Possingham, H. P., Wilson, K. A., Andelman, S. J. & Vynne, C. H. Protected areas. Goals, limitations, and design. In Principles of Conservation Biology (eds Groom, M. J. et al.) 507–549 (Sinauer Associates Inc, 2006).
Marquet, P. A., Lessmann, J. & Shaw, M. R. Protected-area management and climate change. In Biodiversity and Climate Change: Transforming the Biosphere (eds Lovejoy, T. E. & Hannah, L.) 283–293 (Yale University Press, 2019).
Google Scholar
Geldmann, J., Manica, A., Burgess, N. D., Coad, L. & Balmford, A. A global-level assessment of the effectiveness of protected areas at resisting anthropogenic pressures. PNAS https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1908221116 (2019).
Google Scholar
Potapov, P. et al. The last frontiers of wilderness: Tracking loss of intact forest landscapes from 2000 to 2013. Sci. Adv. 3, e1600821 (2017).
Google Scholar
Cazalis, V. et al. Effectiveness of protected areas in conserving tropical forest birds. Nat. Commun. 11, 4461 (2020).
Google Scholar
Dudley, N., Mansourian, S., Stolton, S. & Suksuwan, S. Do protected areas contribute to poverty reduction?. Biodiversity 11, 5–7 (2010).
Google Scholar
Dudley, N. & Stolton, S. Arguments for Protected Areas (Earthscan, 2010).
Google Scholar
CBD. Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, Including Aichi Biodiversity Targets. http://www.cbd.int/sp/ and http://www.cbd.int/decision/cop/?id=12268 (2010).
UNEP-WCMC & IUCN. Protected Planet: The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). www.protectedplanet.net. Accessed October 2022 (2022).
Watson, J. E. M. et al. Persistent disparities between recent rates of habitat conversion and protection and implications for future global conservation targets. Conserv. Lett. 9, 413–421 (2016).
Google Scholar
Díaz, S. et al. Summary for Policymakers of the IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. (2019).
Barnes, M. D., Glew, L., Wyborn, C. & Craigie, I. D. Prevent perverse outcomes from global protected area policy. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 759–762 (2018).
Google Scholar
Visconti, P. et al. Protected area targets post-2020. Science 364, 239–241 (2019).
Google Scholar
Kukkala, A. S. & Moilanen, A. Core concepts of spatial prioritisation in systematic conservation planning. Biol. Rev. 88, 443–464 (2013).
Google Scholar
Joppa, L. N. & Pfaff, A. High and Far: Biases in the location of protected areas. PLoS ONE 4, e8273 (2009).
Google Scholar
Maxwell, S. L. et al. Area-based conservation in the twenty-first century. Nature 586, 217–227 (2020).
Google Scholar
CBD. CoP 7 Decision VII/30. Strategic Plan: Future Evaluation of progress. 12 https://www.cbd.int/doc/decisions/cop-07/cop-07-dec-30-en.pdf (2004).
Venter, O. et al. Bias in protected-area location and its effects on long-term aspirations of biodiversity conventions. Conserv. Biol. 32, 127–134 (2017).
Google Scholar
Kuempel, C. D., Chauvenet, A. L. M. & Possingham, H. P. Equitable representation of ecoregions is slowly improving despite strategic planning shortfalls. Conserv. Lett. 9, 422–428 (2016).
Google Scholar
Barr, L. M., Watson, J. E. M., Possingham, H. P., Iwamura, T. & Fuller, R. A. Progress in improving the protection of species and habitats in Australia. Biol. Conserv. 200, 184–191 (2016).
Google Scholar
Hoffmann, S., Irl, S. D. H. & Beierkuhnlein, C. Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide. Nat. Commun. 10, 1–10 (2019).
Google Scholar
Hannah, L. Protected areas and climate change. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1134, 201–212 (2008).
Google Scholar
Thomas, C. D. & Gillingham, P. K. The performance of protected areas for biodiversity under climate change. Biol. J. Lin. Soc. 115, 718–730 (2015).
Google Scholar
Ramirez-Villegas, J. et al. Using species distributions models for designing conservation strategies of Tropical Andean biodiversity under climate change. J. Nat. Conserv. 22, 391–404 (2014).
Google Scholar
Bax, V. & Francesconi, W. Conservation gaps and priorities in the Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot: Implications for the expansion of protected areas. J. Environ. Manage. 232, 387–396 (2019).
Google Scholar
Jenkins, C. N., Pimm, S. L. & Joppa, L. N. Global patterns of terrestrial vertebrate diversity and conservation. PNAS 110, E2602–E2610 (2013).
