Arctic Ocean could store vast quantities of carbon from Siberia and northern North America where biodiversity is low and the risk of wildfires high40. The burning-induced succession of boreal forests has almost tripled during the first two decades of the 21st century as the biome became warmer 41.Fig. 3: Driftwood carbon storage model with agent-perspective.A Circumpolar boreal forest zone with large river systems, and the extent of burnt boreal forest between 2002 and 2020 that amounts to circa 1,835,00 km² (red areas)42,43. B Least-cost analysis of a boreal forest patch with suitable timber harvesting parameters and optimal driftwood transportation conditions along the closest river to the nearest ocean54. Floating time is calculated as average downstream river run-off velocity and depending on rafting style and wood amount. An ecological buffer zone has been included around the nearest administrative centre from which labour and logistics are directed. The simplified model design includes an agent-perspective55, in which the ability for the exogenous (e.g., harvesting for wood products and wood vaulting, and maintenance for carbon offsetting) and endogenous (e.g., cultural, herding, etc) demand for forest services to be met by spatial production depends on factors such as forest productivity, land ownership, infrastructure, human resources and the decisions of modelled agents, informed by their values, objectives and perceptions of future monetary and non-monetary value of land. C Pictures of natural driftwood erosion, tree tipping and driftwood rafting, as well as Indigenous people at the Indigirka river in northeastern Siberia (all taken by Ulf Büntgen in July 2016).Full size imageTo achieve significant CO2 drawdown, we propose, for the purposes of our thought experiment, three units of circa 10,000 km2 (comparable to the size of Lake Onega in northwestern Russia near the Finnish border) for extensive harvesting and reforestation along each of the five main rivers and their tributaries in Russia, Alaska and Canada: Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yukon, and Mackenzie. Due to high fire risk (and low human population), these regions carry ~10–30 t/ha of larch, pine or spruce timber for harvesting (at decreasing mass per unit area with increasing latitude). Taking 15 t/ha stand carbon content, annual logging and rafting of circa 180,000 km2 timber could remove up to 1 Gt/y of CO2. The total area of harvesting would represent around 1% of the boreal forest zone, comparable with the area consumed annually by wildfires42,43. All target regions should be even-aged, biodiversity-poor and fire-prone monocultural coniferous stands of low economic and cultural value. If logging is mainly carried out in winter, access may be facilitated by extensive ice roads, clearing can be performed on solid ground, and timber can be placed directly on the frozen rivers. Mulching small branches and other wooden remains can decrease fire risk, increase soil development, and enhance nutrient availability.Natural and silvicultural reforestation is likely to sequester most CO2 during the first few decades of forest regeneration44,45. Such a multi-year, seasonal cycle of harvesting, sinking and replanting will always capture more CO2 than any form of natural taiga succession in which trees grow slower and will either burn or decompose afterwards. Potential removal rates, however, can be expected to vary substantially between biogeographic zones, and boreal forests are less productive (but more durable) than those in warmer climates44,45. It should be further noted that the boreal rivers and their vast delta systems19,20,21, together with large parts of the circumpolar coastlines of northern North America and Eurasia already contain significant amounts of driftwood46.Although our thought experiment should not distract from the priority of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with continued economic growth undermining efforts to meet the Paris Agreement targets, carbon removal proposals are increasingly relevant47. As with other means for carbon capture and removal, our sylvicultural proposal is not without caveats and requires further interdisciplinary scientific investigation. We recognise significant issues must be evaluated carefully in developing and refining our concept not least concerning land ownership by indigenous peoples, infrastructure and market value, topography, hydrology, accessibility, biodiversity, and productivity of different harvest units in the boreal forest zone, as well as the species-specific sinking potential of driftwood under changing sea-ice conditions, and the locations of its final deposition in more or less anoxic parts of the Arctic Ocean floor. Undesirable environmental impacts that might arise include the release of phenols and other wood chemicals during both controlled and uncontrolled river rafting, and ocean sinking, while large quantities of floating timber may threaten riverine and maritime traffic. Geo-political questions concerning different cost factors and ownership rights of the Arctic Ocean floor would also need to be addressed, including whether seabed driftwood storage should be accounted as part of the terrestrial or marine environment, with implications for carbon sink and source budgeting at national and international scales (and hence carbon credit incentivisation). Rigorous cost-benefit modelling with a comprehensive agent-perspective for environmental and societal impact assessments is also needed (Fig. 3). Such a model must accurately address multi-scalar, cross-cultural and cross-functional/sectoral48 tensions between the norm and value-based institutions of indigenous forest user groups and the market cost and revenue generation processes of the logging and climate mitigation industry49,50. A refined model is expected to define ecologically, economically and politically suitable harvesting practices, logging terrains and shipping routes (Fig. 3).While logging at a desirable scale could hypothetically be achieved by Russia alone, we imagine a coordinated circumpolar effort that complements other mitigation strategies. Following scientific and indigenous guidance, the incentive for Moscow, Ottawa and Washington to start considering a viable concept of using driftwood to sequester atmospheric carbon could be twofold: Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic climate and environmental change, in tandem with fiscal profit from carbon credit points, and international reputation for sustainable nature-based geoengineering.

