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A multi-temporal scale framework for comprehensive quantification and attribution of anthropogenic impacts on runoff


Abstract

Attribution analysis of runoff variation holds significant importance for water resource conservation and management. This study established a methodological framework for runoff reconstruction, quantification, and analysis of contribution rates. The framework comprises four core components: (1) Aggregation of hydro-meteorological variables across multiple time scales, thereby identifying the most representative temporal scale for a given river basin, effectively overcoming the limitation of single-scale approaches common in previous research. (2) Optimization of explanatory variables specific to each temporal scale by integrating Spearman correlation and variance inflation factor (VIF) analysis, effectively addressing multicollinearity issues often overlooked in previous studies. (3) Reconstruction of runoff using Random Forest Regression Model (RFRM) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with multi-metric validation metrics, to ensure transferability across diverse river basins. (4) Across multiple temporal scales, the integration of remote sensing and statistical data to identify anthropogenic drivers addresses the limitations of single-factor attribution analysis. Tested in the Lan River Basin, the framework identified precipitation as the dominant meteorological driver (Spearman’s p = 0.90 at the seasonal scale), determined monthly and bimonthly scales as optimal for modeling, and revealed the complementary strengths of RFRM and SWAT—the latter excelling particularly in simulating high-flow extremes. Integration of multi-source data further elucidated the dual role of human activities on runoff, underscoring the value of quantitative attribution. These findings offer methodological guidance for temporal scale and model selection while providing a transferable approach for runoff attribution.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request, subject to compliance with institutional data access protocols and approval by the relevant ethics committee.

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Funding

This research was supported by the Joint Funds of the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. LZJWZ23E090010) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12002310).

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Authors

Contributions

Chunchen Xia: Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis. Lingna Zhang: Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing, Investigation, Methodology, Data curation. Zekai Zhu: Investigation, Data curation, Writing – review & editing. Huangjie Xia: Investigation, Data curation, Writing – review & editing. Haoyong Tian: Methodology, Conceptualization,Supervision.

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Correspondence to
Haoyong Tian.

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Xia, C., Zhang, L., Zhu, Z. et al. A multi-temporal scale framework for comprehensive quantification and attribution of anthropogenic impacts on runoff.
Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32088-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32088-6

Keywords

  • Runoff attribution
  • Multi-temporal scale
  • Machine learning model
  • Hydrological model
  • Remote sensing


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