Google Scholar
Rodrigues, A. S. L. et al. Global gap analysis: Priority regions for expanding the global protected-area network. Bioscience 54, 1092–1100 (2004).
Google Scholar
Thuiller, W., Georges, D., Engler, R. & Breiner, F. biomod2: Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Modeling. (2015).
Breiman, L. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45, 5–32 (2001).
Google Scholar
Friedman, J. H. Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine. Ann. Stat. 29, 1189–1232 (2001).
Google Scholar
Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P., Dudík, M., Schapire, R. E. & Blair, M. E. Opening the black box: An open-source release of Maxent. Ecography 40, 887–893 (2017).
Google Scholar
IUCN. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. (2017).
Gotelli, N. J. & Graves, G. R. Null Models in Ecology. (1996).
Araújo, M. B. & Pearson, R. G. Equilibrium of species’ distributions with climate. Ecography 28, 693–695 (2005).
Google Scholar
Watson, J. E. M., Grantham, H. S., Wilson, K. A. & Possingham, H. P. Systematic conservation planning: Past, present and future. In Conservation Biogeography (eds Ladle, R. J. & Whittaker, R. J.) (Wiley, 2011).
Bevilacqua, M. Áreas protegidas y conservación de la diversidad biológica. Biodivers. Venezuela 2, 922–943 (2003).
Franco, P., Saavedra-Rodríguez, C. A. & Kattan, G. H. Bird species diversity captured by protected areas in the Andes of Colombia: A gap analysis. Oryx 41, 57–63 (2007).
Google Scholar
Barzetti, V. Parks and Progress: Protected Areas and Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. (1993).
Schulman, L. et al. Amazonian biodiversity and protected areas: Do they meet?. Biodivers. Conserv. 16, 3011–3051 (2007).
Google Scholar
Dourojeanni, M. J. Áreas naturales protegidas e investigación científica en el Perú. Rev. For. Perú 33, 91–101 (2018).
Rodriguez, L. & Young, K. Biological diversity of peru: Determining priority areas for conservation. Ambio 29, 329–337 (2000).
Google Scholar
Ministerio del Ambiente & SERNANP. Plan Director de las Áreas Naturales Protegidas (Estrategia Nacional) (2009).
Cuesta-Camacho, F. et al. Identificación de Vacíos y Prioridades de Conservación Para la Biodiversidad Terrestre en el Ecuador Continental. http://protectedareas.info/upload/document/ecuador_terrestrial_gap_analysis.pdf (2006).
Naveda, J. A. Evaluación del grado de representatividad ecológica y geográfica del sistema de parques nacionales de Venezuela al norte del Orinoco: Anteproyecto. Rev. Geog. Venez. 38, 193–208 (1997).
Araujo, N., Müller, R., Nowicki, C. & Ibisch, P. L. Prioridades de conservación de la biodiversidad de Bolivia (editorial FAN, 2010)
Arango, N. et al. Vacíos de Conservación del Sistema de Parques Nacionales Naturales de Colombia desde una Perspectiva Ecorregional. https://wwflac.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/vacios_de_conservacion.pdf (2003).
Margules, C. R. & Pressey, R. L. Systematic conservation planning. Nature 405, 243–253 (2000).
Google Scholar
Sarkar, S., Sánchez-Cordero, V., Londoño, M. C. & Fuller, T. Systematic conservation assessment for the Mesoamerica, Chocó, and Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspots: A preliminary analysis. Biodivers. Conserv. 18, 1793–1828 (2009).
Google Scholar
Lessmann, J., Muñoz, J. & Bonaccorso, E. Maximizing species conservation in continental Ecuador: A case of systematic conservation planning for biodiverse regions. Ecol. Evol. 4, 2410–2422 (2014).
Google Scholar
Young, B. E. et al. Using spatial models to predict areas of endemism and gaps in the protection of Andean slope birds. Auk 126, 554–565 (2009).
Google Scholar
Fajardo, J., Lessmann, J., Bonaccorso, E., Devenish, C. & Muñoz, J. Combined use of systematic conservation planning, species distribution modelling, and connectivity analysis reveals severe conservation gaps in a megadiverse country (Peru). PLoS ONE 9, 1–23 (2014).
Google Scholar
Butchart, S. H. M. et al. Shortfalls and solutions for meeting national and global conservation area targets. Conserv. Lett. 8, 329–337 (2015).
Google Scholar
Pimm, S. L. et al. The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science 344, 6187 (2014).
Google Scholar
Swenson, J. J. et al. Plant and animal endemism in the eastern Andean slope: Challenges to conservation. BMC Ecol. 12, 1 (2012).