Data availability

No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.
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Download referencesAcknowledgementsThis study was supported by the AdAgriF project: “Advanced methods of greenhouse gases emission reduction and sequestration in agriculture and forest landscape for climate change mitigation” (CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635), the ERC Advanced Grant (882727; Monostar), and the ERC Synergy Grant (101118880; Synergy-Plague). We are thankful to colleagues in Brno, Cambridge and Mainz for stimulating discussions.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKUlf Büntgen, Clive Oppenheimer, Michael Kempf, Tito Arosio & Tatiana BebchukGlobal Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech RepublicUlf Büntgen, Mirek Trnka, Ian Holman & Jan EsperDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech RepublicUlf BüntgenDepartment of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Faculty of Agronomy, Mendel University, Brno, Czech RepublicMirek TrnkaQuaternary Geology, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, Basel, SwitzerlandMichael KempfCranfield University, Bedfordshire, UKIan HolmanForest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, SwitzerlandTito ArosioDepartment of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, GermanyJan EsperAuthorsUlf BüntgenView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarClive OppenheimerView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMirek TrnkaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarMichael KempfView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarIan HolmanView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarTito ArosioView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarTatiana BebchukView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarJan EsperView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsU.B. and J.E. initiated and conceived the study. U.B. wrote the manuscript together with C.O., M.T., I.H. and J.E., whereas M.K. was responsible for the model aspect of the study. T.A. provided cellulose data and T.B. contributed to discussion and revision.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
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AbstractThe application of appropriate fertilizer sources and the optimization of nitrogen management are key strategies for increasing crop yield and nutrient use efficiency. An on-farm experiment was conducted in five districts of the North Shewa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, to evaluate three phosphorus sources (NPS, DAP, and TSP) and nitrogen application times (100% and 75% of the recommended rate, with split applications) for wheat and tef production. The experiments for bread wheat were conducted on contrasting soil types (Cambisols, heavy Vertisols, and light Vertisols), whereas the experiments for tef were conducted on heavy Vertisols. A randomized complete block design was used, with a farm considered a replication (only a single replication with all treatments was planted at a farm). Data on growth and yield were analyzed using R software version 4.3. All phosphorus sources significantly increased yields compared to the control, with wheat yields increasing from 1,898 to 4,640-5,360 kg ha-1 and tef from 1,376 to 2,382-2,591 kg ha-1. Notably, the 75% N rate with split application improved the agronomic efficiency of nitrogen (AEN) by 38.8% and the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) by 19.5% compared with the previously recommended two-split applications, suggesting a cost-effective and efficient N management approach. Farmer preferences, assessed via Likert scales, aligned with the observed biological yield trends. These findings suggest that NPS, DAP, and TSP perform similarly from an agronomic perspective, and fertilizer choice can be guided by local availability and cost. Reduced, split nitrogen applications offer a cost-effective way to improve wheat and tef productivity and nutrient use efficiency, supporting sustainable fertilizer management.

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Data availability

The data sets used during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Download referencesAcknowledgementsThe authors acknowledge the staff of the soil and water management department at Debre Birhan Agricultural Research Center for their invaluable support in input provision, data collection, and field assistance.FundingThis work was supported by the OCP Ethiopia Fertilizer Manufacturing PLC (OCPEFM PLC) (no grant number).Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsAmhara Agricultural Research Institute, Debre Birhan Agricultural Research Center, P.O. Box 112, Debre Birhan, EthiopiaYalemegena Gete, Beza Shewangizaw, Kenzemed Kassie, Shawl Assefa, Getaneh Shegaw, Lisanu Getaneh, Dejene Mamo, Getachew Lema & Genet TayeAmhara Agricultural Research Institute, Adet Agricultural Research Center, P.O. Box 08, Bahir Dar, EthiopiaTadele AmareAmhara Agricultural Research Institute, P.O. Box 527, Bahir Dar, EthiopiaTesfaye FeyisaAuthorsYalemegena GeteView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarBeza ShewangizawView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarKenzemed KassieView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarShawl AssefaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarTadele AmareView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarTesfaye FeyisaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarGetaneh ShegawView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarLisanu GetanehView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarDejene MamoView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarGetachew LemaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarGenet TayeView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsY.G.: Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. B.S., K.K., S.A., T.A., T.F., G.S., L.G., D.M., G.L., and G.T: Investigation, Supervision, Validation, Writing – review and editing.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
Yalemegena Gete.Ethics declarations

Permission to perform the experiment
This experiment was performed in accordance with the Debre Birhan Agricultural Research Center and Amhara Region Agricultural Research Institute review protocol. Based on this annual review, it has permission to do the experiment on the farms. The study involved on-farm fertilizer trials with volunteer farmers in North Shewa, Ethiopia. All participants gave informed consent for participation and for publication of photographs, and no personal or identifiable information was collected or disclosed.

Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.

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Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleGete, Y., Shewangizaw, B., Kassie, K. et al. Evaluation of phosphorus fertilizer sources and nitrogen optimization for wheat and tef in Ethiopia’s central highlands.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34369-6Download citationReceived: 12 September 2025Accepted: 28 December 2025Published: 03 January 2026DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34369-6Share this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy shareable link to clipboard
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KeywordsDAPNPSTSPNorth Shewa More

AbstractDrought indicators are essential for agricultural sustainability. This research employs causal inference and information theory to identify the most representative drought indicator (index or variable) for agricultural productivity. The causal connection between precipitation, maximum air temperature, drought indices and corn and soybean yield are ascertained by cross convergent mapping (CCM), while the information transfer between them is determined through transfer entropy (TE). This research is conducted on rainfed agricultural lands in Iowa, considering the phenological stages of crops. The results uncover both the causal connection between corn yield and precipitation and maximum temperature indices. Based on the analysis, the drought indices with the strongest causal relationship to crop production are SPEI-9 m and SPI-6 m during the silking period, and SPI-9 m and SPI-6 m during the doughing period. Therefore, these indices may be considered as the most effective predictors in crop yield prediction models. The study highlights the need to consider phenological periods when estimating crop production, as the causal relationship between corn yield and drought indices differs for the two phenological periods.

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Data availability

Crop phenology data were extracted from here (USDA-NASS): (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.php). Land Cover Data: (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/lgrip30v001). gridMET Drought Indices (EDDI, scPDSI, SPEI, SPI): (https://www.climatologylab.org/gridmet.html). DAYMET Meteorological (Precipitation and T max ) Data: (https://daymet.ornl.gov).
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Serhan Yeşilköy.Ethics declarations

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleYeşilköy, S., Baydaroğlu, Ö. & Demir, I. Linking drought indicators and crop yields through causality and information transfer: a phenology-based analysis.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32185-6Download citationReceived: 11 August 2025Accepted: 09 December 2025Published: 03 January 2026DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32185-6Share this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy shareable link to clipboard
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KeywordsDroughtCrop yieldCausalityPhenologyCross convergent mappingTransfer entropyIowa More