Google Scholar
Lessmann, J., Fajardo, J., Bonaccorso, E. & Bruner, A. Cost-effective protection of biodiversity in the western Amazon. Biol. Conserv. 235, 250–259 (2019).
Google Scholar
Rodrigues, A. S. L. & Gaston, K. J. How large do reserve networks need to be?. Ecol. Lett. 4, 602–609 (2001).
Google Scholar
Reyes-Puig, C. Diversity, threat, and conservation of reptiles from continental Ecuador. Amphib. Reptile Conserv. 11, 8 (2017).
Shanee, S. et al. Protected area coverage of threatened vertebrates and ecoregions in Peru: Comparison of communal, private and state reserves. J. Environ. Manage. 202, 12–20 (2017).
Google Scholar
Kujala, H., Moilanen, A., Araújo, M. B. & Cabeza, M. Conservation planning with uncertain climate change projections. PLoS ONE 8, e53315 (2013).
Google Scholar
Hannah, L. et al. 30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%. Ecography 43, 1–11 (2020).
Google Scholar
Velásquez-Tibatá, J., Salaman, P. & Graham, C. H. Effects of climate change on species distribution, community structure, and conservation of birds in protected areas in Colombia. Reg. Environ. Change 13, 235–248 (2013).
Google Scholar
del Avalos, V. R. & Hernández, J. Projected distribution shifts and protected area coverage of range-restricted Andean birds under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 4, 459–469 (2015).
Google Scholar
Warren, R. et al. Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 678–682 (2013).
Google Scholar
Golden Kroner, R. et al. COVID-era policies and economic recovery plans: Are governments building back better for protected and conserved areas?. PARKS 27, 135–148 (2021).
Google Scholar
IPCC Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
Chevalier, M., Zarzo-Arias, A., Guélat, J., Mateo, R. G. & Guisan, A. Accounting for niche truncation to improve spatial and temporal predictions of species distributions. Front. Ecol. Evol. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2022.944116 (2022).
Google Scholar
Watson, J. E. M. et al. Bolder science needed now for protected areas. Conserv. Biol. 30, 243–248 (2016).
Google Scholar
CBD. Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Draft Decision Submitted by the PRESIDENT. (2022). CBD/COP/15/L.25. https://www.cbd.int/doc/c/e6d3/cd1d/daf663719a03902a9b116c34/cop-15-l-25-en.pdf
CBD. Report of the Expert Workshop on the Monitoring Framework for the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (CBD, 2022).
Chaplin-Kramer, R. et al. Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets. Nat. Ecol. Evol. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-022-01934-5 (2022).
Google Scholar
Watson, J. E. M. et al. The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 599–610 (2018).
Google Scholar
Elbers, J. Las Áreas Protegidas de América Latina: Situación Actual y Perspectivas PARA el Futuro (2011).
Miller, D. C. & Nakamura, K. S. Protected areas and the sustainable governance of forest resources. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 32, 96–103 (2018).
Google Scholar
Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N. E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model. 135, 147–186 (2000).
Google Scholar
Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G. & Jarvis, A. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1965–1978 (2005).
Google Scholar
van Proosdij, A. S. J., Sosef, M. S. M., Wieringa, J. J. & Raes, N. Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models. Ecography 39, 542–552 (2016).
Google Scholar
Breiner, F. T., Guisan, A., Bergamini, A. & Nobis, M. P. Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models. Methods Ecol. Evol. 6, 1210–1218 (2015).
Google Scholar
Phillips, S. J. et al. Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: Implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecol. Appl. 19, 181–197 (2009).
Google Scholar
Thornhill, A. H. et al. Spatial phylogenetics of the native California flora. BMC Biol 15, 96 (2017).
Google Scholar
Radosavljevic, A. & Anderson, R. P. Making better Maxent models of species distributions: Complexity, overfitting and evaluation. J. Biogeogr. 41, 629–643 (2014).
Google Scholar
Kershaw, F. et al. Informing conservation units: Barriers to dispersal for the yellow anaconda. Divers. Distrib. 19, 1164–1174 (2013).
Google Scholar
Venter, O. et al. Targeting global protected area expansion for imperiled biodiversity. PLoS Biol. 12, e1001891 (2014).
Google Scholar
Gaston, K. J. The Structure and Dynamics of Geographic Ranges (Oxford University Press, 2003).
Yin, L., Fu, R., Shevliakova, E. & Dickinson, R. E. How well can CMIP5 simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America?. Clim. Dyn. 41, 3127–3143 (2013).
Google Scholar