AbstractSoil salinization, driven by the accumulation of soluble salts, poses a significant threat to ecosystem health and agricultural productivity in arid and semi-arid regions, representing a major environmental issue on a global scale. To address critical knowledge gaps regarding salt dynamics in hyper-arid basins, this study integrates Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS, Sentinel-2, and ASTER GDEM data with 128 surface soil samples collected from the Qaidam Basin between January and October 2024, systematically investigating the spatiotemporal distribution of soluble salts. The study further quantifies the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources to ecological geochemical feedbacks, defined as the interactions among soil salinization, vegetation degradation, and groundwater dynamics. Results indicate that soluble salt minerals in the surface soil—primarily halite and gypsum—account for an average of 8.82%, while water-soluble ions—mainly Na⁺, Cl⁻, Ca²⁺, and SO₄²⁻—reach 9.76 wt%. Natural sources, such as salt lake evaporation, contribute approximately 85% of the salinity in the core lake areas, whereas anthropogenic sources, including irrigation, lead to a roughly 30% enrichment of NO₃⁻ in oasis regions. The study also reveals a radial salt distribution pattern driven by wind–water coupling: halite accumulates predominantly near the salt lakes, while gypsum dominates in distal Gobi areas, illustrating the spatial mechanisms of the salt cycle. This study advances understanding of salinity cycling mechanisms in arid regions and provides a scientific basis for the sustainable exploitation of salt lake resources and the development of targeted ecological restoration strategies.

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Data availability

The data used in this study are available upon reasonable request. The provided datasets include: water-soluble ion concentrations from 128 surface soil samples in the Qaidam Basin (CSV format); dust deposition monitoring data from seven observation points (CSV format); preprocessed remote sensing data, including Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, and ASTER GDEM (GeoTIFF format); and salinity distribution maps generated via Kriging interpolation (GeoTIFF format). Researchers can contact the corresponding author to access these datasets for result reproduction and further studies.Contact Person: Yongxing ZhangEmail: [email protected].
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Yongxing Zhang.Ethics declarations

Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional informationPublisher’s noteSpringer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleXing, Y., Wang, Y., Zhang, Y. et al. Remotely sensed spatiotemporal dynamics of soluble salts and their natural and anthropogenic drivers in hyper-arid basins.
Sci Rep (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34431-3Download citationReceived: 06 August 2025Accepted: 29 December 2025Published: 03 January 2026DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-34431-3Share this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy shareable link to clipboard
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KeywordsMulti-source remote sensingQaidam basinSoluble saltsSpatiotemporal distributionAtmospheric deposition More

AbstractRapid urbanization has driven widespread increases in artificial light at night, intensifying energy use, light pollution, and sustainability challenges. However, its ecological impacts, particularly on vegetation phenological transitions, remain poorly understood. Using 62,994 site-year in situ records and satellite observations across 452 cities from 2001 to 2022, we show that elevated levels of artificial light at night are associated with delayed dates of foliar senescence in urban areas. This delaying effect is spatially heterogeneous and nonlinear, being most pronounced at low light intensities ( < 15 nW cm–2 sr–1) and decreasing or saturating at higher levels. Regional variability in effects of artificial light at night is primarily shaped by urban socioeconomic factors and vegetation traits. Mechanistically, the delaying effect may result from enhanced carbon assimilation and altered climatic responses. We further improve the phenological modeling by incorporating the effects of artificial light at night and project overall later foliar senescence dates than currently predicted. Collectively, our findings highlight a previously underrecognized pathway by which urbanization alters vegetation phenology, with implications for forecasting ecosystem dynamics under continued urban growth and climate change.

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Data availability

All data used in this study are freely available from the following sources: In situ DFS data can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17925641 and http://www.pep725.eu/. Satellite-derived DFS data is available from https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mcd12q2v061/. NPP-VIIRS-like nighttime light data is available from https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/YGIVCD. DMSP-OLS nighttime light data is available from https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/dmsp/. NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data is available from https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnl/. H-NTL-v2 data is available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17925641. Global urban boundaries data is available from https://data-starcloud.pcl.ac.cn/iearthdata/map?id=14. Six-hourly temperature data is available from https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/aed8e269513f446fb1b5d2512bb387ad/. Monthly climatic data is available from https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.html. HDI, GDP, Per capita GDP data is available from https://datadryad.org/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.dk1j0. Aboveground biomass is available from https://zenodo.org/records/13331493. Tree density is available from https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/yale_fes_data/1/. Canopy height is available from https://webmap.ornl.gov/ogc/dataset.jsp?ds_id=1665. GPP, ET, FPAR data are available from https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/. Vcmax data is available from https://www.nesdc.org.cn/sdo/detail?id=612f42ee7e28172cbed3d80f. SIF is available from https://globalecology.unh.edu/data/GOSIF.html. Future temperatures, Per capita GPP data were from the CMIP6 models (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/). Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability

All data analyses and modeling were performed using Python (v3.8.10). The code is stored in a publicly available Zenodo repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17925641.
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Download referencesAcknowledgementsThis study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China grant (42125101, W2412014). W.Q. was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China grant (42401029). J.P. was supported by the Spanish Government grants TED2021-132627 B–I00 and PID2022-140808NB-I00, funded by MCIN, AEI/10.13039/ 501100011033 European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR, and the Fundación Ramón Areces grant CIVP20A6621.Author informationAuthor notesThese authors contributed equally: Yang Chen, Wendi Qu.Authors and AffiliationsThe Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaYang Chen & Chaoyang WuUniversity of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaYang Chen & Chaoyang WuSchool of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, ChinaWendi QuDepartment of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandConstantin M. ZohnerCSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Catalonia, SpainJosep PeñuelasCREAF, Cerdanyola del Valles, Barcelona, Catalonia, SpainJosep PeñuelasAuthorsYang ChenView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarWendi QuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarConstantin M. ZohnerView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarJosep PeñuelasView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarChaoyang WuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsC.W. designed the research. Y.C. and W.Q. wrote the first draft of the manuscript. Y.C. performed the analyses and visualization. W.Q. processed ground-based phenology datasets. C.M.Z. and J.P. discussed the design, methods and results and substantially revised the manuscript with intensive suggestions.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
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Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleChen, Y., Qu, W., Zohner, C.M. et al. Increased artificial illumination delays urban autumnal foliar senescence.
Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68246-7Download citationReceived: 04 August 2025Accepted: 19 December 2025Published: 03 January 2026DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68246-7Share this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy shareable link to clipboard
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AbstractForest biodiversity experiments test how species diversity affects forest ecosystem functioning, typically in terms of forest productivity. In this Review, we discuss key findings from these experiments and put them into context with observational studies from forests. Experimental studies can reveal causal effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning, which is extremely challenging in observational studies. The past three decades of experimental research show that increasing tree diversity can promote a multitude of ecosystem functions through resource partitioning, abiotic and biotic facilitation, and other species interactions. The longest-running experiments show that these relationships strengthen over time, and comparative work in natural or planted forests suggests that these effects are likely to persist. Moreover, diversity at other trophic levels can strongly mediate tree diversity effects on forest productivity. New experiments that manipulate both tree diversity and the diversity of other trophic levels as orthogonal treatments are needed to investigate causality in these interactions. Furthermore, experiments crossing tree diversity with global change factors are necessary to understand the context-dependency of tree diversity–ecosystem functioning relationships under global change. Finally, combining insights from observational studies and experiments can help biodiversity–ecosystem function research to inform restoration and forest management targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework.

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Fig. 1: The locations and types of 45 forest biodiversity experiments covering 72 sites globally.Fig. 2: Potential mechanisms underlying the tree diversity effect over time.Fig. 3: Trophic mediation of tree diversity effects via interactions with and among higher trophic levels.Fig. 4: Experimental and observational BEF approaches.

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Download referencesAcknowledgementsWe thank S. Li, Y. Li, C. Chen and S. Zhang for their help in collecting the experiment information in Supplementary Table 1 and improving the figures. X.L. was supported by the National Key Research Development Program of China (2022YFF0802300), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (32525042 and 32222055), and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (2023019). J.C.-B. was supported by the ASCEND Biology Integration Institute, NSF DBI (2021898) and Cedar Creek Long-Term Ecological Research, NSF DEB (1831944). A.S. was supported by the German Research Foundation DFG (452861007/FOR 5281). B.S. was supported by the NOMIS Foundation, the Presidential International Fellowship Initiative (PIFI) from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the University Research Priority Program on Global Change and Biodiversity of the University of Zurich.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsKey Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaXiaojuan Liu & Keping MaChina National Botanical Garden, Beijing, ChinaXiaojuan LiuUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaXiaojuan LiuForest Nature Conservation, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, GermanyAndreas SchuldtDepartment of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USAJeannine Cavender-BaresCentre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, CanadaAlain PaquetteRemote Sensing Laboratories, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandBernhard SchmidAuthorsXiaojuan LiuView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAndreas SchuldtView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarJeannine Cavender-BaresView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAlain PaquetteView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarBernhard SchmidView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarKeping MaView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsX.L. and K.M. conceived the idea. X.L. A.S., J.C.-B., A.P., B.S. and K.M. together wrote the review.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
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A species in a mixture benefits from the presence of other species that change the abiotic or biotic environment.
Functional diversity
Variation in function among individuals or species within a circumscribed space, often calculated for multiple traits, using a variety of metrics, which can be abundance-weighted.
Multi-functionality
Measures combining multiple ecosystem functions into a single value, based on averages or on the number of functions reaching a minimal level.
Multi-trophic diversity
The species diversity across multiple groups of organisms belonging to different trophic levels, often expressed as the average across the standardized (that is, relative) species richness values of each group of organisms.
Phylogenetic diversity
Evolutionary divergence among individuals or species within a circumscribed space, calculated from a phylogeny using a variety of metrics, which can be abundance-weighted.
Resilience
The ability of ecosystem properties to return to a pre-disturbance condition after a disturbance.
Resistance
The ability of individuals, species or communities to persist and maintain ecosystem functions despite exposure to a stress or disturbance.
Stability
The capacity of an ecosystem to maintain its structure and function over time, despite disturbances and environmental fluctuations.
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AbstractFungal parasites are associated with bloom-forming algae, yet their impact on N2 fixation and the fate of newly fixed nitrogen during cyanobacterial blooms is poorly understood. We report infections on the ecologically important N2-fixing cyanobacterium Dolichospermum (formerly Anabaena) in the Baltic Sea. Using single-cell isotope probing, microscopy, and biogeochemical analyses, we examine how infections affect carbon and N2 fixation and elemental transfer within a natural community. Fungal sporangia infect up to 80% of filaments, mostly targeting storage cells (akinetes, 82% prevalence) and N2-fixing cells (heterocytes, 44%), but rarely vegetative cells (5%). Infections at akinete–heterocyte junctions extract 4- and 10-fold more carbon and nitrogen than those on vegetative cells, reducing host storage by 28% and 56%. Overall, 22% of newly fixed nitrogen is transferred to fungi, comparable to heterotrophic bacteria. Infections also occur in Nodularia and Aphanizomenon, suggesting fungi-like parasitism broadly affects bloom dynamics and the fate of new nitrogen.

Data availability

Sequence data have been deposited in ENA (European Nucleotide Archive) under project accession no. PRJEB96922. Accession numbers used to construct the phylogenetic tree in Supplementary Fig. S5 are listed in Supplementary Table S5, as accessed on the NCBI database. The raw mass spectrometer output can be found in Supplementary Dataset 1. Source data are provided with this paper.
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Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articleFeuring, A., Lawrence, C.D., Salcedo, J. et al. Fungal parasites infecting N2-fixing cyanobacteria reshape carbon and N2 fixation and trophic transfer.
Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67818-xDownload citationReceived: 11 June 2025Accepted: 09 December 2025Published: 02 January 2026DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-67818-xShare this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy shareable link to clipboard
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